Member Info for wyndrum

Let me stop you there Rory, I have spent years saying the business model is more important than the science citing the scenario's that you also have highlighted and how the longer the trial continues so does the cash runway run out which can equal a much lower buyout then was ever possibly imagined even a year ago. But some here won't entertain any other scenario that we all live happily ever after.

Great effort though :0))

Well, its all about a few quid or in fact several hundred or a few thousand.

And of course, as I have done, you don't have to completely sell up if you think a deal could land any day.

And further, so what, there are countless opportunities for big gains out there. plus you can always get in further up when its derisked.

Its none of my business but if your average (or anyone's) is say 130p, what sort of deal is likely to come in next week to clear that, based on where we are in the trial and how the SP has reacted since september say?

We have just had an update confirming time wise we are on track and its HY2 now that is the date for explosive info, so somewhere between July 1st and December 31st.

The "risk" of being out right now is not as high I think as you imagine.

And as you have often cited this risk of being out, how long have you been saying it and what has actually, in reality taken place?

ICE, I have to give it to you, you never, ever give an inch.

The market slashed the value beyond the obvious mathematical dilution because they see the risk increasing of further dilution and pressure from continued heights selling down the track and therefore get out asap to protect capital.

They look ahead as far as they can realistically see based on the current evidence. Its not a complicated concept. And they (the market), will turn on a dime if new news changes their view.

As I have tried to explain. most people know that when they sell, they can always buy back in if they want. Its not some sort of once bought, never sell, never add to a position, one time only, deal.

I accept that Ice, but that was already know since september that it was being done and there was no reason to expect it not to work.

Or are you saying it was a huge gamble to go to 2wd?

The market I think is not or nowhere near as disconnected to the SP as you assume just because it does not fit your opinion.

This is where a lot of the opinion of this BB diverges from mine.

If I am right, that the market is broadly, generally correct in valuing companies then when a SP does not perform as I expect, the first thing I do is try and figure what have I missed. Is there really a disconnect or have I got the rose tinted glasses on? What scenario would justify, in this example, such a low and deteriorating SP over the last at least, 18 months.

I accept that the market can temporarily be out, but if overvalued or undervalued the sharper eyes pick it up real quick and it gets to the "correct" level pdq.

I think on this BB, the basic economics of a company are always overlooked. People here are basing valuations on assumptions that are too far ahead for the market to entertain. To them its all about the science and NOTHING else.

An analogy might be. You buy a larger house than you need and can afford the mortgage repayments and in 25 years it will all be paid off and the house will be worth 3 times more than its current value so you can downsize with a leftover lump sum.

However if Mortgage payment treble and you cannot pay the increased amounts then you might be forced into a sale after a couple of years at a loss, and the future value of the house becomes an irrelevance and the "plan" is shot through.

Stand back a bit and Thorns interpretation of the RNS is about right. Steady as she goes.

What was said was an update on what some saw as an over due update on 2WD and that it was progressing.

The Fapi, thing looked to be the surprise bit but it had been highlighted previously by AVCT as a part of the trial I believe.

So it was not really "good" news per se, but what made it positive was the absence of Bad news. And that's not nothing so I am not being critical here.

And if you do think it was good news, what were you expecting? 2WD to be behind schedule, to not be effective? That the next dosing regime was not started yet?

And again the SP reaction suggests the market was pricing in a steady as she goes too.

And before you diss the SP, you know that when THE DEAL comes through, the SP will rocket, well then you will think the SP is a relevant indicator, wont you?

The market is sniffing around Harl this morning... Is it Rishi or is it the deal or is one connected to the other.

Given the state of the conservatives in the polls, this is the right, maybe only time to get this over the line?

"and thinking it has a tangible effect on anyone's decision-making. Total waste of his time and everyone else's."

Like every body else who posts here. I do not think my views have any tangible effect on anyone. Its just a BB for discussion with posters who have different views.

Thing is, I get a lot more personal questions thrown at me.

If you would just cut out the abuse and posts like yours and so many others I would not respond.

I have said this many times before.

Its you lot that create and nurture the very conditions for the outcome you all so abhor.

You are really not very smart, are you?

"Apart from the SP Avacta couldn't be better placed"

Ha ha,

Brilliant!

Ice: "I love to debate with a negative Windy".

Don't kid yourself. you just make stuff up about me and even when I correct you, you carry on lying about me.

That's not debate, its just mindless hectoring.

"When it comes to your views, we know they are disingenuous and generally fall into the category of conjecture, crafted to support your current position.

gje, this is the bit I struggle with. I admit it to being conjecture, so like every other post, its just an opinion. So of course it supports my position!!!!!

It would only be "disingenuous" if I posted these things and not believe them.

The fact I have always held a position (that has waxed and waned but never been out of) in this company, is proof that I understand that this could just beat the odds and come good and is worth the risk and reward. That risk reward changes for me based on the news or lack of it. Today I have increased my risk or exposure, because this new RNS suggest the pitfalls I was to date concerned about, have imo, lessened.

The thing is you and others make assumptions about me and will never believe anything I say if it does not fit your beliefs and opinion

Thats a pretty good example as any of a closed mind by the way. Do you see yourself like that?

Believe what you like, it makes no difference to me, but if you are that clairvoyant, then you would not be sitting on a loss currently.

And I did not admit having any agenda, you just made that up.

And who else do you care about on this BB? Are you going to share your profits with other posters here if it comes good?

So that was (another) pretty stupid thing to say.

"stick with facts" like your 8 week dosing instead of 6 was a mistake the RNS published?

I always make it clear is just my opinion as you well know, so again another not stupid remark, but a deliberate attempt to discredit me by telling lies.

Ice you have never, ever been right, not even once with your guesses of if I am in or out. Not once.

Your level of intellect is revealed when you think I think I can affect the SP.

I Buy, I Sell, just like every other person on this BB, only I might be more frequent than the majority. So bloody what. I have never said otherwise. And I am up 8% from this morning.

Watching, your an idiot.

There is no problem in buying stock, so what do you mean when you say, "Time to buy back in if they can"

As I say you are a complete tool, inventing these silly little scenarios that play out in the very small space your brain inhabits. (And I did all my buying around 42p just so you know)

I don't care what you think Ice,

There was new news today. I explained my interpretation of the RNS in a previous post.

You have never had any doubts, that is fair enough and acted accordingly.

Based on the history of this company and its high risk nature, I have been more cautious and been much more proactive in safeguarding my capital.

It has served me well. If your method has worked for you too, then great.

You invent discord where there is none.

Its just different approaches. You are prepared to gamble on this stock more than me, thats all.

Fingers crossed D!

Looks to be a very positive RNS. My personal concern about the delay has been removed, 2nd dose already in hand, Not exactly sure what the sub -study means from the science pov but again its already underway, rather than to be set up as that's where often delays or misunderstandings of timelines have occurred.

The wording from CC is such I am unable to read much ambiguity in it and I am happy to draw a line under AS and not tar CC with that particular brush.

All in all, she is confirming that previous timelines are on track and confirms there is no slippage, so fingers crossed we have seen the bottom.

The next hurdle is heights selling, but that will be relative to what the SP is at that time.

I am a holder.

I scaled back as my stops were triggered on the news but I got mostly out in the mid 10 's low 11's but kept a fair few and bought back some more at 9.5p when it seemed it might be poor reporting,.

Anyway, just so you know as it seems important to you, I am still in but at a reduced amount.

Hmmm...

I wonder seeing as it has not been approved yet if this now puts it all back or off the table completely? And will a Labour administration see it the same way?

Can't help it cheif, they make up things while criticising me.

Ah, so the rns saying it was, is now not true and can be dismissed now? it was pulled a week later but clearly there were no orders subject to approval.

Its almost like they knew the test was a flop by deciding even though it could detect omicron, it was not good enough so AVCT took the moral high ground and removed the best test in the world to the crappy china one just one week after approval having taken 18 months to get it to market.

So now we have all come to my conclusion AS was a bit... iffy with his coms, we still think the LFT test was the best?

So what was it? a test that was never any good, or a test that was hyped by AS to be the best but wasn't?

Because this does for me get to the heart of it.

We base our expectation of the trial on the released data. But is it the full story? For instance there are side effects. we all know that, but how many and how much and how has it varied between patients?

Because, the SP suggests right now, its not the game changer we think it is. Why are they wrong seeing the same data as us?

Why has no single company, fund or individual built a position after all this time?

Its a bit of a mystery.