Member Info for wyndrum

"The share price doesn’t represent company success or failure it’s not linked. It’s not logical to be at 45p, (fully funded and exceptional science) yet here we are, that has no impact on the scientific evidence or chance of approval here"

and yet, when it is approved then the SP will magically reflect all the things you say it doesn't reflect now?

wow, or could it be that as there is no sign yet of revenue or how good it is etc etc to be valued that the market is not as convinced as you are?

Have you ever held any other stock apart from this one?

Then why is the SP 45P?

Why has the Sp been in down trend for the length of the trial? The further it goes on the lower the SP goes.

Does that make sense?

I don't care anyone does, all i say is don't over commit.

The science isn't exceptional yet. Its simply safe. What we don't know in fact if Dox is Dox at the tumour.

If it helps patients and reduces side effects but has minimal or small extra length of life effects, then it might not be worth the Billions you assume.

Will the same trials have to be done on every different more powerful drug to make sure what the MTD should be?

You can't see any scenario where this could be taken private/bought out if AVCT were strapped for cash? This time round it had to be 50p. If timelines slip and another raise is necessary you don't think then the board might have to capitulate?

I am not suggesting this is likely yet but its definitely on my radar as a possibility.

I hope you are right but you are ahead of me on your assumptions.

Ice.

Has any of the timelines gone to plan?

No. Not one These procedures are difficult to time, I get that, however every single one has missed their own timelines. from a company in charge of the trials. Who know intimately what's going on.

What you simply refuse to engage in is its not just about the science.

We know the platform works in that it is safe. That's what we know. That's what the data proves. There are indications that is it efficacious as well, but quite how that side of it works is still to be discovered and proved. That's the science, but given the extension in every stage of the trial suggests it has not gone as well or as expected from the mouse trial data. You may disagree,but that's the conclusion I draw.

So the science is promising albeit slow. BUT the slowness affects the financing. If the 2wd runs behind schedule then maybe AVCT won't be on track to start the next part of the trial on time. What effect will that have on the SP?

The lower the SP so the bond repayment schedule becomes more onerous.

For you to simply say you should have faith that the science will work is ignoring the the reality of the money. What if these delays also make FDA approval longer to attain?

Is there enough money to early 26 or does that just guess that there "should" be and further, does that cash runway mean that they don't need to raise until early 26 or in fact mid late 25 as you don't leave things to the last minute?

Will DX be spun off? will it be sold, will it be cash generative next year? All these are unknowns but AVCT's history of predicting their own future is totally unreliable. And its never been surprises to the upside only ever to the downside.

So for you to ignore this fundamental aspect of the business seems crazy (to me).

This is a proper race now to get saleable data out before the cash runs out, again, and I for one , am not encouraged that 8 months after an RNS saying we are having a short 2WD trial we have no results from it. Although I thought we would hear something at the end of April.

Its all about the money and always has been.

A lot has over the years been routinely posted here about the "science". And a lot of posters are very happy to read these types of posts and get discouraged when the posters who contribute this element to the BB, leave.

The idea of doing research is to get ahead of the market. The point of research is to be able to buy in before the general market realises the value. This has not happened here over the last few years.

However, surely by now there is a realisation that we actually know nothing of what's going on. (This latest missed timeline being a case in point.)

This to me is pretty fundamental.

Because if we don't then we are flying blind.

When Ice says have faith, that is not how it should work. What this stock is given the opaque nature of developments, you bet a small amount, an amount when if it went tits up, its a brief shrug and you move on.

There has and still is a greed element where many here think for them it will be financially life changing . Maybe it will but it is akin to buying a lottery ticket. This will be luck not judgement.

As long as the amount bet is within everyones comfort zone then ultimately no harm will be done.

Goldie,

When you say "And for those who have a great insight and can stir up good discussion or even help those to clarify scientific jumble then please continue to do so. Your hard work is greatly appreciated by people on reading this board including myself."

Are you referring to me?

If not then can I ask how the "clarification of the science" has helped you in deciding on whether to buy sell or hold?

or indeed those who have promoted the great value of the stock at multiples of the current SP have also benefitted you (or others), with their predictions.

Goldie: "They say they’ve been right all along, but a broken clock is right twice every day and hindsight is a wonderful thing. The fact that Wyndy and others have said they are/were ‘investors’ yet they write on this board daily and intensively makes it clear that they abusing their position to suit their agenda.

They have been caught on many occasions using different accounts, accusing individuals and causing confusion. Whilst they are supported by a fund, it’s getting harder for them and they’re aware that they have limited time to achieve their aim hence why their messages are becoming more frequenter and more intense. Things can and will flip rapidly."

I have never had different accounts so that's the first misinformed part of your statement.

I have not reacted in hindsight, and have been correct on several occasions in predicting what was likely to happen next. So the broken clock and hindsight comments are also wrong.

I have no agenda other than to express my view on how events unfold, like everyone else here.

I can only reiterate, its not down to a few posters or me in particular that the SP has collapsed over the last few years, to suggest that it is is ridiculous. Further, if the SP is on a long term downward trend then it will OBVIOUSLY generate posts that will try to examine why and by its nature will be deemed by some here to be "negative" as though there is only one view that MUST prevail. This then gets into the whole positive/negative debate which is a meaningless display of emotional guff. The merits of any posts should be able to be discussed freely. The argument of either side can either be sustained or rebuffed.

I am rarely unequivocal as I understand none of us know what is going on and remind people to do their own research.

Hi Rambo, thanks for your thoughts.

I am not sure I agree with it all though.

I don't see any circumstantial proof to suggest he wanted AVCT to be under the radar. Although we have lamented the PR the fact we had Science days, several interviews, exhibition presentations, moving offices to become higher profile and very good data reported in the RNS's over the last 18 months or so, suggests to me that AVCT were in fact desperately trying to gather visibility.

I think the constant unpredicted delay in finishing (for whatever reason), various stages of the trial is the main reason why funding then became front and centre. (I think it was the "unexpected surprise" of having to gear up again after the 4th cohort that was pivotal as it added over a year on top of already slipping timelines.)

Can't argue with point 2&3! (but I think it was an inevitable consequence of the above)

I don't think the loan was any sort of master stroke to supress the SP. (The "we are overvalued to our peers" remark came way after that as the consequences of the delays and thus needing more funding, became crystal clear.)

Point 5: Well, that to me is the cause of all the reasons why the SP has collapsed to value it is now.

Point 6: I don't know, you may well be correct but the thing that makes me think it might not be, is that we are about to get 2WD first update, which really should be very good in both confirming how well it works and that shorter intervals between doses is more effective, so double good news, possibly the best news in AVCT history. To be able to produce that info fairly soon makes his departure right now seem a bit odd to me.

But hey ho, it is what it is.

I don't care what you say just that your logic in continually castigating me and projecting false accusations at me is somewhat confounded by the FACTS

If you are talking about the shortlisting award? Well, AVCT have been nominated twice before and not won so I don't quite yet see the significance.

If they win it then great, but that will be new news and then i can see if it materially changes anything. Right now for me, it doesn't.

You think 3 posters are the reason this BB is rubbish? Not the fact that the decent posters have been 100% wrong in every forecast they have made might be the cause and can't face the fair criticism of their misplaced analysis?

How has my analysis been worthless by the way? What contribution have you made that was so valuable?

I am in the same boat with not understanding why small companies like ABDX go through this exercise, however I tend not to believe in co-incidences so this following on from the acquisition yesterday, suggests to me that this is part of a likely expansion plan.

I think this much more likely to be a positive than a neutral act. (imo dyor etc)

The flaw in your argument against me and others, is that I have been correct to be cautious and to be able to read more accurately both the market AVCT were trying to sell into during covid and there ambiguous RNS's.

I saw the LFT covid market shrinking way before most here did and therefore realised that the window AVCT for suceesful commercial testing had, was likely to be missed and therefore all the £100 ex china forecasts made here were very likely to be wrong.

Does that make me a fudster or just a bit smarter in my analysis than those that were here at the time?

Regarding this trial, based on the history of AVCT (nothing else just the company's own record), with their continued and so far 100% track record of missing self imposed deadlines, does it make me a fudster to expect that future deadlines are likely to be missed and that if they are, then financing would likely become an issue with the obvious depressing force on the SP?

Does that make me a Fudster being correct or just a bit smarter than the people who keep shouting that I am somehow a plethora of aliases, work for boiler rooms , and generally manipulate the SP?

The theme that I have noticed since being here is that the majority are too thick to understand the most basic rules of investment even when it repeatedly plays out in front of their own eyes year after year.

Limited portfolio and too much capital in any one stock, emotionally involved and seemingly no idea or plan about capital protection.

And as I said up top. my analysis has been broadly correct and that if you are all so conecerned that I might have influenced anyone then all I would have done is save them money.

So what exactly is your point?

That I should have chomped chomped at 160p or bought at 135p as that was never going to be seen again?

That AVCT can't miss? Not to worry how long it takes to monitise this tech assuming it works? To ignore the fact that we know nothing of whats going on behind the scenes?

But as always the height of some posters analysis here, is that it is a few posters on this BB that are soley responsible for the current SP and its fall from 285 over the last 3 years.

Brilliant

Is that what it has come to?

implied threats because you don't agree with another's pov?

Do you have any idea about the concept of free speech?

Have you ever tried to imagine if it were you being denied your right to post your views?

What would your reaction be?

And when you still get on your high horses, do remember that had anyone sold based on these "terrible fudsters" , they would actually be richer now, which is the whole point of the se BB's.

But again I don't suppose for a single nano-second that you can see the illogicality of your position or the fact that you are trying to make sure people lose their money.

"Touk aka wynbore don’t be so predictable!"

oh.. the Irony...

And you have been wrong for many years too.

What does that tell you?

Probably that you don't learn from your mistakes.

And not all my posts have been against the trend. (ass you also know, but conveniently forget).

My posts try to give scenarios where the SP, when disconnected from what we believe to be the reality of AVCT, is where it is.

You may all see it differently but I always think " Money Talks", so if I have a choice between subjective, future hopes of an RNS against the actual SP, I default to assuming the SP is correct, so where or what explains the difference.

But I take money more seriously than you do so that my bad.

I think you will find its the BoD that cause the FUD (as a phrase you so glibly cast about).

Its the BoD that are partial with their info, its the BoD that have failed thus far to deliver on any commercialisation and it s the BoD that have failed to meet an published timeline. Its the BoD that bought the DX companies which did not seem clear to smoe at the time as to why.

Every question and query you have is aimed at the BoD as in FACT they are the ones that have cast doubt on the success of this trial with their "poor coms" you are all so quick to lament.

As always, you are so quick to deflect away from your own poor judgement as to blame of all people, other posters, for the "problems" which basically just means the AVCT SP, because if it were 200p none of this would merit a single line.

Hopeless, absolutely hopeless.

I don't see myself remotely as a victim? Thats your view not mine.

What I see is my poor judgement in holding a stock longer than I should have once it became obvious the RNS's were partial to the point of misleading.

That does not make me a victim. It just means its another bit of experience to take forward for the future.

The fact that many are so defensive here and take things, and want to make things, so personal is absurd when all we are discussing is a piece of paper (share certificate).

But the emotional investment many seem to have made is in my view counter productive to investment success and its a hard enough game as it is.

Have you seen the trajectory of the SP over the last 3 years?

At what point should I start getting "excited" or positive?

I have stuck with this because I fell for the "Jam tomorrow" sentiment constantly argued by AS, believing that it really was just a few months away, and then just another few months, and then having waited this long, just another few months before the dfining data would be released/proved.

My only personal solace is that I managed to profit from some trades so it has not been the waste of time and money it has been for so many here.

But yes, I am about as disillusioned as I have been for many a year on what has been intimated by the BoD against what has been delivered.

It is shocking, absolutely shocking.

And the story has deteriorated, not improved over time. But at least I have had the sense to scale back my holding to reflect my perceived risk/reward.

I quoted what he company said.

If the company does not keep the Share holders informed then it is further proof not to over commit.

If you are in some huge FTSE 100, where all that happens is the degree of profit alters from year to year then you can take a long term view.

AVCT is different. Its binary.

I mention this blindingly obvious fact only because it is not apparent to me on reading the majority of these posts.

"Therefore, in parallel with the completion of cohort 7, the Company intends to begin a short study to explore more frequent dosing (fortnightly) of AVA6000 as a first line treatment in patients with soft tissue sarcoma. The study is expected to begin in Q4 2023 subject to receipt of approval of a protocol amendment from the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA)."

That was sept......

Really, who knows whats going on....

Thompi,

I think this whole area of coms and the lack and poorness of it, is hugely misplaced here on this BB.

There is (relatively) nothing to communicate about. That's the point.

Realistically, if the company had great news to sing from the rooftops they would. They are not stupid, and I mean that.

Any company with a developing tech with good, positive or in AVCT's case, potentially groundbreaking, info would be releasing that data and publishing it non-stop.

It highlights the company potentially bringing it into the view of bigger partners/ or takeover offers beyond the usual suspects. It would make itself known to the wider market allowing funds that perhaps would not immediately look at this type of company to run the rule over it as well as perhaps attracting bigger PI's to build a small stake too, all of which bolsters the SP and increases the chance of better funding terms as and when necessary.

Yet this has never happened, even though they have changed companies to do this. Why is that?

I saw that with the covid raise. Yes, in hindsight it was a bit of a bandwagon exercise, but at the time loads of "investors" saw the potential returns on this novel approach and piled in based on what AVCT said.

There is a reason why the AVCT sp is where it is. There is a reason the science day flopped, there is a reason why the last but one raise was 95p and now this one at 50p.

The coms is not the issue.

I don't pretend to understand the science. (Yes I can keep up with the general thrust of what is being attempted as we all can), but to me it is obvious that the people who can break this down are seeing something else too.

Either its a long way to go with a lot more data needed to substantiate the first promising but tiny data trials to date, or it does not "work" as effectively as we hoped?

I don't know and neither do any of us here. but I tell you this for nothing, the SP always tells the story.

No "successful" company has a SP in this sort of long term downtrend.

This is not to say it won't get turned around and if it does the low at 40p will in hindsight, tell the story of all the failure of the covid tech, the delays and the extensions and the change in strategy and the sacking of Board members, the continuing dilution of RI's before it took off when new data arrived.

Whether it does take off or continues to decline none of us knows, but when we look back it will blindingly obvious how the SP reflected the story, with whatever outcome results.

To think we can predict any of this is always a case of Hubris, imo.