Member Info for wyndrum

CH I bought some at 44.77p (as I posted a couple of days ago) as it looked to me that maybe there was enough buying pressure to take the view that the next move was up.

Over analysing... me...!! blimey, I just look at the SP and marry it up to what we are told (which I don't think qualifies as research) and then act accordingly.

I've done fine thanks, in the meantime I post here to pass the time, like absolutely, everyone else.

CH a close above 49p would be a step towards confirming a reversal would be forming. a close above 58p would be much stronger.

Fingers crossed.

"Again I’m not looking at a week by week share chart, that’s just gambling. I’m looking at the overall trend of where this is heading as an investment opportunity back to a more reasonable valuation, not a quick trade. Although still awaiting that FDA approval catalyst that’s the real prize imo."

well, week by week,... hmmm... 3 years ago it was 250p.

So gambling is simply defined by the amount of time you hold a stock? Thats crap, right...

Although as you say it hinges on FDA approval, which is due very soon? so doesn't it make more sense to invest (not gamble) as short a time as possible before FDA approval is granted?

You may or may not be right about AVCT long term success, who knows, what I don't understand is your blind refusal to ever acknowledge that any development in this long torturous SP slide has been anything other than seemingly expected and a confirmation that everything has gone to plan.

It always comes across as one-eyed, blind faith rather than ever any objective assessment. (Which as an investment strategy is extremely dangerous.)

Sorry, If we are back to the market is as thick as mince then that's a pretty weak argument now I think.

Ice, so why didn't the SP reflect this fantastic trial development? Why did it fall instead of rise (and that was way before the RI).

You simply can't divorce the SP from this as its our only gauge to whether or not this investment will pay off.

I can't see the point of a "cure" being found but a SP of 10p can you? And wouldn't you say if they have found a cure that the SP wouldn't be 10p?

Because then you have to admit that the SP reflects (in some measure), what the trial is "proving".

So we have had all the extra , surprising cohorts, taking more time than was ever forecast with an absence of any license deal or TO offer with a severely lower SP over the that time interval.

How does the reality support your analysis given mine is "total rubbish"?

Loveable, Thats the nub of it I think: ".... they initially planned for 4 cohorts and 12 patients and we had a delay to change the design to 7 cohorts but we also have 42 patients so much more data"

That says to me (in conjunction with the SP,), that the initial start of the trial did not "exceed" any sort of expectation, as more patients were needed, more dosing, different rates, to try and "prove" it was worth carrying on.

I think the 2WD has actually confirmed the disappointment (relatively speaking) from the initial expectations of the trial.

They have got results but it needed some pretty drastic on the hoof tweaking to see if the platform could be of as much use as hoped for.

Anyway, its difficult (for me) to square the SP decline over this length of time with a trial that has exceeded expectations.

What were you expecting then, other than 1 patient being on the trial this long showing a fantastic result (for him).

You think after all this time, all the dosing, all the cohorts, all the flip flopping around that this has exceeded what you expected when it started, then fair enough.

You tell me, what has taken place that has been better than expected, given the incredibly high bar from when we started?

Time line has over run by years, causing more cash raises and dilution than ever contemplated. Results are partial, There is a lot of key info we don't know, but given where the raise was pitched I make the assumption that its "promising" as opposed to pardigm shifting (at this stage).

Just my opinion, but you may be one of those that simply doesn't care about this stock as an investment.

Timing is everything. But again, you and I might be talking about different things.

Not not quite a binary play Sheps, as there is the DX division and that market is huge but in the short term that seems a ways off.

So its TX or bust (literally maybe?)

If W2D does go better than expected then I would expect a re rate to around 130-150p as it should com into the spotlight. From there if should trigger all sorts of interest

The potential down side that nothing to date has gone better than expected, and has co-incided with taking longer to, if not underwhelm, then weave on. This then makes this death spiral scenario more of a possibility, but I would expect at that stage it gets delisted and then bought out privately, bypassing the LTH's completely.

End game time now, as I said before. 18 months maybe , with some very key data releases along the way. No margin (imo) for any stumbles.

My "feeling" is given the ultimate lack lustre response of the market over the trial's time thus far, is that it isn't quite the magic bullet I perhaps thought. New platform with loads of potential, sure, but if it just trundles on then its years away still, with millions more to be spent before commercialisation, and as I say at the stage it will not be around as a PLC. (DYOR etc)

Yesterday's price action was a doji formation. (ohlc), (opened, went up and down and closed at the same price as it opened)

In itself its a common enough one day pattern, but if we close up today then it would indicate a reversal, with yesterday's Doji suggesting a bottom had formed.

This was/is much more relevant in day trading and scalping smaller moves, but with the RSI supporting at least a bounce then there are very tentative signs of a reversal here , but this is very much at the "possible" (or maybe straw- grasping) stage of a turn around.

I took loads off the table between 130p and 89p (75%)

Gje, I have no idea what the SP will do. My interpretation of the SP movement suggests to me that a rise is more likely than further falls below, say 40p as a floor.

It is balanced at the moment as there is no "overwhelming" case for a reversal, except the RSI suggest we are also close to it being very oversold suggesting at least a bounce.

The whole point of a chart is that the market knows more than me so a rise before news is released often indicates a leak.

I am cautious and that is why I bought some yesterday keeping plenty off the table for further buys if it does fall another 5-10% . The alternative (if it does not fall further) is to wait for 58p to be breached before committing more funds.

The chart ignores the fundamentals, basing the SP already reflecting the FA analysis.

I don't know what the SP will do, but I thinks the odds are better for a rise than a fall from around here (40p-44p)

Ice, it was the chart that showed people were int he know.......

Gje, if there is no demonstrably good news from the trial over the next 12-24 months then the bond is the least of AVCT's problems.

Sellers don't have to be "desperate". I would have thought many would have already sold if they wanted to crystalise their loss, what would they have been waiting for? (Some here already have stated it has fallen to low to make it worth selling.)

Now the focus is more on when to buy rather than sell.

I think it would take unexpected bad news to force a sharp decline.

I also imagine a lacklustre update is already priced in. Certainly any good news I think would lift the SP from around these levels.

One of the things to note is that update is 4 months old, so there will be (or should be) a bit of reporting on what has happened over the last 4 months and general expectations for the next 8 months ahead.

"Don’t know why anyone would bother charting an aim company tbh"

because most often the SP moves before any news is announced.

Presumably you think it was coincidence that the SP started to fall almost continuously 3 weeks prior to the announcement? and a 15% drop over the 3 days prior to the raise?

How long ago was the gap formed?

I disagree with both the 38p and 23p targets.

It might not even go to 41p. (or 41.5p) to be exact.

That's is the obvious target, however some will not wait for it to get there who want to buy based on it not quite achieving that "perfect" price and will base their decision on a risk reward ratio.

58p is the first target so 14p gain. Buy now and have a stop at 40p, 4p loss. That's an acceptable RRR. The next target would be 75p.

So if the SP shows continued resilience around the current price of 44p it might translate to a shift in mood to not expect 41.5p to be hit.

If it did move away from here and moved substantially upwards, then looking back, the recent low of 44.5p would look like confirmation of bouncing off the 41.5p previous low.

FOMO plays a large part in all of this which is why it is neither exact or predictable in any certain sense. Its just an odds game.

Right now people who are looking at this stock and using TA to time their entry will be making these calculations to wait for a lower entry or get on board now and not try to be too cute.

I hope you are right on all counts.