Member Info for wyndrum

No, I think I have already outlined what I think on balance, is most likely.

I would also suggest that since I posted my thoughts when the shares were suspended when I came back from abroad, that the circumstantial state of affairs made the outcome look pretty grim for current shareholders.

But, who knows, the accounts may look better than we now expect, IM might be appealed on Harl's behalf and the govt guarantee the loan. All possible.

Imo it is down the individual to try and guestimate the likelyhood of what event(s) will most likely occur.

In this instance its just a paper exercise as the shares are suspended so there is nothing any of us can do.

I am not remotely concerned about you watching and your glib accusation does not sit well me, (just so you know)

Well, if that makes you feel better, carry on imagining and inventing what you want. makes no difference to me.

Its all about the loan....

without it there are gone. With it, they SP will fly. As the shares are suspended we won't get a chance now to position ourselves either way.

Wiggy,

It looks to be in the middle of a retrace from being overbought.

Until it settles down its hard to say but you could argue 67/68p might be where it falls to?

On the basis of the strong rise there is nothing to currently suggest this is a spike but as we all know with AVCT its not always the case.. But if this is going to fly this should be it now. I think it should be a steady if zig-zag (as it always is) rise.

The FA supporting the rise should mean with the 2WD that more news should be released more frequently. (Personally I am not convinced the market cares who's currently in charge of AVCT or the B0D. Its all about supportive data on the narrative that has been coming out of AVCT to date.)

Well done. Very astute of you to have an average price of 82p when it has has spent 75% of its time over that figure within the last 5 years.

Still, another 15% and you will be at breakeven.

But yet I am the clown for making money historically and currently sitting on a 60% gain which will be a 100% when it gets to your breakeven. I am not crowing here, just trying to work out why you think my strategy is so worthy of derision.

All this accumulation watching: whats you current loss, given over the last 3 years it looks around 130p ish as an average price.

I did not spread doubt, I just correctly called the SP direction. there is a difference.

Biggi, this bb has little or no patience left with TA. Any replies will degenerate to abusive comments.

Each to his own. Works for me and if you bother to look at any chart on the closing daily price you will see its very rare for a stock to go above (or much above) 80 on the RSI, before falling back.

But as is quite rightly pointed out, if you are not interested in short term price movements then the ups and downs are not of any interest.

Personally I am not confident or aware of any system that predicts the likely SP months and years ahead.

But as I say, each to his own.

Saint, I hate to break this to you, but thats the basis of TA. Its all about sentiment......Charts are the graphical representation of the buys and sell and is based on crowd psychology

I may have mentioned it was over bought and need to fall back/retrace for the RSI to unwind.

So not really a surprise ....at all...

But as usual, what do I know.....its all guesswork.

Stokey,

I would imagine that IM had been dramatically revalued for their latest accounts as I think it was a reasonable thing to do given the backdrop of energy supply and appeals processes that had been found in HW's favour.

(I can't see any reason why they would not as it would be instrumental in showing the "security of the asset base of the company when applying for loans.)

Anyway, it is what it is now.....

I still think the catalyst was the IM loss, That would have been in the results as an asset and now isn't. That would materially affect the look of the accounts. And as it came late in the day, they have had to redo the accounts.

I would not be surprised if HW is insolvent. (By the way positive cashflow and being able to pay the bills does not mean that a company is not insolvent.)

So I think they are doing some very creative accounting while at the same time trying to get the debt signed off with the UK govt.

(Again, when you are a 100% guaranteeing the loan, its basically your debt so the govt will be applying the same rigirous criteria to signing it off as it if it was coming out of their budget in cold hard cash.)

Can only keep our fingers crossed.

Re: the value of the DX buys: What are they worth presently? I don't know, does anyone? Did AVCT bag a bargain or overpay on the original purchase? I don't know that either. How can we have any idea what price they might fetch given we have no inking of forward orders or cash burn or just about anything they are doing. Would they be sold as pair or individually? Or just spun off?

I will be very very surprised if cash is used at any point to pay off the loan through its whole term.

It was free money. Its the shareholders who are paying for it. What does AVCT care? They need to keep as much cash in the account as possible to deal with any potential delays or unforeseen costs etc. (And goodness knows we have experienced our fair share of those!)

The value of AVCT is in the trial results. Its immaterial how the loan is re-paid at this stage. There is no need or requirement to try and convince the market that by paying cash AVCT is confident. They are confident already and as we know, the market is not interested in potential bias views from the company and its own products.

If and when the trial shows the world what it can do then the SP, loan and everything else takes care of itself.

(At that stage I could see the DX being sold and the proceeds being used as a special dividend to the shareholders. That to me would be a fair thing to do, but I am just day dreaming.)

You must have a small life to want to belittle others for no reason. It just comes across as spiteful and envious.

I'm approaching retirement so I have had the good fortune to have had a lifetime of work and probably more than my fair share of luck to go with it.

Being able to afford to go on holiday a couple of times a year while dabbling away trading is hardly that "out there" is it?

Ha! yes who would have thought it!

Well, I am glad its cheered you up. (Every cloud....and all that)

Shares suspended on that one thanks for asking notrex.

I am keeping my fingers crossed but it does not normally end well. Can't win them all.

Well I am not distraught, just queried what I thought was a particularly antagonistic response to a straightforward question.

And why would I be distraught? Sitting on a goof profit here.

How much was raised in the last RI? You think they will splurge that money on this particular quarter? What about the one after and the one after that? Will they now just use cash? How many quarters have AVCT ever used cash to make a repayment?

And no, I have absolutely no idea why anyone would think that the limited cash reserves available would be used to pay off a debt when a free payment of shares is available.