RE: HARL and the General Election7 Jul 2024 12:33
Stokey, The newspaper article would have been based on something. It was not just made up out of thin air. Journo's have contacts so as to get stories ahead of their competitors, so all I am saying is: its not , as you seem to dismiss it, of no value. (My take is that article came out because the journo may have had an indication that IM was less likely to go ahead and that would affect whether or not the Govt would backstop the loan. But thats just me trying to join the dots after the event).
The Facts are the RNS's have consistently misled investors as to when the new loan would be signed off. Thats par for the course as RNS's are in fact notouriously misleading.) But that is a red flag. Strong business plans don't usually have this much problem raising money.
Then we have a delay due to having to change the way revenue is accounted for and that HARL had to downgrade its forecasts to meet with the norms of the industry. (who saw that coming?). Bankers don't like surprises and certainly not that type of accounting "error".
Now IM gets taken away? Although it was always a possibility nevertheless after winning 2 appeals ) would have thought on balance, HW was home and dry. But no. Well, thats how it goes.
I was genuinely shocked/surprised when the election was called for July and with no decision taken then it was always going to be after and then its back up in the air. (FWIW banks tend to look at loans in their own right rather than who pays if it goes wrong. So the govt. backstop removes a lot of risk but if it is reduced to 80% of the loan then the bank is still in for 20% and my experience is they won't take that risk unless they are as sure as they can be that £40m will get repaid.)
Buts as I said, for me as none of us know anything that is going on, it just becomes, what the individual thinks is most likely to happen.
To reiterate, I don't think HW will cease to exist I think either the govt will bail them out by underwriting the loan, or they will be bought out of admin with all the contracts and staff and capital expenditure still in place etc.
I just think it more likely that current shareholders will lose out given the developments of the last 6 weeks (none of which have been positive, culminating in a suspension of the SP.
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