Member Info for wyndrum

Stokey, I don't think govts "care" about competition. There seems to be great value in Harls order book so its not in any competitors interest to bid now but wait for administration, should it come.

The loan is necessary otherwise the shares would not have been suspended. The losses are continuing and increasing. Its not viable

I think IM was key. That removed a substantial asset and made the current financial position untenable. (Thats why the SP has reflected the markets view that it was priced to fail and only when there is evidence to the contrary will the SP be reviewed.

I would think politically Labour has to keep H&W going but they will do everything they can not to do it directly for the reasons I gave.

Its all guesswork on my part but the article in the times was correct after all. These articles are not written on a whim. so it was clear to me more than ever it depended on the outcome of IM. Thats why I an leaning towards a buy out from administration with some behind the scenes help from labour to relieve them of any financial responsibility.

I think labour have already spoken to the govt dept and they said the risk is greater now after the appeal as the asset base is so low and that maybe they no longer even qualify? Again guesswork for sure, but the market is rarely wrong.

BAE? easily could afford to buy it out from admin for whatever? and have no debt to manage, that would be a great return over a 5-10 year period.

I hope I am wrong obviously, but the shares were not suspended from a position of strength, so I think its more likely to fail then succeed.

But its just my opinion.

I have missed the last couple of weeks so forgive me if this has already been figured out.

It seems to me there are 3 options:

1 harl does not get govt money and goes into liquidation.

very possible and perhaps most likely outcome. Then with various debts written off the company is bought out of administration for a fraction. and inherits order book and all the staff. keeps the name and really its only shareholders who get shafted. Given the value of the company its only Pi's anyway, so who cares. Politically its sound as the only losers would be the current shareholders and then it is profitable overnight and looks like a success story. The govt would be pulling various strings to make this happen as it gives them no financial risk but makes them look like free marketeers.

2: the govt can't find any buyers (behind the scenes) so have to authorise loan after all. Thats fine, potential big upside, except not a great look as your first day in office ...Labour bails out loss making company......That could be a hard sell. and with the risk Harl might still screw it up, in which case thats £200m already wasted.

Option 3: they just go bust and the contracts are given over to other companies.

I think option 3 is the least likely with option 1 being the favourite.

Shame because had the appeal ultimately failed I think the loan would have been approved, but it didn't and we are where we are.

C'est la Vie.

Option2 has a chance because it might be able to be sold how new labour have a much better idea of when and how to support british industry given the areas that Harl are in. I would rate this higher if there was proof that this new administration was competent, but its too early to judge.

Overall I will be surprised if current shareholders get anything out of this.

I took a small loss and got back in at 42. (I scalped 10% on it in and around there too.) I trade a lot, much more than many here realise. Thats why its funny when some think I have an agenda. I am comfortable voicing my "concerns" over the long term while being long on a trade. My views don't affect the SP.

Look, I don't make money on every trade, no one does. But I also sell for a small loss (hopefully), when the SP does not do what I expected.

I don't have any emotional problem buying, being wrong and then selling and a couple of weeks later buying in again, Its part and parcel of the way I trade.

My latest purchase at 42p had a 38p stop on it, but it wasn't triggered and now I am up 10% again.

Some I do keep core holdings for as well, for the long term chance of big gains, but I still will trade them on the side if I see an opportunity.

Long term I have stuck with AVCT and I will stick with HE1 and HARL until its obvious to me they will not succeed, but I will also trade them as and when.

Anyway off to the Med for 2 weeks, so you lot can shout at someone else while I'm away

Well, it is clear you take some comfort in imaging I never make any money.

Bit pathetic really......still, long as you're happy.

Ben, it was £20k (a £2k punt that 10 bagged)

Sorry Ice, I can't help but try and read charts. I say when I think its going down, and then when I see a chart break out and call it then too.

Its a bugger I know. And I am sorry if it offends you I make money but I don't know really what to say.

Again your remarks have to be based on me thinking I can influence the SP which is stupid.

In fact you would have to be an idiot to think that. oh, hang on... you said.."It’s clear you are working towards an agenda depending on current position, any idiot can see that. 👍"

Turns out you are an idiot... (who knew!)

I still have concerns! I had concerns about this stock years ago and they were well founded.

We all have our crosses to bare. Yours seems to be an inability to accept I was right and you were wrong and simply don't have the humility to accept that fact.

And what have I done privately to help? Do you know? Many of us have had very sad losses due to cancer. And do what we can where we can.

I am genuinely, really sorry for the experience you have had and its commendable your efforts to contribute to a cure for these terrible dieses. I just ask you to less judgemental on people you don't know or have even met.

Then don't read them and stop whining.

Largo, what exactly have you done to help cancer sufferers?

Buying shares from a broker in AVCT?

Were you helping covid sufferers when you held shares in AVCT then? What good did it do them?

You are a fool to conflate holding stock in a company with their outlook on, in this case, the well being of people who are suffering from cancer.

You think my posts affect the trial results?

You think my posts caused the decimation of the SP?

Do you think perhaps it more likely Heights is to blame, in which case why don't you email them and tell them how terrible you think they are, insisting on a loan being repaid and hurting people who are stricken by cancer?

Or perhaps the actual BoD of AVCT are to blame?

Your silly emotional outburst is incoherent, misdirected and incorrect

I've told you before, give me something to be enthused about and I'll be enthusiastic.

After the various SP disappointments we (or at least I will) just have to wait to see this is not a spike/false breakout, but fingers crossed there can be enough momentum to have called this the low and even with the heights likely selling pressure, we will see the end to 40p... forever!

Its a chart break out!!!

The heady heights of 48p beckon....

LOTM, well lets wait and see where it closes but its cheaper to buy today than where it closed yesterday so I was just getting a bit bored by the "Moving Up" posts

And yet, its just gone down......

So you all keep saying.....

Chris, the only reason companies go public on Aim is to raise money. Thats why the loan can be paid in issuing shares. that wasn't a coincidense when drawing up the terms.

If AVCT is ultimately successful then this is short term pain for shareholders, big and small alike. If it fails, then who cares, the result will be a loss for everyone and 40p will also be irrelevant.

Always work form the position that you and I as PI's don't count, at all, for nothing, then when then sinks in, recalibrate your view of whats likely from the BoD.

AVCT have hopefully raised enough money to get them over the line. they either will make it or they won't. Its unlikely there will be anu further cash raises, which in turn means they will issue shares and eke out funds for as long as possible.

McMuff, I can understand the sentiment but it is very unlikely imo. One, AVCT don't have a spare £4m knocking around. Two, AVCT don't have a spare £4m knocking around, 3, AVCT don't have......

No one made any of us buy this stock. This BoD, and all the others BoD stocks, don't care about PI's because...One, no Two, one made any of us buy this stock, Three, no one made any of us.......

The scale of the amount raised was just enough to just about see AVCT through to a place where the evidence of the platform should be sufficient to get JV's or license deal, or a takeover a realistic possibility to other companies.

We can talk to the cows come home why we are where we are, but we don't really have any idea whats gonme on.

We don't know, actually, how the trial is performing, we don't know actually, if the BoD are incompetent at a running a business, we don't know if there have been genuine unforseen's that have hampered progress. We don't know actually, quite how ruthless money men and other players are when they smell blood on a small company like AVCT.

We don't know any of this, all we can do is try to look at the broader bigger picture of business.

As I have stated before, its not about the science its about the money, its always about the money. The SP never lies.

Its irrelevant what AVCT is trying to do, its whether or not being a PLC, can outside forcers make money out of it. And that can be shorting, going long, onerous loans, delaying tactics, you name it. To think that anything is off the table is niave.

(Anyone remember BA putting Freddie Laker out of business? Goes on all the time. )

Thanks for your input LOTM,

Tomorrow's another day for sure...

My thinking is, if the MM's are short of stock, then lowering the price might induce an amount of profit taking but might at the same time get more buyers in at lower prices and therefore make demand for stock even greater.

Conversely if they have too much stock then lowering the price if it induced profit taking, could exacerbate that scenario too.

In other words market manipulation by the MM's carries with it a lot more unnecessary risk than I think many PI's imagine.

There could well be a pullback after such a rise but I think it will more likely be due to normal supply and demand rather than any manipulation, but on the other hand...... who knows...

SB, do you think the MM's have too much stock, or not enough?