Member Info for wyndrum

I am starting to get confused here Wolfy: Whats your point?

Do you think LB is playing with a straight bat and is being "professional" or not?

It seems to me you saw the raise coming based on what she said. So you were not surprised. and indeed profited I think from it.

Since then HE1 have kept to their timelines where they could and were a bit ahead of time on re-commencement on the drill.

They have released a few tweets to just let us know how things are going and all is on schedule.

As I said, I am not sure what your point is?

"Shame really, as ~ 6p into results has been distinctly underwhelming. It would NOT have been this low if they had reported gas shows imo."

Except all that would have happened assuming the SP had risen, that there would have been more SP volatility as people sold into the rally/SP rise/De-risked.

Then, a falling SP prior to results could have made people very jittery too. so, I am not sure any of it matters.

It was a binary play 10 years ago and its still a binary play today. The only difference now is, we should, should, know the out come in the next few weeks.

My point Wolfiy, is that is what DM said and it did not lead to anything. Ergo that info is not meaningful. She never said she would give a running commentary and said she would let us know when TD was reached. therefore there is nothing actually to criticise her for that I can see. (She let us know yesterday that all was well and that we are close to TD so , there we are.

Thats a matter of opinion Wolfy because DM talked it up through the drill and then it all turned to dust. So I am guessing she does not want to repeat that.

So I get the impression she is a bit by the book. Also its immarterial. The SP will do its thing when actual data is released rather than "its looking good " etc etc

So I don't agree she is poor at comms and as for the SP, that should not be "manipulated" by her unless she has the actual data to hand rather than expressing her opinion.

I Spose we might get a tweet today. Not mad about the need to do them all the time but, it is behind schedule and they have had a rig break, so the market again will get jittery.

Certainly if not today then, we either get an RNS tomorrow or a tweet with a bit more of an explanation where we are.

Well, its never done till its done, but joking aside, my guess is based on a relatively short, knee jerk reaction. Give it a few months or so and the SP could be much nearer 500p that 50p.....

So many ifs, so many buts, so many maybe's...

Yes, 130p is turning out to be the "new" 142p

Very difficult to judge what the SP reaction would be IF this turns out to be positive.

20's (to me now seems too low because of the 2nd drill in a bigger? field to come very quickly), plus there has been an increase in the cost of helium and the overall bigger reserves, plus it would be completely de-risked, so it might take a few days but as the helium rises up and the potential sinks in (see what I did there?), then who knows but I think nearer 50p. That would be about a £500, Mk cap which again sounds about right in the near term.

(On the other hand its all rose-tinted guess work....)

In that case its the ultra reliable H&L platform yet again............

(Thanks)

Tried to do a small dummy buy on H&L and I could not do so....

Hmmm

I think so too. (not that means anything!:0))

I think that was essential as the market just needed some confirmation there were no problems.

So far so good

You're getting good at this D!!!!!

This is borderline trading!!!

Huffy, May i ask why didn't you sell before now?

Fish, there is no way of knowing.

There was in some part (large or small?), an expectation of an RNS this morning and the lack of it may have spooked a few.

Whether it is significant or not who knows, but fwiw, one, these things never run to time (or rarely do in my experience), and also I thought a Tuesday Wednesday this week assuming no probs was always more likely than today. Certainly I think its reasonable to here something this week.

If no news tomorrow then a tweet might be helpful.... :0))

Thanks for the reply Wolfy, when you say:

"not all that fussed' attitude "

I get that but at the same time there are time when the risk reward is skewed to the investors benefit.

So, here's my thinking:

This is very personal to me, so may be of no benefit to anyone else but, if I am out then I stop reading any info on the company. (whats the point? otherwise it can play with your head a bit too much, but like I say that just might be me),If I am looking to get back into the company then that will by definition be when conditions to a more positive return are favorable. In which case I keep a close eye on it , just in case.

Normally in this set up as I think we all expected in the time line of events, placing, spud, (ok breakdown but then fixed ahead of schedule), an appreciating SP rather then a flat to falling one.

If the SP had appreciated over the last days and weeks, then the potential SP appreciation on a successful outcome would have been less, But its the opposite:

The chances of success are still the same but I would suggest the SP "should be somewhere around 10-15p (given where it was last time. Mitigating circumstances are a different economic climate (risk averse) and of course dilution, but I have attempted to factor those in. The plus case is that the drill is fit for purpose and there is more info which "should" improve the chance of success (assuming the bloody stuff actually exists and its not the Unicorn of the Elementary Table).

Anyway, I guess my over-elaborated point is (sorry), given its a very risky game (whatever stock is chosen), the PI needs to stay on the ball (whatever that criteria involves, just in case an opportunity presents itself.

And having said all that, you may ultimately be right in staying out, but the risk reward seemed to justify an investment on Friday (to me) DYOR etc

Morning Legal,

If your 2nd scenario came to pass and they did not release results on this drill the SP would tank anyway. Anyway they are obliged to release SP moving data asap as there would surely be a leak while the 2nd drill was in work

You don't have to answer this obviously but heres a question if I may:

Assuming you buy in on the back of a good drill result you would still factor in a potential loss i presume, (say 10% or 15% of your initial capital) in case there was a SP fall and the charts gave you pause for thought or something red flagged your investment.

So under that assumption (that could be wrong, but at the same time understanding your risk appetite you must? factor in downsides even on less riskier trades), Why didn't you place the potential 10% loss figure prior to the drill results as that should I think yield a 100-200% increase in the SP?

If the drill failed you have only lost the amount you were prepared to risk on the "de-risked" entry point, so for the same potential loss(and risk) you have a much bigger (potential) offsetting gain. And as this is all about risk reward ,I am surprised you did not go down that path?

Some buyers get fixated on the "final" SP rather than the profit they would reasonably like to make.

Some think its crazy to sell at 10% profit when you might make 5 times that or more on a (speculative) stock.

I find it helps before entering a purchase what do I want/reasonably expect to make profit wise and in what timescale.

That way it makes it easier to bank the profit you expected when it arrives, rather than potentially getting caught up with hanging on for more and then seeing it often disappear.

If the individual starts to see that they are selling prior to more profit being made it may be a sign that their stock picking criteria is good enough to maybe up the profit expectation.

A plan is so important I think, before entering the trade. If some sort of discipline can be exercised then the individual can start to extrapolate a more profitable model.

For instance 10% a month profit would soon add up (particularly if it is compounded.)

But if the stocks that are picked are high risk and cannot be accurately timed, then maybe those are not the stocks to invest in if the 10% profit per month is the goal.

The more I do this the less "fun" it becomes and the more of a business it turns into.

Each to his own, of course as these are just my musings.

Just an observation of stock picking being a closer refection of life than perhaps some posters think Indy.

And as in life, opportunity never comes with a sticker saying " opportunity" but with the warning "Danger Danger" writ large over it. Its only in hindsight we get to see the outcome of our past actions.

The perennial question always is: Can we (or do we) learn from them.

So stock picking for many that do it for a hobby think its a stand alone exercise without realising their actions tend to be a close reflection of their character.

All together now .... Om Ah Hum

"In the meantime, the appeals process will not impede or obstruct ongoing conversations being held with several counterparties in relation to the most optimum pathway to monetise the project and the Company continues to make progress as planned."

yeah... right....

That is some lengthy conversation that has been going on that boils down to: Do you want it, yes or no? How much will you pay for it?

Difficult to get past first base if you don't know it can legally go ahead....