Member Info for wyndrum

So far so good, but at 150p its a bit toppy now (RSI 78.2) , so more chance of a pull back than further rises at the close today.

If it is to fall then back to around 140p would seem about right to attract the next wave of buyers who missed out lower down when 130p went.

The SP is starting to move ahead now because the market has firm indications from the company that results for P1a will be issued before year end, so now would be the time to take a position based on what has been reported. In contrast some have been here for many months maybe years with no return at all on their purchase. Maybe, just maybe the market is not as thick as mince as some believed and take return on capital employed a tad more seriously than others.

Who knows...

Rds, thanks for taking the time to read it, but I think you need to somehow reduce the emotional attachment to to your stock purchase.

Its not so much that CE)'s are inherently untrustworthy when interviewed, its more that what else can they actually say?

Think it through. They can't be nuanced. if they mention the potential pitfalls, for instance, everyone will read that as those pitfalls ARE coming and will immediately sell on the bell. How would you feel then? "Bloody Stupid CEO, pontificating about what MIGHT happen, now look at the SP!!!"

As I said every private company that goes public has done it to raise cheap or free money. and thats why they are public companies. So, once you buy stock in a perennial loss making company you MUST realise that cash raises and therefore dilution and therefore a further anchor on SP appreciation will routinely come around. (The alternative had LB not done this is they would be bust now and you would have nothing.)

If you don't like the risk on this type of venture there are 100's of alternatives to choose from at varying levels of risk and likely return.

Perhaps you should should re-evaluate why you bought HE1 in the first place and what your expectations were then, and now having held for a while and probably knowing a bit more about them and what they are doing, see how the reality has conflicted (or not), with what you thought would happen.

That experience will hold you in good stead for future decisions on when and what to buy.

Legal has taken some stick here for articulating a different approach to the majority here, where he is more comfortable in only buying the stock when the risk becomes minimal. He understands he will miss the first very big jump if/when a discovery is confirmed but his bet will be much safer than buying in now, with the much, much higher risks that go along with that.

The longer you play this game, the more you realise preserving capital is one , if not the, most important facets of running your own portfolio.

Rsd,

This is about as high a risk stock as it is possible to purchase.

The sector it is in (exploration) has far more failures than successes, so right from the get go the odds are against any one of them hitting the motherload.

On top of that this is a minnow who have so little capital that it is more or less a hand-to-mouth operation. This increases the odds of failure (from a shareholder pov) (oh yes, and did I mention it is loss making?)

The way around it if you are attracted to high risk but potential high reward, is to but into a couple of dozen promising exploration companies. Of course that spread of risk also affects potential returns but that is the price you pay and is called risk management.

The other method to help combat the high risk element is never to put so much money that if you lost it all, would "hurt" you emotionally as well as financially.

You are down 45%. If you have put £10k in, that might be giving you sleepless nights. If it were a £100 you wouldn't care.

The only reason private companies become publics ones is to raise "free" money as and when necessary. Any loss making company is always only a matter of months or a year or 2 from the next RI. That's just a fact of life.

As for BoD and CEO's, well, welcome to the "real" world. I never, ever rely on what they say as truthful or honest.

They will be ambiguous, over optimistic and close to downright deceitful, but then, what choice do they have? If they don't come over as enthusiastic, and very bullish, and everything going to plan, and no problems on the horizon, then the SP would be hammered.

Which is why, when it really goes tits-up, it comes out of the blue with no one seeing it coming.

All you can do is think for yourself, Ignore what the BOD ever say, look at the money coming to the money going out and gauge how long before the next call on the share holders to give them more. Research the market they are in. Are they best placed for discovering what they are looking for, or are there bigger, less risky companies doing the same thing?

Never bet what you can't realistically and COMFORTABLY afford to lose...EVER. (This removes emotional attachment to your decision. All you have done is buy a share certificate. Never fall in love with it, because that bit of paper has no feelings for you.)

Always remember you will be the last to know anything.

So, always before you buy, have a plan. What price will you pay to buy the stock (and why, why that price right now?) What do you expect the rise to be? At what price will you sell and again why? If you are wrong and the SP falls, what price will you decide to sell and cut your losses, and why that particular price?) And assuming all goes well, what profit do you expect to make BY WHEN? what time frame are you working to?

If you ever buy a stock without a plan in place based on some sort of your own research/system/logic, then how can you ever know what to do if it goes well or not

Based on your posts rsd, you seem very inexperienced (and very angry).

if you are genuine it would seem you neither have the temperament or understanding of market mechanics to manage your own portfolio. Perhaps get into a managed fund?

Ha! maybe, but they might have to if it would cause a delay beyond the 2 weeks indicated?

Anyway, lets hope this is a very temporary hold up and we get back on course asap :0)

"Logically imo the next RNS will be part fitted and drill turning."

or it won't....

It could say wrong part ordered, something else doesn't work , much longer job to fix etc etc.

Now, I have no idea what will happen but logically, there are a number of scenario's that can play out rather than just the one highlighted.

We just have to wait and see how this plays out.

Ch... it goes UP!

It has stalled around 130p a few times. (More than the end-of-day-close prices suggest as it has, intra day gone there or thereabouts and fallen away relatively sharply)

although historically 140-ish has been a bit of a bogey price I think this will go fairly easily now (safter today) and the next "proper" target is around 160-165p

Obviously "surprising" news will alter the dynamic but assuming that there is no new news then that looks to me most likely.

Certainly the break out today should get on some TA'ers radar I would have thought.

SP-wise...i've seen this before.... I am hoping history repeats itself....

Moneysponge your emotional outburst is misplaced. Traders don't bet with the risk of losing any items of their clothing. plus not all "traders" can or want to short.

I don't know why you think "they" are so stupid?

There is far more risk in shorting than going long. the result is you don't short unless you feel the odds are very heavily stacked in favour of that outcome. Therefore there will have been research done before a bet was placed.

The short case could be, as a trial result date looms, then given most fail, then that could make AVCT a short target. However, when you do the most basic research you would realise that the chance of failure is much less, therefore making the risk greater. This would be a stock to avoid shorting. (Particularly with 2 divisions that either one could surprise the market with new info. and on top of everything else there has been a recent, positive update.)

However Traders do also buy stocks (read as much sarcasm into that as you possibly can please),and therefore some may be waiting for technical indicators to be particularly positive, to reduce risk of any loss before buying.

Still, if it makes you feel better, only people who buy stocks make money and everybody else is as thick as mince who always lose everything when it does not pan out.

Fingers crossed today might be the close at 130p plus.

If/when it does, it starts to lessen the importance of the 140p ish level of resistance as, as that gets older, then the more recent support/resistance levels take on more relevance.

So, assuming 130p goes then although 140-143 will be the next "target" it does not make it as tough a nut to crack as before.

There seems to be a lot of (forward) activity at H&W if there is any doubt on financing. Ergo.....

Rodge, absolutely ignore it.

You can see what happens (from your pov) if you don't: You get a personal defensive reply which in turn you may need to reply to and others may too, dragging in more responses until it either peters out or gets pulled by the moderators.

However once ignored it leaves that poster nowhere to go other than to repeat themselves to potentially such a degree that the moderators pull the post for being disruptive.

However through all this, it must be recognised if the poster who irritates is staying on topic.

If its their view of HE1 either fundamentally or from an investment pov, then their view is as legitimate as any other.

Just because they may see the "facts" in a different potential outcome then so be it, otherwise how do we learn if we never see or consider an alternative view point or idea?

Yes, SD, thats a correct observation but I guess I am just trying to highlight the futility of it, given as you say, it is so prevalant on so many of these BB's.

I think those actions also highlight the highly emotional state of many who do post which if it is possible to take a step back, would realise it is (imo) counter productive to at all times take as an objective view as possible, on events as they unfold.

The more there is focus on the "man" and not the "ball", the more lore likely, or maybe, inevitable consequence of those actions will be the opposite of the overall goal.

At all times in this particular stock, there is either commercial helium there or not. That has not changed.

Will HE! be the ones to discover it, or not? Will they have the resource to discover it or not? Will a new technology emerge where helium is no longer required?

Whether or not any individual through their posts here is able to influence any of those answers, is beyond me.

All we can do is try and examine the risks versus the reward to pass the time while these events that we have zero control over, unfold.

It just appears to me (as it is on every BB, on LSE I pop on to), that a contrary view is validated by the others as a personalised deliberate attempt to get others to sell or be disingenuous in its underlying message.

I would have thought by now on this particular stock that none of us know anything, going forward.

(Broadly). We did not see the rig being bought, we did not see a RI taking place before the drill, we did not see the 2nd drill location, we did not see the rig breaking down.

We do not know if there is commercial helium there either.

It is a very high risk stock and that can be seen by the fact that there in all these years has never been a whiff of takeover, so no major is prepared to buy the licenses HE1 has at this stage and we are currently looking on almost all time SP lows, yet here we are weeks away from discovering the biggest helium fields in the world.

Makes you think (well it does me), that this is so far away from a slam dunk as you can be.

To go after a poster who reminds the majority here of the above and recommends an extremely sensible investment approach to protect and conserve capital, by waiting for results is vilified by some.

I have no idea what the problem is with the rig, or what parts are needed, or the availability of those parts or the time it will take to fix. I have no idea if another part of the rig will fail. (The fact it broke so soon after going into operation does not bode well does it? Perhaps it was no wonder it was up for sale?)

imo, emotional detachment is key when trying to navigate through the myriad of unknowns when buying into stocks.

Stocks like these are a leap further and simply a gamble on a par with going to the bookies.

An awful lot of "what ifs" have to fall into place one after the other, to eventually get to the destination we all want.

We should always be aware that the odds are against that outcome and bet accordingly.

But its just my opinion. We can all do what we like, but I would not waste time complaining thats its the fault of another poster on a BB for any ills the SP endures.

All the best

Regarding LW, I would just council that what he actually says as opposed to what soem posters view his motives rae, seem to me quite different.

He has, several times, expressed clearly and unambiguously his view that based on an investment risk reward basi,s he does not see a compelling argument to invest at this stage.

The criticism if him then degenerates into a belief that he does not want the share to succeed and that somehow posting his view affects the SP.

To re-confirm. His expectation not to buy based on a likely hood of a RI, was CORRECT. His current situation is that there is greater chance of failure than success is completely valid and stastistcally CORRECT.

The fact he posts at all is that he is looking for, in his view the right time to buy, based on his criteria.

As this is an investment BB, this view should be welcomed as a natural counter balance to the unavoidable echo chamber these BB's promote simply to realise there is always at least 2 options for any outcome.

Its hard, really hard, to get rich quick, but actually very, very easy to get rich slow. The problem is by the time we work that out there is not so much time (or capital) left.

Just my opinion, dyor etc

I am the same, D, but my timing is rubbish. I pick stocks, expect them to go up by time x then transfer to new stock, ride that wave than transfer.... etc etc. And then you get a rig breakdown... its like they know what I am up to :0))

(My charts are back on thanks)

Morning D, I have bought a few G4m (137p) as after the great rise the pull back seems done.

Did you stick with them?

All the best

Nice move on the top up D!

I imagine this is what (amongst other things), the new PRr co. is doing: getting Mags to use AVCT personal for articles.

Yes, LG I think this was IT. It would have been too easy when the drill failed for it to have got out.

The RNS was close to 20 yesterday and today out in very oversold territory. It rallied more than I expected so is still around 20 but suggests further moves up in the short term I more liokely than falls.

The huge volume also suggests there is (still) a lot of interest in this stock and should the news be good in the future, then the rise will be perhaps greater than i was starting to think likely.

Just my opinion. dyor etc etc.