Member Info for wyndrum

Hi D, I know what you mean and nothing is infallible but the market is a mixture of PI's and II's.

Its just trying to "read the tape" as it use to be termed, to see what the underlying moves are. Sometimes the "smart money quietly sells while the PI's are still jumping on board.

This is a very binary play now. There are few stings left to its bow. The smart money looks to me, to be sitting on the side waiting for confirmation of success, then they will pile in, (who wouldn't).

I hindsight the pro's came out when covid peaked and it was obvious the LFT market was shrinking rapidly and AVCT had indeed for whatever reason missed the boat. That left the trial which they figured was years away from definitive data so took their money elsewhere.

Like I say give them a reason and they will come back in.

Again its obvious and simple how the market works. it just continually surprises me the level of emotion displayed here when stating the very obvious.

the only thing i am sayiing goldie is don't over commit.

and in fact looking at your lists if's, could's and maybe's was riven with assumptions not based on any data yet available.

and you thjink i am muddying the water.

on a completely separate note: are none of you ****ed off about what as said during the lft experience and what actually happened? does it never bother you that he misses every self imposed timeline? i am genuinely amazed based on what has happened in the very recent past you are all so accepting of someone who has had such a poor forecasting record. hey ho.

Hop2 (and others) thank you for your reflections on my post.

Right: The chart

Bear in mind I use the end of day close time and daily time interval for my analysis.

Well, Charts can always be interpreted both ways with equal vigour when its gone into a big quick fall.

Because its still falling (ie no upturn) then there is nothing to say it won't continue.

However if you overlay indicators onto the chart it may give supporting evidence to more falls or suggest a rise is coming.

First my personal view:

I think this was a tree shake that got out of control. There was a support at 8.85p. A comfortable place for the SP to retrace to to unwind some over bought(ish) indicators before the next leg up.

The presentation came out and I think some selling started. (During the interview the SP actually rose, so there looked to be some buyers, but that might have been the MM's to gauge investor's appetite. In any event it quickly triggered selling into this small rise, and once it started it didn't stop.

That would have told the MM's that this has a fragile base and they don't want to be holding unaccounted stock. Thats why you get NT's and sharp falls.

Anyway, now after the invent and thinking about it ,I am of the view rises now are more likely than further falls. (Of course I could be 100% wrong because I have not yet invented a time machine, nor away to predict the future.)

If we take a step back: at 5.1p the RSI was 18. (Anything below 20 is a very strong buying signal as the stock is very oversold. In this instance it went up to 9.8p and the RSI hit 80 saying it was very over bought so falls were (much) more likely than rise.

In between all this there is a support at 7.5p and currently the SP is on that support at 7.52. However there is just below another kind of support at 7.3 and then a few at 7.0 - 7.1p. (That is a nice half way house between the previous high and low and can be seen as a 50% Fibonacci retrace indicating the up trend is still intact.)

On the intra day chart of Friday it fell to 2 lows of 7.22 and 7.2 bouncing off both times and made an RSI pattern that suggested a reversal was underway. According that intra day chart HE1 closed at 7.6p

I said on Friday at 7.3p having seen these 2 lows and RSI pattern, I felt the move down was over and picked up few more at 7.38p

So, the 2 options now are its recovering or it may fall further to test 7.0p or thereabouts.

Charts do not work independently of news so if a cash raise does not materialise on Monday or Tuesday then I imagine people will get back on. If one is announced the SP reaction will depend on the detail.

So I have taken an early view that this was a tree shake and an opportunity to pick up some at a good price. I could equally be wrong but at some stage you have to pull the trigger. So I have.

Its just a gamble. Black or Red, but red has come up 5 times in a row, surely its black's turn now? Who knows.

Just my opinion DYOR

Of course GJ, I am one of the few it seems here that excepts that every holding I have is a gamble. Even if its a ftse 100. co.

There are different levels of risk or perhaps better put downside, but thats why you only ever bet what you can comfortably afford to lose.

Thats why I am sometimes taken aback at the vitriol here on this stock that has to date serially failed on just about everything its done (commercially), and yet still has this burning "loyalty" to ultimately a bit of paper bought from a third party, that very few will still be in profit from.

These displays of (imo) blind devotion to a company they have no influence or deep understanding of (that has demonstrably let them down in the past with false promises) is typical of crowd psychology at work.

What it is not in any sense or of my understanding is "investing".

I hope for all of us it pays off, both financially and the breakthrough it offers in cancer treatment.

Hi DG:

"Wyn, I know you take the sp as an important indicator but The Market got the valuation somewhat wrong when the sp was: 25 Apr 2021 10:31, SP 233.00. Equally It could be wrong now at 99p couldn't it?

The market (broadly) only knows what we (pi's) know. The difference imo is that this "broader" market includes II's and analysts, and professionals investors in the field. (Also they is a greater longevity of experience than here, they have seen it all before on countless other stocks. Ones that have succeed and the majority that have failed.

So I think they are more objective and less emotional.

But, if the info is saying that the LFT is going to happen and the company will make money then thats all they have. The difference is they are less forgiving when deadlines are missed. They bought the stock, then get let down and maybe bonus's are affected and all the rest, so next time round they hold back a bit. Then deadlines are missed again, and again.

Now I think II's will only buy in now when there is a much clearer picture about where AVCT actually are.

I think some reactions here are good examples that if you are "out" then what a risk you are taking as good news could drop at any time (which is true). The premise is therefore never sell, just in case the surprise news arrives. The problem with this strategy is that you can hang on to a loss making position too long. The other super obvious point is...so what?

So the news drops, the SP rises, so, buy in then when its de-risked! Who cares if its 200p per share if it goes up further. Thats what the market imo, is waiting for. The risk reward now based on the past, makes this stock unattractive. When that changes the market most likely will charge in.

Remember, You can't lose money by being out of the market.

Thats why I have said in the past that any who have bought this stock are in fact gamblers because on any definition of the term, holding this stock is a gamble of sufficient proportions that professionals in this field (stock investing) won't touch it (yet)

So its not so much right or wrong per se, but when there is a disconnect between my opinion of the SP and the markets I always look very carefully at the pro's and cons. I work from the assumption they probably know more than me and maybe I should not be too conceited in thinking they are probably as thick as mince.

i think i posted a little while ago that as any stock gets close to a definitive result (drill, big contract decision, hospital trial etc) it very much concentrates the stock holders mind.

many in this case might have held all for years and "suffered" the first drill debacle with never banking profits, to where we are now. up til now you have had literally years to buy or sell or add or trade or whatever. now however we are getting to the business end (again) and it concentrates the mind wonderfully.

the angst and emotion on display here over the last few days is not going anywhere over the next 8 weeks

my take on this is that always, always, always, whatever you think you know about a company , you don't. you don't even know what they mean when they publically say things! and even when they are ambiguous, they could also be lying. (or at least disingenuous.)

this stock is absolutely binary and always has been. you are taking a punt on whether it discovers commercial helium or not.

once you place your bet it is further clouded by what price do you think it could rise to if successful. cash raises, smaller helium wells than expected, longer time frame to get job done, more cash raises, old equipment breaking down, yet more cash raises and all the rest, affect the ultimate outcome, none of which any of us have the faintest clue about.

so, just don't over commit.

don't put one penny more into this (or any stock) that if it all went south it would not financially affect you at all.

the problem with this delicious ,simple, obvious, and well recommended solution is that it by-passes the individual's emotional pull of greed. and with greed comes its pal, fear. fear that you will miss out, fear that keeps you up at night if it was a duster, but then greed again, that if it goes even better than you expect (and you do day dream about that scenario) how rich you will be.

just don't over commit and it all goes away. otherwise the *****in here as only just started, so buckle up (or maybe turn off?)

Donkey,

The trouble is (in my experience of all of these BB's) is that some just see the things they want to see and make assumptions about people and agenda's and all the rest of it. The thing is though if you and I were on exactly the same page/wavelength and agreeing with each other you would even consider the possibility that i might have an agenda? I doubt it. Am i wrong?

So its only a difference of opinion that I think is clouding then your rationality of (this) situation.

I know I bang on but the situation with avct is always evolving , whether it was LFT, trial, trial data, further DE's buying companies, cash raises or whatever, it progresses, so as it does, so does it alter my view of it.

As I don't "care" about it I find that I am quite removed from the emotion of it all. So if (and I am not there yet), if I decide to put my money elsewhere I will, but there will no drama, no resentment, no gnashing of teeth and all the rest of it. It will just be a "balanced" decision.

Anyway, it will turn out as it will, all our thoughts and ideas will not alter a single jot of data.

I'm not, for one, demanding anything, but If I wanted to be a chemistry professor then thats what i would have studied for.

However I bought stock off a broker in AVCT to make money. And I do have experience in that.

So while this may come good (or may not, who knows), for the time that it is taking it is starting to make the investment reward shrink.

(I don't know about you but 3 years (and counting) to go backwards is not great and please remember its AS that constantly misses the self imposed time deadlines not anyone here demanding anything. Coupled with numerous commercial failures does raise some red flags for me.

Results are due late september and for me it will a supreme irony if the DX companies recently show growth and greater profits as AVCT's DX strand never did.

Still each to his own but my patience is wearing thin. Just thought I's share.

Donkey I have been accused of multiple things on this BB over the years and not a single one has been true. So its with some amusement I have to read you're "insight" into my character you profess to be certain of as like all the rest your arrogance gets the better of your reason.

(And by the way, how would you define a " Dog of a share" We have all bought them at least once over the years. so its actually a genuine question, because obviously we didn't think that when we originally purchased the stock. Is it just a hindsight thing?)

Anyway, I am not saying this a dog of a share although its been a tough buy and hold for most I imagine.

But for me the data of DE 6 is going to be instructive with regard to my holding. I can live with one more DE if real progress and something a bit more definitive than the normal vague AS statements accompany it, otherwise I'll reduce or completely sell and then just forget about it.

(I know this puts a lot in a difficult position wishing for a particular outcome.)

Groot, "Anyone spreading negativity or trying to generate concerns on this board has an agenda and it’s not to protect you or your investment."

Very noble

What if you had posted that when the LFT and the SP at 280p, were in full cry?

What makes you think you know so much more than anybody else to make such a statement? And what if you are wrong?

Anything that makes people double check their original criteria fro buying any stock is not inherently bad as you suggest.

Its not self pity, its sarcasm .. oh well.

Don, I thought we had just been through that perhaps the gaps in the "empirical data" leave room for quite a bit of leeway as to what is actually taking place.

Reading D G's post is quite the reminder of what AS says and what comes to pass. Why anyone puts much store on what he says based on what has happened previously is quite the mystery to me. (Who knew an Antigen test would have an antibody in it?)

The reason I find it easy to take (always on any stock) a sceptical view is that I don't care about the company or the result because I am not over committed. I want to win, but hey ho, in this game its never one after the other, there are always stocks that fail to deliver as expected. Thats the game.

Some here as think that the explanation of the low SP was that the market was as THICK AS MINCE. Who knows, maybe it is. Some think it is market manipulation. Maybe they are right too.

Clearly many here are perplexed, if the data is as good as some here believe, why the SP is where it is otherwise they would not agree with RAH's and others, analysis, why the SP is "falsely" low.

"Come on let's hear a thoughtful alternative idea that doesn't repeat your tired tropes that the market (SP) is always right and that Al is discredited because he was stitched up by Bethell over the LFT"

Thats funny because yesterday, I thought airing, based on what AS said in an RNS in June was in face a new idea for me.

As for the SP I am guessing if it was say, 1000p you would think the market was bang up to date on what AVCT are offering. and that the SP would now be relevant.

The actual stitch up on LFT is of no interest too me now. I don't know if it took place or not. There does seem quite a bit of circumstantial evidence to say corruption may have taken place. Thats not my concern.

I don't think that was the cause of the failure of the AVCT LFT. And it doesn't matter anymore, what does matter is what AS said over that period.

The MO is repeating itself on this trial. And just like the LFT it was always... not to long to go now, everything is working brilliantly, just taking a bit more time than expected, etc etc etc.

Will the end result be the same? obviously I hope not but we have gone from an expected 4DE to 6 to maybe a 7th but can't really see that happening (AS) to 8,9 and 10?

How long do you think that will take given there have already been 4 time extensions just on the safety aspect?

Where is the promised land of Affimers? Where are Bams? Where is the LFT? Where is Elisa sales? Why with a DX divison already, do you buy 2 more companies if its all about to explode with TX? 2 things, maybe the affimer DX is not quite the holy grail it promised and maybe the incredibly tough nut to crack on Dox toxicity is also proving in humans harder than the lab trials suggested?

No wonder the market is wary. I know I am and becoming increasingly so.

And although I don't know, n

Bitl,

Don't make out I am the only one posting.

My crime is to put (imo) thoughtful alternative ideas for discussion.

The first thing is "Is it safe". Yes it is, dox is going into patients with reduced side effects.

at the same time through biopsy's they can see it is working in the sense that dox is being released and also hitting the tumour,I think that as they have increased the dose the level of dox in the tumour is not running in alinear fashion = which is why they have to get more dat through increased DE's.

I am guessing, I don't know.

But the SP always tells a story. (I am not talking TA) Sometimes it cannot be read without hindsight. But mostly you can get a feel of direction.

The SP at 100p within relative touching distance (or should be) of p1b starting, tells me a story, or at least gets me thinking.

Brilliant!

So now we all agree that it was ambiguous and that maybe there is at least a possibility its not exceeding expectations and actually isn't doing quite as good as was expected.

Honestly ..you guys..

2 things come from this. It seems to me the "well-researched" brigade are not perhaps quite as smart as they think they are and 2 that its never fud to express an alternative view if the SP seems to be doing the opposite of what you would expect.

But lets carry on as we were, as I am sure we will.

Smee:

From AS:

"" Analysis of the tumour biopsies to date also confirms that enough doxorubicin is being released in the tumour to have a therapeutic effect.

" If even higher doses of AVA6000 are tolerated then this may make a significant difference to the outcomes for patients in the upcoming efficacy study."

If, may, etc to then make a significant difference in the future, ie not now, not yet.

I read that that at the end of DE 5 that was still to be achieved and that therefore these outcomes were not evident yet.

How do you read it?

( don't get me started on inflection points. How many times is that trotted out by AS?)

FFWIW< eels to me like its done now. I have bought some at 7.38p

"....tin pot traders with their 3 day to 3 week time horizon."

Its been over 3 years and counting for me. Its only my trading the stock in the interim that has allowed me to profit from it.

" I suggest Windy we await the cohort 6 RNS to see where we stand, before continuing this discussion any further."

Well, I think that was my point. The data up to now is not as conclusive as perhaps some here (including me) had assumed and that there is going to be further DE's to confirm how well it is working.

I think the DE's are exactly based on the reasons given. its about efficacy. And therefore they have, through the biopsy's, an indication of how much Dox is getting into the tumour, so its not about safety, its about getting enough dox into the tumour to make a significant difference and as of end of DE5, it wasn't.

Anyway, thats my reading and hopefully at the end of DE6 we will have a clearer picture

Ice, " I would argue that if the disease progression was not due to AVA6000, it would be unethical for Dr’s to continue on that trial as chemotherapy is extremely toxic past the 3+3 trial stage"

I am not suggesting this does not work in that is reducing significantly dox toxicity and therefore not harming the patients, but the whole point was that dox was not a treatment that these patients would benefit from.

So as you say, we need more data to see if there actually has been a correlation to patients lack of disease progression and the dox administered because AS said their cancers would not respond to dox.

So i don't see that part of the statement as conclusive as I did when it was first released.

Except GJ, I am not spinning it. You are. You are inventing words that AS never said to justify your view.

Ice, ", that doesn’t mean they haven’t seen any unofficial results though, hence the several patients section that has seen no disease progression."

The wording on the lack of progression is not definitive and does not mean its due to the trial. (it may be but that is not what is said, that is something you are inferring or assuming).

Likewise, you are assuming again that there are "unofficial results" that support your interpretation as opposed to facts.