Member Info for wyndrum

"I cringed when I heard the CEO come out with these comments"

livedata, this is my guess at how the conversation might have gone:

Funder: At this rate you are going to need more money to get this through to the end of the trial:

AS: Yes, we think so:

Funder: Well, I don't want to pay 120p and then find I could have bought the stock at 95p. or even 85p.....Your current market cap is too high if there are further time extensions to get this to market. Every time this gets put back, you burn more money and then within a few months, the spectre of a cash raise looms again and the SP falls. If the market cap was lower then the asking price to us would be much lower and therefore value would be better. At this price we are not likely to help out this time round.

AS: ok...

"They will raise a lot of equity, mark my words."

Certainly its possible, however my best guess is that if the JR is successful for H&W, then the project will be sold and that will resolve the capitalisation/debt issue.

If not that then yes, some sort of capital injection would look to be on the horizon.

"You have twats like wyn and Terry who say its years off, nothing will come from it, it's not proven, it'll fail. At £1 it's like taking that bet at 3-0 down, knowing with 100% certainty in the near future you're gonna come good, "

Never ever said nothing will come from it. so straight off the bat your lying.

Nor have I said its not proven,. I have said countless times the data released suggests it is working very well. Lie no.2

Or obviously that I think it will fail. I don't. lie no.3

And not for nothing its AS who has said its 7 years away from max commercialisation.

But given his ability with a timeline that was imo a meaningless thing to say. Plus there will be I expect some breakthroughs elsewhere in 7 years.

And for the record I said I expect the most likely scenario was a buyout with in 6-12 months.

So please, in future before you use my name in a derogatory fashion get your facts right.

"You do however have an over inflated ego with regard to your audience."

well, in your opinion, not mine.

"If you were such a successful investor, trader or whatever it is you profess to be?

I just win more than i lose nowadays.

Thought I would share my experiences, stumbled across this BB and got sucked in to the PL75 et al vortex for, at the time a perceptive but innocuous remark, and none of us have looked back since.

Whether I am above or below any radar makes no difference to the stocks I am in, so why not share?

I

Exactly Joe, Thats why I bore the crap out of everyone, I try to explain my rationale in an objective and unemotional way.

I try joining the dots based on experience of similar situations and indeed how the company has operated in the past with its communications.

Thats all these BB's are good for is an exchange of views, it just that when only one view is allowed that they can become potentially wealth destroying.

As I say I don't mind at all anyones pov but I need (personally) to see the logic behind the assumptions they make and will question them if they are not apparent to me.

Why this can't be done in a polite manner is something when social media grows up, will be debated at length.

Of course its all about crowd psychology which is something I am quite interested in.

Apre, before you get any more of my posts deleted, I don't own a couple of million shares or so in AVCT.

Nothing |I do or say or actions I take affect the SP in any way.

And Donkey, yes, I know, no one saw LD coming thats the thing isn't it?

How did research miss that? it had been in the works for a year apparently.

We can listen to all the "research" we like, but its only what is already out there. I can join my own dots without needing to hear others guesses.

"The LFT has no impact on future success of Avacta hence the price went from 290 odd to 103 today. Stop bringing up previous rubbish, to suit current trading agenda, it’s becoming embarrassing now!!🙈"

Ice, I am not remotely embarrassed and your statement "The LFT has no impact on future success of Avacta.." well yeah, now sure, but what did you think at the time?

And guess what shock horror... I can mix and match bot aspects of long term and short term.

But heres the thing.

You want as an investor to be able to forecast many years and maybe decades ahead? what in a new high risk bio tech that takes years if not decades to know if they will be a success?

The long term approach is used for large established companies such as coco cola or BP or Anglo American.

Each to his own

You can keep up with your denial of LFT as long as you like but for many investors based on what the BoD said in conjunction with so called "well-researched" people such as MM and many others here, actually bought the stock on what turned out to be misplaced and inaccurate forecasts.

As so far the many shots on goal have also missed the target (Bams Elisa, which were also highlighted as big revenue enhancing tech.)

So forgive me if I don't listen too hard to the "well-researched" here, but rather than being optimistic and positive I will look more at the actual facts and history of the company.

What has come across is that this is going to be a much longer process than the BoD ever let on and that this is in fact still early days.

"Nowt wrong with being optimistic and positive, posting ramping nonsense, not so much. "

I still don't understand what being optimistic & positive has to do with stock analysis.

Its simply admitting to a bias. That bias then leads to ramping. I don;t think you can have the first 2 without the thrid.

As for MM research, it has at best been a mixed success. He was wrong about the LFT as in a 100% wrong.

I don't think he saw the purchase of LD coming, so not so much there and his latest missive is just a rehash with complete guestimated timelines, that anyone here can and has made.

I am always wary of a large share holder being "optimistic and positive", as there is always the risk of ulterior motives at work. just my opinion dyor etc etc

I have thought for sometime that if this to a certain extent de-risked, why a buy out or JV had not come in by now.

This is what the big majors do and this basin has been pretty well examined for HE. Anyway, it either remains a higher risk than many here think or maybe something now is going on behind the scenes...

Who knows..

The close shows at 9.1 so a tenth of a penny down on Friday's close.

Apart from a further small unwinding of the RSI an insignificant move imo.

(A close now at 9.5p is starting to look like a target!)

Quite... a reason why commercial appointments should not be taken as too strong a signal of imminent progress.

Lotus,

The SP will answer all your questions the moment the results are published.

Looks like this was priced in after all and the mid sept date is a bit further back from where the market expected hence the small mark down. (imo of course)

Fwiw I thought 20p was always unlikely (but who knows) but when you factor in past experience and dilution, I think its a tall order

I guess its not the unreasonable, "once bitten, twice shy", experience?

If you want to top up Dai right now might be the time (9.5p) ? (not advice etc etc) based on my TA expectations

:0))

The recent high of 9.8p is the target and given the SP is at 9.2p on the back of the update should be acheivable.

If for some reason it fails to close above 9.8p then I would assume the SP already has factored in the latest RNS.

However, just from my own personal expectation, which I divorce from decision making, I do expect it to go nearer 11p today and then fall back at some stage to around the 9.8/10p range for a last chance for the straglers to get on board.

(Dyor etc)

Ok safe, thanks for that well researched reply post too.

I am sorry that you find it crap that I think for myself and use my own thought processes rather than blindly rely on whatever happens to be posted, from whatever source.

Just as an aside: Do you believe everything you read?

Ah sorry for not being a mind reader Ice, Silly of me not to realise you were drunk and that in such a state the normal course of events makes you go a post to this BB.

Apologies again.

(And actually if you read my post there was no aggro in it, just an explanation why I thought your post was a ramp too far. God knows many here don't like any deramp whatever distace or lack of, it covers.)