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Cons, I think the relevance of the JV is that it can then be sold off.

Clearly with the in hand and progression of technical updates to the yards making them more efficient and at the same time more able to accept work there is real progress for the company to be a profitable company, but they have to get to terminal velocity and break the gravitational pull of borrowings and its costs.

I will personally be surprised if Harl don't get win the JV simply because I think its more a political decision then ever, and from a govt perspective too much is riding on it for the contract placement, the local jobs and economy with all those political ramifications , the international ramifications with the US and beyond, as well as the actual benefit of energy security.

Valuations abound but if it were about £100m then that would ease all the borrowing worries at a stroke and as this is long term business with contracts taking years a time, a stable company is of huge importance to the companies potentially placing the orders with Harl.

If the JV does fail then Harl hopefully will use the borrowing terms they have in place at whatever rate they have to pay simply to start to go forward. But as I say I think there is too much govt capital involved for the JV to not go Harls's way.

Just my musings, dyor etc.

Well, you may be right Legal, but if they did raise now I would both sell all my holding and not take up the RI.

(What do you think the price would be 3, 4p maybe 5? and then where is the appre4ciation over the short term?

We have already seen 20p is the new 28p after the last dilution, what if its now 14p or in other words that 100p round figure benchmark is now 50p? and now you have even more invested if you take up the RI, which means even more will be trading and de-risking etc etc.)

It would show to me they are not at all confident and at the same time likely to be maybe years away if they have to start more sceismic analysis etc for a new site. Life's too short.

My yardstick is I'm pretty normal and if thats how I feel I am unlikely to be an outlier.

Anyway, I don't think will raise, half baked or not :0))

I can't see any logic for a placing before the drill. Assuming the BoD are not lying, they have said there is enough money for this drill.

If they wanted a raise so as to have the funds for multiple drills then they would have done it much sooner. (when they announced they had a drill would have given them cover to say it was more expensive but longer term would save money and in the meantime we want to carry out further drills etc etc.

To do it now sends a message they are not confident after all about this drill so the take up would be poor with a vastly reduced SP and therefore the dilution huge.

Nothing has changed. This drill if successful will cause a huge re-rating of the SP and underpin a raise for future drills and therefore likely discoveries. If this fails then they might as well rent out their drill, because if the most promising site fails (again) to discover helium then where would be the expectation that anywhere else would?

Its all or nothing on this one drill. all ways has been.

I'm just saying in the exciting fast moving world of new disrupter tech....everything grinds so slowly.....

Sorry... just bored with this stock now....can't even trade it...

ho hum

Well Bella, I hope the process is quicker then with the covid lft.

TT, and approval(s) etc etc took 2 years. If the lab works quickly then why haven't we already got other tests using LF tech out there as its been over 3 years now.

I don't know about anyone else but for a quick, cheaper and more accurate system than anti bodies it seems this is potentially another cul-de-sac technology, otherwise why buy DX companies not using AVCT tests?

Again I imagine the sept update will be revealing in both what it says and what it omits.

"..Recent market estimates suggest the lateral flow market will reach nearly $23 billion by 2027 (Source: MarketsandMarkets) and we believe that this will be driven by new product development ...."

(The above quote was from ABDX's results in March)

AVCT may have missed the covid a opportunity but LFT's would seem to have a huge market to sell into going forward.

I have assumed that was the point of the recent acquisitions

Is it possible/legal that we could get an RNS that says (words to the effect of), "Drilling was successfully commenced yesterday and is continuing to plan with expected time lines for various depth analysis..." blah blah blah?

I am just thinking if they are ahead of where we and the market assume (apart for from Skitty), then HE1 might be managing expectations very well.

My guess would be:

The rise in the SP would be dramatic (more so than the expected timeline of the drip drip of info of drill crew assembled, expected spud, now we have started, etc as it would be a big surprise and create a lot of momentum by taking the market off guard.

A big (ish) rise in the SP would also concentrate the minds of those who want to de-risk as for some, it is emotionally harder to sell when you see a 20%/30% jump when it could be a lot higher in only a very few weeks later.

It might also translate to how well run & efficient LB is running the company which in turn might give the general market more confidence in her previous statements on the likelyhood of success.

Anyway, just some musings to pass the time.

Me too Xen, I have no ability to short, which in a bull market is ok but a frustration in a bear one.

Also shorting in stocks is not a popular as I think many here suppose. A, its much harder to have the facilities to do and B, the risk of shorting is higher than the risk of going long as the loss on a going long is limited, but the loss on a short is unlimited.

Further Shorting is typically much more short term because of the risk profile and also because its likely a specific event is going to cause the fall, maybe expected poor results, or an expected loss of a contract or whatever.

So given the risks and time constraints, anyone who shorts a stock has probably done a lot more research and is more confident that the bet will pay off

(Plus just the mechanics that Stops in the market don't work on shares like they do in indices and the the like. If you buy at 15p and have a stop at 13p but the news is bad and the stock falls straight to 5p means it simply bypasses the 13p stop and you get Stopped out at 5p!)

Anyway, for all those reason I personally don't put much store by Shorts, They are either done by people who don't understand risk and the implications or the fall in the SP is just normal buying and selling.

Imo, dyor

Xenor, you don't do 50/50 long/short.

(If you are that uncertain of the outcome you don't get involved in the stock in the first place.

But if you are pro long on a stock but there is a chance that, in our example the JV went against Harl, there would be a sharp fall, you might take out a 10% or 20% in value of the long, as a short to hedge the call.

Generally the view seems to be that there is a greater chance of the JV going Harl's way than not, so a small short to insure against a surprise is typical and prudent.

I don't think traders "panic" in the emotive way they are often portrayed.

They take out a short for sound reasons. They have stop losses just like if they have gone long, should the bet go south

They have already looked at the risk of a sudden upward move and what may cause it and factored that in.

Professional or experienced "traders" tend not to be anywhere near as emotional (and sometimes near hysterical) as many on this BB. It is just pejorative language to make them feel better about their own investment which in turn reveals an emotional attachment to the stock resulting often in any other view being dismissed for spurious or baseless reasons.

but thats just my opinion DYOR etc

Fair enough

Ice, well maybe, but if the grant was significant amount then yes an RNS would be needed and if it is insignificant then as an amount its not going to make any/much difference.

"Timelines are your concern Windy. Avacta are clearly not as concerned as you. Of course they have more information available that gives them an advantage."

This from April results RNS "The next significant value driver for AVA6000 will be the initial efficacy data from the Phase 1b dose expansion phase in patients with soft tissue sarcoma." So the longer P1a goes on the longer we wait, the poorer the company becomes.

And how do you know they are not concerned? The extra info they have, could be good or bad.

I am not arguing with you about this but highlighting that your view(s) are based on assumptions with little or no fact to get to your conclusion.

When AS said there was sufficient cash it was before the latest extensions in the DE's, so does that still apply? We don't know if the DX businesses are generating much profit. The last that was reported (unless I missed something ) was approx 10% profit margin of (LD) £300k over 2 months extrapolated out that's £1.8m over the year. How the other is doing I don't know.

Some of the income was from milestone payments. what if that reduces this year? All i am saying it is quite foggy at present and its tricky to see exactly where we are with cash on hand.

As i have said previously, now as we approach the end of DE6 there is going to be a lot of pressure to release data to support the SP. I hope it is available.

If you really don't think the clock is ticking when AS said at some time more funds will be needed in some shape or form, then I think you need to get a new clock :0)

"That’s a myth Avacta need short term money for the trial, for all we know they have secured a sizeable grant from the FDA. They are available and are not insignificant."

So you are guessing that they got a grant?

Would that not be market moving info and have to be released?

The whole problem has (again) moved to cashflow. How long will the safety aspect of the trial last?

If this turns out to be the last DE and P1b is given a start date then AVCT might get there but what if if 7 comes along with no confirmation that that will be the last one ,and they can't forecast even when 7 would complete due to be patient frailty.

This may be all very typical of this type of thing but it was not what I was led to believe would be taking place. And from I can gather nobody else here did either.

This is turning out to be a RI but just being dragged out over a long time.

The pro, is that if there is a substantial inflow of money (license deal whatever) in the next 0-24 months then it could be paid off and there is less dilution.

The other point is that at the time it may of been harder to get a straight forward RI away without causing even more dilution.

If these extended DE's were not forecast by avct at the time of the raise, then this constant drag on the SP would not have been seen coming either I guess.

The big problem with the time is the effect on the overall coffers and cashburn and as a result either method of fund raise would still be narrowing down to these calculations.

On balance it was a the best move imo, but I am still not sure yet, until we get updates on the DX business, if it was a good move to be spending money on acquisitions

I wonder if the new appointment of someone with a proven commercial background is being lined up to replace AS?

Its a bit out there but, if AS comes back in a few weeks time and says there might be more DE's after 7, say, then who will have any confidence in him as CEO?

I always think I am typical, and If I have had my doubts on his CEO acumen for a little while now, then I can't be the only one and it can't go on forever.... can it?

I don't think its that black and white gracie.

If there is alack of demand to buy the stock then 75k is not nothing. Its beyond most individual Pi's on a regular basis which then means it has to be a lot of smaller Pi's buying, and then doing it regularly.

So the only way to move the stock is to continually mark it down to attract buyers.

In fact it probably only traders that are keeping this up around these levels as they are maybe trying to scalp a few % here and there, but that gets harder as lower highs and lower lows are the current trend.

This then has a knock on effect on longer term potential buyers are not sure when to buy as the SP seems weak and prone to falls.

In the long term assuming this comes to a successful conclusion then its not such a big deal, but we are still in an uncertain timeframe of how many more DE's there will be. For instance if we knew this was the last one then that would be a reason to buy now even if it was still 4-8 weeks away from completion, as it would give the current SP some support around these levels. But what if we do have another 3 at 3-4 months a pop? (8,9,10) I am not saying we will at all but its possible.

Time is an extremely important factor in investing returns. It is compounded if the company is loss making.

I hope AS reports, when this DE completes in the relatively near term, that the data revealed is conclusive enough to at least stop the SP decline.

Also, what if one company "discovers" helium and the other doesn't ? Or they both don't or they both do?

(My "idea" of a merger doesn't have to be 50/50 by the way)

Agree with you guys, it seems crazy. For instance say, the Noble ship developed a fault and made an emergency stop and held up their progress for a couple of weeks? (or any myriad of potential unforecasted delays) what then for HE1?

The only thing I can see is that a merger might be on the cards but even then I don't think the logic really stacks up.

More likely, if there is an actual race on, maybe HE1 are spreading disinformation letting Nobel think they are in with a chance to declare results before HE1, not realising that crafty LB, is having some fun at their expense?

Which is alo rubbish.

Therefore surely this whole "Joint Drill" thing is just co-incidence and the 2 companies are doing their own thing, in their own time?

Who knows? Who cares?

"If you in the sidelines just get in and best advice is to keep buying and lock out the traders once there gone that's it this will keep going"

I'm all for people posting their views but as investment advice goes (assuming you can read it), this is about as wreckless as it is nonsensical, stupid, and financially irresponsible, let alone impossible to achieve,

"I must point out that I separate my investment in Avacta from any emotional involvement around cancer."

Thanks BV, because I have tried to get that across previously but been accused of being worse then Shipman.

C2 this really is a poor mans "One flew over the Cuckoos Nest" here as you have already experienced. FWIW, I 'd personally like you to persist with posting as your first hand knowledge should lead to more insightful questions and indeed answers than most come to this BB with.

Thanks for all the effort Skittish.

What you briefly mentioned (managing our expectations), as being potentially ahead of schedule makes a lot of sense to me as they will know from their own history and drills in general, that any delay once the firing gun has been shot causes SP volatility, so I think you may well be right in thinking they are further ahead than the market thinks.

(be nice thats for sure)