Member Info for wyndrum

The only neggo Turbs, is that somebody "knows" something and thats why there is the constant selling.

But, how are we to know? it all comes back to the absolute easy peasy solution: Never bet what you can't comfortably afford to lose, and then none of it matters.

I get that LW, what I don't get is why the SP is falling.

Why would you sell now (today) rather than last week say?

It seems a bit late in the day to de-risk.... there has been plenty of time to do that prior to today.

It really is more complex than some here are giving credit for.

The west has its own objectives just as china or russia has any they will use propaganda to achieve those aims if it suits them.

I am not apologising for Russia, but this war suits the west very well, in the sense that no Nato troops are involved.

I think i read a little while ago that 5% of the US arms budget has been sent to Ukraine with the result of a 50% degradation of Russia's defense. (Which is a pretty good return form the the US's point of view.)

Anyway, politics is a pretty divisive subject and once views become entrenched, facts do very little to change those views.

Its a disappointing state of affairs to discuss what the SP might be, either sub or just above 6p, in the middle of the drill.... Oh well....

Oh ffs, yeboa I have been a shareholder for over 3 years. give it a rest would you....

I already replied to that Yeboa at the time.

I, as I am sure you know based on past AS utteranances, pretty sceptical of what he says in interviews and presentations.

However, even I would find it incredible, with the language he used, if it disappoints from here

The one thing I took away as not so much a negative , but a bit straw -clutching, was when AS said their had been an "up-tic" in commercial interest.

That's about as small a increase as possible on the scale of interest that can be measured.

So I took that as (at this stage) very unlikely for any license money to come in, in the short term

It would have been in his interest to hype that up to maybe draw out others if some were casting an eye over AVCT.

Anyway, who knows, passes the time though...

Ice, I am pretty much on the same page as you too but it looks pretty clear that the market will sit on its hands and wait for the data before the re-rate comes along on a scale we all expect.

In that Archer clip he explains (I think accurately) why the SP Spikes and then falls back.

Anyway not long now...( I may have thought that before....)

Cybs,

Being successful in stock picking is not influenced by by being either positive or negative. These are emotional responses to holding what is basically a betting slip. It has no effect on the result.

If other people are affected by emotional posts then they will, sooner or later, unless very lucky, lose their money,

Ice, this is devils advocate-type response but:

according tot he stats you refer to:

"9 biopsies

2-4 patients STS seeing clinical efficacy signals

2-4 patients seeing no tumour progression

1 STS patient seeing significant tumour reduction.

40 patients dosed"

So 40 patients dosed: but is it possible that the 2-4 showing efficacy(lets say 2), are the same 2 as seeing no tumour progression and that one of those 2 saw tumour reduction covering 9 biopsies?

On other words 2 out of 40 with only 1 showing tumour reduction?

I am not saying this is the case but maybe that's an interpretation that could be put on it hence Archer's caution until the hard data is revealed?

There has to be some equivocality that the market sees that we don't (hence the SP) and maybe the above are the 2 extremes?

"Come on Charles which one is it? Is it a potential paradigm shift in cancer care ? or is it a bog standard high risk investment based entirely on historical precedent ??"

Thats the whole point of his take: he says that it looks great but what if when the official data is released at the end of this year, that it works, but not as well as AS has been saying?

He explains that that is where the risk lies and that further, if it does disappoint then the SP reaction could be severe so its just a warning to not get carried away as so many trials at whatever stage disappoint rather than succeed.

Until that official data is released at the end of DE7 then the market will sit on its hands and wait.

(He admits to being a share holder buying when it fell below 100p.)

Hardly contentious and perfectly reasonable.

I take it then you have listened to Charles Archer's view? Or is he spreading FUD where he explains the risks and the high risk stock that AVCT represents?

Some might think it balanced, others clearly won't hear a single view against AVCT and will do all they can to denigrate and dismiss any contrary view.

If anyone takes the "confident" air of a CEO as proof positive of anything I suggest you let a Fund Manager look after you portfolio.

As an example a certain David Minchin springs to mind... you may not have heard of him, but its worth looking up him and the company he ran to see how it turned out.....

Then why mention it could be spun off to raise money?

Thats my point....it seemed a strange remark

Ice, its relatively new as Coris was only bought a few months ago and LD is only coming up to a year old!.

I just think it odd to put it in the frame for 2 reasons.

If it was going well which you would expect because thats why they bought it, then develop it further and the revenue over the next couple of years could still be useful/very useful. Esp as it seemed to be a vehicle to get affimers out there more quickly. So why Even raise the option of a spin off?

Or its not going as expected and is not worth the amount of resource it will need to make it worthwhile/viable and if it was put up for sale I would not expect value above what they paid for it , which would not look great.

(Perhaps it is harder in the DX market than AVCT thought, and thats the reason its such a fragmented industry.)

According to Ophidian's tweet, regarding future funding, AS said "....we have also hinted at the potential to spin out the DX business at some point"

That's odd (or maybe telling), because future funding could be anytime 6 months onwards (given there is enough money to late next year).

Which means that's not very much time to develop either new business but AS raises the spectre of it being sold off.

Given the (presumable) continuing profit from LD has not been sufficient to put the group in overall profit thus far, its difficult to see how much the company would be worth?

I don't know, it just struck me as odd to talk about potentially selling 2 businesses in so short a time having just bought them.

I wonder if this "new" commercial attitude that we have surmised may have taken place with a bit of an about turn in MTD and starting the next phase and acceleration the whole process etc etc, is also being used on the DX division with the conclusion its a distraction that is not worth the continued investment at this stage?

RJ, I get it, really, but I am just trying to explain how risk reward works.

The very fact that in this example (HE1), we have had this play out last year, but at higher levels, should expose the risk element. (Its up to the individual what risk they want to expose themselves to). When HE1 failed many here said to go to ADV as that was a much more "sure fire thing" with much less risk and that bombed as well.

In my experience its hard to get rich quick but relatively easy to get rich slowly. Given your age I would not be in so much of a rush..... :0))

Rodge,

thats not the point. Its risk reward.

If you only have a £1000 its financially wreckless to put it all in one stock and an exploration company at that!

So in a real world situation you may have £20k to invest. Putting 5% of it in HE1 now, is a lot still, given the risk, of your portfolio, but if it does follow your theorectocal example, you would have risked most of your £1000 for £4k return or waited and put in £20k at 10p and made another £20k almost risk free.

Thats the difference I think between PI's and II's. They tray to maximise gain for the least risk.

I agree SB, this is better than I hoped for.

His statements suggest the blue touch paper has just been lit. (or rather he is lighting it.)

I guess the smarter ones are discretely putting on the dark glasses so as not to be blinded by the explosion about to come.

On a more light hearted note, its the first time he has spoken enthusiastically and the SP has not fallen!

Skipps,

thats the difference between gamblers and investors.

PI's do everything they can to minimise risk. Us Pi's don't give a Rats... we just see the potential $ signs and pile in asap

Good luck