Member Info for wyndrum

It would seem so Thorn.

Here's me trying to desperately understand what a RNS says and then listening to CC and AS.

But its all beyond me, clearly.... I'll tell you how stupid I am... I thought this part of the trial was about safety and not efficacy, so the small sample group with all the different tumours and previous treatments taints the by-product of any seen efficacy other than a tantalising glimpse of what might be in reach when that part of the trial starts.

Oh, well... lucky we have so many well researched chemists, doctors and scientists here to put me straight....

BV, none of us know exactly the definitions of this particular trial.

All this has been idle speculation as can be seen by reading the thread. (Thats fine , but thats all it is.)

The people who do understand it will have passed this on to the market. The SP is down on the week prior to the poster and the presentations and interviews.

As this continues a trend in posters, presentations and interviews, my conclusions are.

1: Its not about the science, its about the money:

2: It may be the data is inconclusive. because A: its too small a sample or B: its irrelevant as the Efficacy part of the trial h has yet to be started.

In any event having made this data public and continuing to do so over the length of the trial has coincided with the SP falling.

Why would that be?

If I am correct and it is about the money then that's where our focus should be I think rather than insulting people for being a tad more perceptive than perhaps you have been in making money out this investment.

"I can leave that investment cash in indefinitely, also not worried if I win or lose. You are the one that seems to be worried about timelines and obsessing over hypothetical scenarios, are you playing with more than you can afford to lose? You can’t even acknowledge that the likelihood of success of approval is higher than failure."

Clearly ICE, We can't square thus circle but i'm not debating the merits of AVCT.

I'm just seeing the most bizzare logic being played out by you to justify that you think you are an "investor".

Leaving money in a stock indefinitely with no return or indeed a loss is a "failed" stock pick, call it what you like. Thats not investing thats just hoping.

I don't like losing....ever... but thats me. I have learnt the hard way that capital preservation is the first rule of "investing. (Its immaterial who uses what strategy for success, thats not the point).

I don't obsess, and again stop presuming you know my mental state. Its clear to me you enjoy trying to "wind me up". But you are not. I don't know if you believe the inherently stupid things you post, but I can only go on whats in front of me, but you keep saying that you judge my remarks by what you believe my motives are, and like so many others you invent a character that is about as far removed from me as its possible to be.

How do we know success is more likely than failure? The only history we actually have is how AVCT publicised and posted about the LFT and that did not work, so there is a red flag to start with.

Has this trial with the MTD, no MTD, MTD, 2WD, extra cohorts, still in P1a, gone according to how you originally thought.

The faith you have that success is higher than likely failure is only based on what AVCT have told you and again you have come to back to the only reference we have and that was the time of the LFT.

(And to not try to "game" various scenarios as I do, is such a naive thought process as to be beyond belief.)

Again, do what you like, but don't keep spouting you are an "investor as though somehow that misnomer that applies to your logic will have any effect on whether you make money or not. You have no idea when this will come ggod (assuming it does), no idea what the final price will be, and therefore no way of knowing if the years of taking this risk will "pay off"

you have bet on a longshot. It will either pay off or not but don't kid yourself there is any skill on your part to the result.

Ice, the irony that you can''t see is that you say things like:

"If the FDA approves AVA6000. I will win, if they don’t approve it then I will lose. Everything going on in the meantime doesn’t concern me. One way or another the FDA will make that decision. I don’t chase rainbows, on a hamster wheel playing for 10% profit ramping or de ramping on multiple bb’s chasing my next gambling fix. Will leave that up to you."

So on a binary play that you don't know what the result will be or when a decision will be made, you accuse me of Chasing rainbows.... and you can't see the colossal gamble you are taking?

FDA approval could take years, you do know that don't you? They just don't sling it out on a whim...there needs to be conclusive almost irrifutable data. and if they are not happy they ask for more data sets and its around 5-6 months a pop once they have it.

For instance, say they ask for one more cohort, that's 3 months in the constructing and 3-6 months in the dosing with the collation of the data before submitting it and maybe 3 months plus for the FDA to get round to looking at it, and then they say.. "could you just confirm..." and its another 6 month merry go round.

This might not happen, but equally it could.

And the reason the SP is where it is, is because right now AVCT do not have enough data on efficacy to and are months away from starting that part of the trial.

But yeah... its me that has the gambling problem.

" The share price is completely irrelevant to me"

Fair enough.

Pointless conversation on an investment BB when someone admits that.

OMG!!! ICE WAKE UP!

"Why would I do that, you talk absolute BS based on the current position you are in"

What position am I in? You ignore what I say as BS based on an assumption you have absolutely know knowledge on.

" if you believe in AVA6000 longer term as an investor you might as well buy in now based on your research, ..."

You could have said that at 135p couldn't you? Why buy in now? don't you care about capital appreciation?

Let me hold your hand through your logic.

You have researched this stock (ie read the RNS's seen the interviews). Based on that you will wait to see how this pans out.

How long is long term? The first RNS said phase 2 would be finished by summer 2023 So we are currently 3 years behind that schedule. Thats the trouble with long term, where do you want to start the clock? AVCT has spent £200m or close to to be still in P1a. Now LFT is off the pitch the SP has been in decline for years with lower and lower SP and ever more dilution.

Why would it re-rate to 100p quickly? On a license deal that AS has told you specifically he won't do until phase 2 is out and efficacy is proven? Thats 12-18 months away. And that assumes no slippage, and that assumes nothing goes wrong. Sure a TO could come out of the blue but don't tell me you base investment decision on that type of event.

(And don't kid yourself when I trade its just for 10%. Thats what I mean about lazy inaccurate assumptions. You have simply no idea of my money management criteria. You have no idea how much money I make each year, you have no idea how many stocks I have or am invested in. But it suits your argument to dismiss in this case my approach, by simply INVENTING and making up a fictitious scenario to try and justify this, to date for lth's, very, very poor investment.

I don't care what you do and I understand LTH. I just think your assumptions are not backed up by the history of the company and is akin to buying a lottery ticket every week and the assumptions is..."someone wins it every week, so this week, it could be me!"

Ice, remove your opinion of me and what you think are the reasons of why what and when I post. You simply don't know, you are just guessing and it won't help you in your decision making in AVCT. (And guess what, your assumptions are wrong).

Nobody knows what might be released in the next few weeks.

However, given we have waited this long for a Poster and update and 2 presentations all in one week, suggests, reasonably, that there is nothing further coming in the next few weeks regards the science.

We do have the trading update/results but given AS 's now infamous, "don't worry about funding" and looking at non-dilutive ways, and then we have just had a heavily discounted RI (which I'm afraid is typical of a company struggling to raise money ), then its more likely than not that any rabbit is not in that particular hat.

Is the above a reasonable train of thought? Doesn't mean it will correct, but based on what we know historically and what has just come to pass,is it a fair guess?

Your guesses, are based on nothing other than a surprise event or two, or even 3 and by its very nature, it is unlikely.

And yes if this stock reaches a value I think is as good as its going to likely get, then I will sell and move on. But what in that event what would you do differently?

fwiw, you seem to me in your posts to attach too much weight to the unlikeliest scenario as being the one most soonest and likelist to occur. And again fwiw, stop focusing on "traders" as though somehow the frequency of buying or selling a stock has any influence on the most likely turn of events.

If we cut to the chase, all of this boils down to is money.

The wisdom or not of buying the DX companies is just about allocation of funds.

We will get an update soon enough.

In the meantime, it seems at long last, some here who have spent years insulting me because I focused on the money rather than the science, seem now to get it.

The SP is lower now than before the poster and presentations.... Think about that....

ITS NOT ABOUT THE SCIENCE. ITS ABOUT THE MONEY.

AVCT are still years away from commercialisation. Right now the market is sceptical on whether there is actually enough money to get it to a saleable proposition before it runs out and another cash raise is due.

In the short term there is one or maybe 2 Heights sales to go which based on past performance will depress the SP.

So, why buy now if you LIKELY, MIGHT be able to buy in lower down in the next 2-4 weeks?

Its hardly PHD economics is it?

AVCT is a traded PLC, therefore you buy with the aim of selling higher. This does not make you some sort of evil bastard, merely an average person who thinks they might make some money, but given thats hard to do with aim companies, they show caution.

There has been no reward for being a lth in AVCT. The odds always from the outset said that. The earlier you get in the more variables and potential paths there are. To expect it to go down the 1 path you want is a huge odds against gamble.

Time really is money.

So now PL is talking about the SP maybe falling due to heights selling and another cash raise already so soon after this one...

Hmm..... well he is catching up faster now but at least its not FUD.....

Reported for false and misleading info

Yeah.... crappy, ain't it.....

Exactly Rick... who knows... I think there is a bias sometimes to think we know more than we actually do.

As though somehow reading a RNS gives us Mystic Meg-like ability to be able to predict the future......

Perfect FOMO stock.

Likely RI which could be below current price.

On the other hand one RNS, X Tweet/Linkedin message confirming the current surveys suggest even bigger find than at first thought will send the SP up.

And given whether there is a raise or not or when, it is most likey that the SP will go up once all this dust and uncertainty has settled.

So FOMO....maybe... or P&D.... or just normal volatility.......

"Any competent BOD would first and foremost fund the progress of the prime asset - namely AVA6000"

I think that is too simplistic.

What if, when the LD purchase was on the cards, AVCT knew that the trial was at least 3 years away from efficacy?

But in any event if they thought it would make money and support the business then why not.

As Bella has pointed out it is simply a colossal market, that AVCt already had a toe hold in.

I seem to recall most of us here at the time thought it very shrewd....

I haven't bought in yet.

I do trust the science. About at least a year ago I said something like if not exactly: "Its not about the science, the market knows it works" in response to the market being declared and largely supported on this BB as "Thick as Mince".

I am keener than some here to make money from this stock. So to me timing is important.

The difference seems to be I am happy to pay, say, 60p a share if it looks more derisked and less likely to fall back, than buy ay 52p and it then falls to 40p and I could have got 25% more shares for the same money.

Nano: "I very much doubt AS will go anywhere near explaining why Avacta bought an obvious 'Trojan Horse' such as Launch and 18 months later hoist a 'For Sale' sign over the whole Diagnostics division. To my mind it just goes to show how utterly clueless and incompetent AS is from a business perspective -"

I can see the (potential) logic of buying the companies inasmuch its a HUGE market, possibly bigger that the TX side of what AVCT are trying to do. AVCT already have/had a DX division. It may also have held out the promise of (relatively) immediate cash flow/profit. Certainly the development of affimers would have seemed at the time, a good fit to get it more quickly into the market.

My best guess on all this is that I think for whatever reason, there have been delays within the trial of AVA6k and this has completely upset the pathway timelines which not only affected cash flow projections done at the time, but also then cast doubt to further funders as to when this could be commercialised.

As to what business acumen the BoD have or don't have is impossible to say based on the limited info we have but as we all know the whole point of going public, on AIM, is the ability to raise "free money" for developing, loss making companies, and this is the perfect place for AVCT.

AIM is not quite the "wild west casino" some here imagine. Perhaps if they understood the high risk nature of companies that come to AIM, it would make more sense to them.

"I thought it was the usual superlative display. As in a display of superlatives. Oooh I felt all warm and cosy until I looked at the share price."

Well done Pl, you have caught up again.

How long have I been saying that you can't ignore the SP.?, that there is more to this than the science? Now you think all of a sudden the current SP is of use as some sort of indicator?

As for trading position, I expect falls to come when heights start selling. (maybe they have already I don't know), but if after the poster and 2 presentations the SP is lower than before I am making the assumption there is no short term appetite for this stock.

If you want me to let you know when I have bought I can of course although what difference it makes to you I have no idea. fwiw I still think 41p is more likely than not and if it gets to around that number I might/probably will add some.

Every interview, I can see what he he looks like. I may be old but I can still see. I am quite good at body language too by the way.

I am sure that the questions were carefully chosen by him prior to the interview so he could answer them fully so he looked assured and on the top of his game. I am willing to bet, (that's the gambler in me coming out), that he would have been possibly shocked/disconcerted by the questions he did not answer and the probable latent anger/dissatisfaction oozing out of them. (I am basing that on the conversation I had with the chap from Pope Turner)

But hey, I could be completely wrong.

Apre, there is now new data and info.

As a result this allows views to be confirmed or altered on this new news.

My take away is there is little chance of any buy out or license deal for the foreseeable future (12 months). I am not convinced there ever was any conversation of commercial deals in the offing. (A bit like someone offering so little for your house that it was nonsensical, but it allows you to say someone wants buy your house...implying its a desirable residence)

Not sure how long the money will last because I don't know the cash burn rate and if it increases as the trial continues.

It sounded like to me they are paring things right down to just 1 go at this to make the money go further.

My reading is that AS looked tired, and I think the business side of this now is/has overtaken the science and its a race to prove efficacy before the money runs out.

Wearegroot, and you think you are not tedious, with your constant and repetitive, silly assumptions?

Today I think has been an ok day here. Exchange of opinions and views without the insults has allowed ideas and threads to develop.

As a small for instance, I thought if a DX sale allowed, that the bond would be cleared but on reflection listening to the other posts I agree that any money raised would be kept in house.