Member Info for wyndrum

My thinking is, if the MM's are short of stock, then lowering the price might induce an amount of profit taking but might at the same time get more buyers in at lower prices and therefore make demand for stock even greater.

Conversely if they have too much stock then lowering the price if it induced profit taking, could exacerbate that scenario too.

In other words market manipulation by the MM's carries with it a lot more unnecessary risk than I think many PI's imagine.

There could well be a pullback after such a rise but I think it will more likely be due to normal supply and demand rather than any manipulation, but on the other hand...... who knows...

SB, do you think the MM's have too much stock, or not enough?

You would think wouldn't you Sharebel, the only thing is almost always on big, big day moves like this, is that there is profit banked in the last 30 mins ans you see lots of selling bring ing the SP back a bit.

Bit this time it just kept going up. unusual in my experience

Tomorrow will be interesting......

Whether its through an rns or whatever i would expect some sort of explanation of AS's departure.

The SP is important now due to its low level and the continued heights sale.

Without comment there is little or no incentive to buy. the result would likely be a further fall in the SP.

Currently its held at around 40p . if there is just the normal AGM box tick affair then I would think more selling would come through as it feels to me, some holders are waiting for good news around the AGM. So fingers crossed there is some.

It looks like ultimately the SP was already reflecting failure of that "asset" so now its back to the finance deal with less asset support, which again the market is still pricing in failure or at least onerous terms.

Nothing to hold up the finance decision now.

I am still sticking to my guess that the IM result is linked to the finance deal.

Today's the day..... (imo dyor etc)

Certainly the raise, as painful as they are and this one was, does remove the last hurdle to commercial viability confirmation.

2 wells with the resulting data fleshing out (at last), the scale of the find.

So win or lose, the this is now "de-risked" inasmuch there is little to stop this very long journey to unequivocably being a success (or not).

I remember at the time saying it was a huge over reaction.

(The largest demographic of illness and fatality were 80 plus already with co morbidities. (There was that terrible line in black humour when it turned out that the average age of death caused by Covid was 84 or something and was higher than the overall average age of death in the UK with the remark.... "If you want to live longer, get covid"

Given now the state of the NHS, education, and the general bankrupting of the country, work from home, acceleration of high street decline, inflation, closing down the economy has wrecked this economy for the foreseeable future.

Now you still get it and people just carry on, even though it can still be pretty unpleasant and debilitating.

There is little if any evidence that lockdown, mask wearing etc made any difference to the overall spread and time it spends in society.

The care home fiasco was due to a govt with no understanding with what it was dealing with or resource even if it had.

The world was caught unprepared for what in hindsight will be seen as a wakeup call to what a more deadly virus breakout, when it arrives will cause.

(Good job PL has me filtered as he still thinks we should have followed china's advice and had a100% lockdown.... No one in no one out, no movement. (quite how that would have worked never really got talked through. We were all to gleeful that we were going to be gazillionaires in a matter of days.)

Still NYCT did ok

QBT is not massively oversold, it is barely into oversold territory at all at 30 on the RSI. Just saying.

He1 on the other hand was really and genuinely very oversold at 18 on the RSI and I like many others bought in at around .055 and have a 45% gain within a few days. Even after the near 50% rise, the RSI is at 30 leaving a lot of room for appreciation with 1.4 the target (or a doubling from here. (That will take more effort as there are more shares now available, but Charts don't really care about that type of thing...

Well, ok but I am not underwater here nor the other stock we share, ridicule away if it makes you happier.

Apre, the chart already indicates this has a better chance of going up than going down.

I agree small caps are not the best advocates for TA, but I have found Charts very useful to time entry and exit once I have identified a stock that seems to have growth potential. each to his own

Because Croms, HE1 are/were not in the driving seat. had they been able to have the funds to do the EWT and it turned up trumps then it would have been a different story. but right now, its more of a "begging bowl" exercise. (imo dyor etc)

You show no ability to think logically or show any analytical skills and just assume everything you are told is true.

You are unbelievable.

OMG!

"The dilution was 20% yet we had a 90% fall it’s not logical and can’t be explained easily"

it was valued at 50p because that was the best price that could be obtained. The value of a company is built on its assets and/or profits and the then further, swings are based on the market forecasting what is likely to happen over the next 3-12 months. This is the unknown future element that allows a market to be made.

Oa company like AVCT it is largely simply down to what the market will pay.

If the company had convinced the market that the share diluting cash raise was positive than the SP could have risen, which according to you would be non-sensical as it represented a 20% dilution!

The fact you can't understand this most basic fundamental part of company valuation is beyond belief!

Stick to the video games, this really isn't for you.

"The funding and future funding will also not be a problem as long as the data remains exceptional. "

Then why was there a raise at 50p? and why since then has there been a further 20% fall?

"Given the scientific evidence seen so far why would AVA6000 fail scientifically in future studies if targeting tumours sensitive to anthracyclines?"

I don't know, I am not a scientist, however if it is so obvious why is the SP at 40p? (esp as its so close to ending this trial?)

The only reason can be is that the market is not convinced.

As for FDA approval: has it been approved yet? because if it hasn't it could fail, could it not?. Also when will a decision be made? will they want more data and put it back timewise?

I have also countless times told you but maybe playing your video games distracts you, but it is a plausible scenario that AVCT could be bought out at a very low price which would allow the tech to be developed buy someone else to the detriment of current shareholders. And that assumes the tech does indeed work as forecast here.

If there are any further reported delays and with heights selling (every 3 months) for years to come, the SP could indeed get hammered and then who knows what a take out price would look like.

Do I know that will happen? No, but it seemed inconceivable that the SP would fall 100p now its 40p, so its more likely than it was.

You approach seems to be reactive rather than risk reward based. Your faith in RNS's is completely misplaced as the history of this actual company vividly demonstrates. You seem to have little or no ability to read or hear what is being said that might be ambiguous, always choosing the version that supports your previous view and never ever considering an alternative.

When my conclusions change, then I change the amount of my holding.

That is sensible and coherent.

Your view is myopically and emotionally driven with simply no understanding of how to protect your wealth let alone grow it.

"Touk this went from 37.5p to 185p I can’t remember being much doom and gloom during that period. If folks realistically think this is the end of Avacta give yourselves a shake."

It spiked up to 185 because the market thought P1a was coming to an end. When they realised it had been extended for at least a year the sell off started.

Since then we have had the cash raises and the company is in a constant state of dilution every 3 months which has years left to run

The trial has been extended with new dosing regimes making people wonder when it will ever end. (given what has been stated before, that is not that ludicrous). Money is relatively tight and with a new CEO without an explanation why the old one left so suddenly, the whole company looks from the outside in a state of flux and uncertainty.

As I and others have logically surmised, it is unlikely that AS left on the verge of good news, or immediate good news. (This logic somewhat limits the options at the AGM).

I have also pointed out several times that the AVCT science/ IP can easily prosper without current shareholders being a part of that.

The upside could be an announcement of up-to date data that transforms the near term outlook.

However , thus far the data released does not seem ever to impress the market. Plus AGM's tend to be dull box ticking affairs.

Clearly to-date, the SP is showing less and less enthusiasm for this trial.

Draw your own conclusions. (I have drawn mine).

That is the million dollar question D.

It really depends on what the buyer want/expects.

If AVCT release data- rich, good news and the SP jumps to...say.. 100p? then 2 things can happen it can go up further or fall. (An unexpected RNS would suggest just buy in asap and hang on for dear life. Normally however, there are some nibbles in the SP that might get you to buy prior to the unexpected news.)

Its impossible to know which one will happen For me, as you know I would use the RSI to help with that decision, but that just helps the odds of being right, its no guarantee.

If you think, that's it, the course is set and I will hold now to see it through and its 2 years at least , then a potential retrace to 80p or whatever, becomes largely irrelevant.

For my part, I can be a LTH and trade it at the same time. Thats not an accident, I am trying my best to have the best of both worlds, but its not for everyone.

Ultimately, whatever "system" you use, there should be a plan. Why am I buying, right now, at this price? Will it go lower? maybe but I don't want to risk missing out? You have to examine your motivations to see if they are rational or emotional.

Then once you have bought, how long do you expect to hold them for, and what price are you aiming for when to sell?

And if you get it wrong (as we all do), then when do you crystalise the loss?

Honestly and sincerely, I don't know how anyone can buy a stock for whatever reason and not have these questions answered in their head.

So I think it is wise to consider the what if's, as if it does occur you can act accordingly.

What makes this harder (AVCT) is that it is a loss making company and therefore large swings will always accompany such entities. The individual has to decide what they want from it given its high risk.

The plan may, as events occur, need adjusting but most shouldn't. (For me TA is more mechanical and removes a lot of the emotion out of these parameters, but each to his own.)

What I don't get is to buy a stock and have never considered answering any of those questions.

Like everything there is no right and wrong when trying to predict the future......

The fact is this buying high risk small cap companies is almost always going to result in capital depreciation for the individual.

Getting rich slowly is actually pretty easy if you can save a few thou per annum regularly. The irony is that youth wants to get rich quick and when you realise the solution you are too old!! :0))

(Best wishes to your girl xx)

Craig, I am actually very consistent.

I buy when I think the SP will rise and sell when I think it will fall. (not always successfully), I work typically on shorter timescales than some here

So I am often judged by others standards rather than my own.

I think like everyone here, that if this comes good then there will be huge rise in the SP, but the longer it goes on with a collapsing SP gives me pause for thought and to make sure I am not over committed to what I see over the last year as increasing risk and reducing reward.

Believe me, I will be very positive when I see a rising SP on the back of good news. In other words it will show to me the market believes in the news release. whereas currently, clearly they do not.

I guess I see the SP as the most reliable (but not sole) indicator. (its not infallible, because nothing is), but over a long period it seems inconceivable (to me) that the market has this wrong for so long whilst at the same time on the face of it, better and better data is released.