Member Info for wyndrum

"I am passionate about not wanting to lose my money"

well this ain't the game for that!

ha ha :0))

All the best

Well I am trying to point out that I an not trying to or indeed creating any fear.

Fear is the eye of the reader not the poster.

Why would anyone's posts make them fearful?

If they are comfortable with the amount they have bet on HE1 then its irrelevant what anyone says. Self doubt is one thing if the reasons for buying the stock in the first place have altered. If they are "fearful" then it suggests they have over committed and this emotional response would confirm it.

Fear and greed are the terrible twins in this game and you should never fall foul of them.

Fear is not self defeating and strikes me as an odd statement.

If HE1 fails then being fearful or happy in the interim will make no difference. Likewise if all goes to plan then Ditto.

My point is, these emotional states will have no impact on the outcome and therefore the investor should never give into either of them as they are not only self-indulgent but skew objective thought. (Well, that's the way I see it.)

You take an optimistic view on the current situation. I am trying to view it from what the market may be thinking about it.

We could both be right and wrong. Either way it makes no difference as neither of us have remotely enough info to know. So we are guessing. This is not a stock that "research" helps with. Hoping for the best outcome will not influence the outcome.

This is simply a bet and the best returns will come with the highest risk. If you think the market has misjudged the risk reward at 4.5-5p per share then fill your boots. If you think they are right then take the Legal approach.

Me: I bought for the outcome, but not so much as I care one way or the other. I did not expect a RI before the drill. I did not expect the rig to break down within a week. This has affected my timeline to success or failure and due to the dilution affected my expected rate of return. So, its pretty crappy, but the returns will still be significant IF they discover commercial Helium, so I will carry on holding.

Rog, "We are the market as said previously rumours and speculation affect market confidence and the nefarious amongst us will play on it and feed more of it. I have seen nothing ambiguous about what has been official reported, even if you are personally nervous about it."

Well I am not remotely nervous about any of it, and the fact that you (as well as the rest of us) don't know what the fault is, what part has been ordered and can only go by a vague description from LB with a reasonably tight but certainly not exclusive timeline for a fix, is pretty ambiguous to me.

The market hastes uncertainty and this has an uncertain timeline to it. The fact that it is close to all time lows shows the lack of confidence the market currently has in HE1, but they are much more on the LegalWolf opinion of risk reward.

Its not they they don't think HE1 will win out , they simply don't want to take the risk at the present time with a disabled rig without knowing exactly when it will be up and running again. This is a company with a serial track record of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and the market has plenty of other companies to look at in the meantime.

Ok, rog, I may have misinterpreted your post regarding the ease of the likely repair.

We have gone from replacing door handles on a car to spilt milk in the canteen to " I make NO diagnosis other than it will be fixed if it's fixable." and " We just have to hope the required components are readily available, "

As for the worse case... I can actually think of worse case outcomes on this but was only trying to highlight that the market does not like uncertainty and anything ambiguous it will assume the worse exactly based on disregarding what CEO's say as they rarely or never give the full picture.

Hopefully LB will be the exception to the rule but I am not holding my breath.

My point was we have no idea what went wrong or the cost of the replacement.

I dismiss what LB says because I don't think she could say anything else. (She couldn't say it was open ended on time or cost as the SP would tank... oh hang on) so she gives a timeframe that in the great scheme of things is ok. Then if we miss the 2 week window she can then say its on its way and all we be done in the next 7-10 days which would go down better then saying its going to be the best of a month to fix this.

"....before anyone knows the facts!"

Which we don't, do we Rog?

So your trained Mechanic diagnosis of it easily being fixed when you don't know the fault let alone the repair times, let alone the availability of the part(s) necessary (which there is still a global problem on parts availability and shipment), to fix the problem seems premature, to me.

As for LB saying in 2 weeks well, fingers crossed but again as a yardstick of never taking what CEO's say as that reliable, who knows... (but thats just me), but what else could she say?

Rodge,

Yes, but your analogy is not accurate. Its not a car, it's a multi-million pound second hand Drill Rig, and its not a door handle its (apparently) a gearbox (which is more akin to the engine in a car).

So yes machines break down , but it broke down on a major component within about a week of being used.

I am just saying that they may be making the market nervous (as it well know, it hates uncertainty.)

It also highlights the risks that don't just stop at whether or not there is commercial Helium down below.

Dave, "The investment is less risky in the sense that because the price is so low a new investor will loose less of their capital proportionately if anything goes wrong"

The SP is irrelevant its the amount you invest. If you invest £10k at 10p per share or 5p its still £10k that can go west.

(Obviously if you were going to invest £10k and reduce it to £5 than your argument works but.... I don't think thats how investors work the amounts they commit,)

All the best

"While taking on board the fact that any exploration investment has risks this one is less risky than it ever has been"

I don't think so. Its a s risky as ever it was. HE is either there or not.

The company may be in a "better" position to find the answer but the market is not convinced. (And neither am I actually).

The drill breaking straight away now puts a cloud over the durability of the drill. It reduces its "asset" value too to potentially rent out. It also adds to potential delays which with the rainy season not so far away brings that into sharp focus

Drills are expensive, therefore parts/repairs are expensive.

Anyway, HE1 don't seem to have any (SP) goodwill left in the market due to the uncertainty the rig breakdown has caused.

What difference does it make? what difference doe it EVER make?

The price is the price and is only really relevant when you specifically want to buy or sell and then it does not matter if its straight or crooked or what ever shenanigans may or may not be going on, there will be nothing that can be done.

"although historically 140-ish has been a bit of a bogey price I think this will go fairly easily now (after today) and the next "proper" target is around 160-165p"

So we have had a couple of days in and around this area.

The unusual (from a TA perspective ) thing is that buyers seem content to buy into "overbought" territory.

Yesterday it peaked around 165p and fell back to 150 before closing up on the day at 154. (the RSI this morning started at 79).

It will be interesting where this finishes today because (and I hate to fall into this particular cliche... but...) there does seem to be extra activity between 1-2:30 which indicates the US wakes up and gets involved.

If the overbought indicator is going to be (at least temporarily) ignored it will concentrate the minds of would-be buyers wonderfully as there then does become a real FOMO issue.

Anyway, presently ignoring the RSI is, to my mind, very bullish as it is indicating there is no rush to sell when usually it would be a trigger for profit taking.

(I hope I am speaking too soon)

Apolgies Steve, but I thought your first post was implying something illegal when you said "It’s a familiar pattern the MM pull the share price back down trigger a few stop losses and frighten weak holders into selling before allowing the price to rise again. All part of filling a big buyers order."

("frighten weak holders into selling " is quite the assumption.)

What difference does it make to the MM's what the SP is?

Anyway, the SP will be what it is and the only important price is the one when you want to sell.

Steve, I don't know what your experience is in buying stocks (how many you have bought over how many years and what your research/motivation/system was to buy at the price you did, when you did.)

Their (MM's) job, is to make an orderly market, on the way up and the way down. That allows them to make money. Thats why the spread will move about intra day.

You seem to assume that the first stop is illegal behaviour.

Its like we all go shopping but most us don't go shop lifting even when the situation might present itself.

I just think you are inventing convoluted illegal scenarios rather than just accepting very basic crowd psychology as the most obvious reason for rises and falls.

Many people buy simply when they see a share rising on the basis "someone knows something" and that fuels a more dramatic rise. then having made some mney (or not) they sell. ("The trend is your friend")

Not so many people buy on the way down and normally wait to see where it looks like it has bottomed out at first.("Never catch a falling knife")

This will all being well, be a very choppy stock as the price could rise a lot quickly triggering big volumes of sells and new buyers etc, until the market decides a "fair" value for AVCT and it settles down.

So Steve, the SP only ever falls due to arbitrary MM pricing?

Never mind some people might just be selling having banked extremely good profits over a very short time period.

Maybe the psychology which you admit to, liking the SP going up, deters people buying when they see the SP falling?

Maybe some are reluctant to buy now because they feel they have missed the boat from last week and don't want to risk being spiked now?

If people don't want to buy and others want to sell, then the price will fall naturally to where the 2 can meet.

MM's make there money on the spread, it does not matter to them what the SP is. Why can it only be MM manipulation when you see a fall?

Ice, "if you wait till the phase 1a full data package release and all the bells and whistles that’s comes with that....you are probably going to miss the boat."

So SP goes to, i don't know, 600p, and that's it? that's the peak of AVCT SP?

When the news breaks we should all sell up as the boat now has sailed?

Whats wrong with buying when the news comes out and maybe selling a few months or years down the line for £20? (or whatever)

You buy in now before the data is released and therefore there is still the chance that it will disappoint the market but if it good you will make more profit.

Its just risk reward. and the individuals appetite for risk and time frames and expectation of return

EGTP, considering I have stayed in this stock for 4 years (and I might add, also separately traded it to very good effect) I have never been in the "concede" metal state you seem to think.

If this trial failed then that's when I would have to concede my long time approach and holding in this company was flawed and misplaced.

Because I have never cared about the success or failure of AVCT as an investment, I have for the most part remained emotionally detached and in my eyes been able to look at the setbacks more objectively, weighing up the alternative scenarios.

That has been often been mis-interpreted as "negative" as though an emotional reaction to events has any bearing on the reality of my betting slip.

VR, the (potential) difference this time is the statement of data results due and the new timeline outlined which for the first time ramped up and clarified time to market so that at last the market could get a feel for when this could be monitised.

The reasonable counter argument could be the constant missed timelines of previous statements from AVCT but this time it seemed to definitive to be wrong.

It was really very black and white this time round.

Thats good of you to be so frank rsd.

Again, to try and calibrate thought processes:

Presumambly when you bought, you thought that the odds were (and still are) very good of HE1 being successful.

Did you think it was a 100% bet (ie no chance at all of failure) or 90% or 80%, say?

Because another way of looking at it is to have a £12k bet on a 9-1 odds on horse. Would you ever contemplate doing that?

Its not a perfect analogy because if the odds on the horse won it would only generate just over a 1000 profit. But HE1 still have to be successful and the horse still has to win for any profit to be realised.

If it then comes down to risk reward, ie its not worth betting on a 0dds on nag, you have to realise that if you predict that the SP will go to 50p on a discovery thats a 10-1 bet. Would you bet £12k on a10-1 shot?

The market has valued (rightly or wrongly) He1 at 4.6p currently. Therefore they are saying its a high risk bet right now.

By investing the amount you have relative to your emotional pain threshold, you believe you know more than the collective market. Do you really believe that?

Just food for thought

I imagine rsd, that the games up if both drills are dusters.

So, devils advocate, how would you feel (emotionally) if you lost your £12k investment?

Its rhetorical but nevertheless a key question I think for you (and us all) to ponder

No