Member Info for wyndrum

Xenor,

you are mistaken in your assumption of a decade to get to 100p based on an RSI 80+ reading.

Just about all indicators (including the RSI) are simply algorithms of the SP. So a strong bout of buying pushes the RSI up to say 85, then it might fall just 3p pence the following day, to say RSI 60 and then the next day jump 5p and make a new high at only 70 on the RSI. If you have H&L and look at the 10 year chart and overlay the RSI you will see about a dozen instances of the RSI being 80 plus and falling back.

Its not infallible but works for me more often than not.

And remember, using me as an example, I might sell some or all if 80 plus is hit but I can easily (and do) buy back in when it has fallen and just pocket the difference.

(Personally, I don't bother with any other indicator on stocks as they are not reliable enough for me to profit from.)

Hi D,

Its rare I care about the daily RSI, simply because it can wind and unwind very quickly.

As I say, the time interval for using charts should be relative to the length of time you expect to hold the stock, so unless you are going to day trade you can forget them.

The exception... for me... is perhaps buying in. If a stock I like is on a support then I will look at the daily 1 minute chart to see if its bouncing right off it and if there are maybe 3 or so examples where it has gone to it, or even below, but bounced back, then that might give me the confidence to buy.

But in your example of a sharp move up during the day, I would not be remotely interested in the daily RSI in decision making.

Say HARL goes up 5p in a day it is unlikely it will do that in 1 move. It will be staggered over the day and therefore your scenario is less likely, but even if it does hit a 90 on the RSI, it would only need to drop a 1p to unwind and leave movement for further moves up on the day.

Anyway, only when I see an 80 plus on the RSI on the 1/3/12 month chart do I look to potentially sell. (All depends on support/resistance lines and trends)

I do my best to keep emotion out of this but if the funding and the JV come off I see this as 30p immediately and then pretty much plenty of further gains given the company has a market cap of just £24m. (certainly in excess of 100p)

Just my wishful thinking though... DYOR

Amen to that! Ipad

Lots of stocks to play around with Helmet. A diversified portfolio is usually the best way of balancing risk.

Each to his own

Chart looks great imo.

Think 17.5p is the obvious target now and looks to be coming pretty soon.

DYOR etc

Xenor, fwiw, I have more faith in "the market".

I think the Anchor weighing down the SP (see what I did there?) is the funding issue and the JR

Funding was originally flagged to have been resolved/put in place by now but there is now some doubt as to when and the terms of it.

As for the JV, if that comes off in Harls favour then that also will have a big impact as it opens up numerous options and all of them good.

I think once these 2 issues are cleared up (whatever the outcomes) the SP will then move forward. (Exactly where to, will depend on the outcome though).

Imo dyor etc etc

Oh. ok then, not a delay (although AS said it was an unexpected demand to go for an MTD that he originally never expected to achieve that has delayed, sorry extended, the trial aby about 12 months.

Still, lets not get too pedantic on what AS says and what actually comes to pass.

We are not doomed Tim but for all those who think its can take as long as it likes and that are no downsides to the extended timelines should be aware that there is a race on.

It also may go some way to explaining why AVCT has not been bought out so far. Perhaps Pharmas want the trials to be done so they can themselves work out how soon they can get it to market because they, I assume, have more knowledge than we do of competing technologies to achieve the same end result and don't want to spend $b's on a potentially redundant technology.

That's why I get so frustrated with the time delays, whether or not they can be avoided I don't know, but as i say, its a race and always has been.

Oj gj, you ask me a question, I truthfully respond but you clearly had already made up your mind.

Well done, wasting everyones time.

if you don't care, why ask?

This BB simply gets worse and worse.

Oh, I don't know Tim, maybe because its not your Board?

Gj, I did not "fill up" I simply bought some stock at what looks like a floor in the SP.

Its now up about 10%.

I have no idea what will happen but I think another raise is coming this year. I don't know if it will happen or at what price but I have held back funds in case its a straight forward RI and PIU's get a chance to buy some if advantageous.

I may change my view as news unfolds.

I am not wedded to a single thought or idea.

I try to take advantage when I think there is an opportunity to make money based on my criteria for buying and selling.

T4g,

I post a lot less on there as it is (like most BB's on LSE), over stocked on only 1 view but is a particularly spiteful board dominated by a few posters that clearly enjoy being unpleasent.

I continue to hold there and also trade it (separately) when i can but as it has been in a down trend for a while and I can't short stocks, I have avoided it but last week it suggested that a bottom had been reached so I have added a few.

News is always "Imminent" there but is in fact the opposite with weeks and months of no news at all which gradually depresses the SP. Still, if it does come good it could be quite something.

The way I see resistance levels is that on a fundamental basis with no new news, when the price (in this example) hits 40p its deemed as over valued and therefore people sell believing that there is little chance of further appreciation.

Then (for the sake of this example) the selling continues down to 36p whereby buyers think its now (on a FA basis) good value and buy in. This then from a TA pov, puts in a resistance and support levels and a trading range in between.

If/When it breaks 40p then the market will be saying that now on a fundamental view, its good value at 40p is likely to increase further.

What will cause that (should it happen), could be an RNS or a reappraisal of general market conditions or any number of circumstances to revalue the stock.

From a TA pov, we could care less, we don't need to know any of this, just that the SP tells the story and if 40p was broken, for whatever reason, then more likely than not more SP appreciation would follow.

(likewise if it fell below 36p then doubts might be coming in about further falls to maybe 32p and therefore more selling might occur.)

It depends on the individuals timescales as to how long they want to stay in a stock but the idea is to have a plan before you enter the stock which normally means 2 target prices on the way up and 1 price on the way down in case the market proves you wrong and you exercise your stop loss.

This is important as the risk reward should be at least 3-1 and many fail because they cut profits short and let losses run too long

Assuming all goes well, as it currently is, then just because its in a trading range does not in of itself mean the TA'er would sell (unless there target price was 40p).

You just patiently wait for a clearer signal. Given (in my case) I think 43p would be target 1 and 60p target 2, I am happy to sit on my hands to see how this plays out.

(I would re-evaluate at 43p)

Given we see it differently Pedro, what price would the SP have to rise to, to make you think that the down trend was over?

Hi Wolfo, (thanks for the remarks),

My background was Day Trading (all positions closed at the end of the day) with indices and it was every indicator available and although each had their moments I could never find one or two that were consistent enough. In the end I found what didn't work for me. I don't like Fib, volume or MA's. Not to say they don't work sometimes just not enough of the time for me.

Anyway. Small stocks with their spread and lack of volatility and price movement generally don't lend themselves imo to day trading. Therefore when I take a position I expect to be in it for a few days or weeks (or sometimes longer if I think there is a genuine long term story unfolding.)

So, after all that, now its a hobby i tend to use my "experience" given the above self inflicted parameters, to use my "method" to help time entry and exit on the most basic of indicators given I do not have the ability to short any stock.

So I look at close of play prices using just H&L charts of 3 months a 1 year using very obvious support and resistance levels with just the RSI as the only indicator to show where there is still movement in the SP to rise or if it gets to 80, then either don't buy or most likely sell and if I still like the stock, buy in at the retraced price.

So I guess that's momentum trading.

(My typical "why use 1 word when 50 will do" approach.... sorry...)

The key, if there is one, (for me) is don't care about the stock itself. Don't ever get caught up with the story/fundamentals.

There is no such thing as research that helps. All research is, is a guess (educated or not), based on what info is already released into the market. When the individual thinks the SP will rise they are saying that their "research" is better than the collective market's view.

Taking that view, seems to me, that the individual has a greater risk appetite than the collective market in expecting sp appreciation.

So given that, and based on my experience on all forms of analysis), I think crowd psychology is more predictively reliable than FA.

But each to his own. Its mostly a crap shoot whatever method is used! :0))

Fwiw I think it will go through 40p (maybe to 43p, maybe not, and then fall back to test 40p.

The RSI is just starting to get a bit toppy now suggesting a pull back is not too far away in terms of further price rises over the next few trading sessions.

Still, time will reveal all.

Hi pedro,

I don't know what will happen, but of course the whole point is that it hits (in this example) 40p and sellers sell, and the price falls, then it pushes up again but those who sold at 40p last time are no longer in the market, so the pool of sellers shrinks every time.

Ultimately the buyers will be trying to buy sub 40p right up until there are no sellers left at that price and then if they (the buyers) want the stock, then they have to pay a greater amount than 40p to get some and then all of a sudden the price rises beyond 40p and the resistance becomes a support.

Pedro, if you are going to look at charts then the trend is up currently. A break and close to 36p would put the up-move in doubt but ultimately a break and close below 32.5p would re-instate the down trend.

Its natural that a resistance point would provide err...resistance...

Pedro, why do you think MA is buying in, if the fundamentals are poor?

Its a genuine question as I would imagine his experience and due diligence is better than most. (And when I say "his" he will have a team looking at this very closely.)

Hi Kaeren, it will be interesting to see what comes first, the move from the SP or the news from H&W.

Still, who cares as long as the SP appreciates!

:0))