Member Info for wyndrum

"All that matters is how much Avacta is worth on FDA approval of AVA6000. Everything else in the meantime is irrelevant, if you believe FDA approval will happen. "

It really isn't. The price you paid for the stock is what matters and then most importantly what you end up selling it for.

Otherwise all you are doing is taking an interest in the science which is all well and good but if the aim is to make money then its potentially a related but not necessarily, key component.

Yes, its been quite the education Nicepair, still my experience (fwiw) has also taught me it is always about timing.

(I was interested in the way the fall stopped today so I have added some at a very precise 44.77p )

It depends on what time frame you use.

Its not relevant using an intraday price unless you are day trading, ie closing your position before the end of the day.

So, 41p (or close to, therabouts) is the number.

Gje, its the lowest the SP has been in 3 years. its basically a relevant all time low.

The SP fell to 42p rallied a tiny amount, tested that low again within a week at 41.5p before moving away.

The added significance is that this after the LFT SP influence.

Whether its mumbo jumbo or not, charts and SP numbers, recent lows/highs etc etc are looked at by a large number of people and it becomes irrelevant if its self fulfilling or not, it is simply a fact of life that we ALL look at the SP and get an emotional feeling when we see it. (Ain't that the truth!).

Anyway, we are getting close to a significant number (41p), impossible to know if this will be the bottom, but the odds are pretty strong.

The4 more significant the number the stronger the reaction generally is.

The downside is, if it does not bounce, or falls further then people may quickly sell their position to make a very small loss and that "extra" selling pressure does indeed cause a lower price.

Ignore what you think of me, its not important, but my view from a TA pov, has been ever since 52p was broken after the rally to 58p suggested that 41p would be a target.

If I am waiting for that price before I take a punt then I am pretty sure I am not alone.

Anyway, we may be close now to the end of this painful episode.....(At least I think the odds are on our side)

Thats fair enough LDA, I don't have that much experience on Aim, but certainly my experience has been 99% of rosy tinted utterings which have all been remarkable in their distance away from what has come to pass.

There is only one CEO so far that has delivered on what they said and they are new to the role (the previous one left for not delivering on what he forecast), the rest have been imo somewhere between disingenuous and misleading.

Bigger the risk, bigger the reward, but again, I think that saying only reveals the high risk attached to most Aim companies.

I'm afraid this is the risk of investing and managing your own portfolio.

Aim is a market designed for small companies that will be able to raise money to develop their business.

That very mission-type statement means that every CEO will always paint the very best picture of their company and whatever it is involved in, so as to continually convince people to continue funding it.

I have no idea, truly, no idea, why after the things that were said about LFT and what came to pass, why anyone here is surprised or shocked by anything that the BoD say.

These companies are not run for our benefit. We are parasites trying to get rich off their hard work and innovation.

Other than the small amount of opportunity we are randomly given to take part in any cash raises we offer nothing to the company... at all... so why would they care about PI's?

II's are given time to flip the shares if they want so as to make a profit if it presents itself.

For people who bought at 50p are now already sitting on a 15% loss.

Its a high risk game and if you have not worked it out yet, its all a bit of a gamble.

I would not expect any contrition from AS on the update. Quite the reverse I think.....

Still, who knows....he might surprise us all.

I think you will find NFT that I have said a few times recently that ousting AS at the earliest opportunity would destabilise the SP.

Its not collusion that when a SP is tanking over many months that more and more people might think its not the best investment.

The SP is where it is due to the delays in the trials progress leading to a cash shortage's leading to a forced RI at 50p caused by the previous bond terms at the last raise before the 50p one.

That's whats done it. Not collusion, no agenda, etc

"Micro hypothetical BS as always"

I get you don't agree Ice, but stop calling it BS will you, seeing as the price has been in decline for years and drastically so in the last 6 months. Not so much micro either, hardly spikes down for a day does it)

And that coincides with better and better data, so how do you square that?. I can but its just more..."Micro hypothetical BS as always"

Thats the problem now Ice, there have been no offers at this stage, so BP are not interested. We all assume they are looking at AVCT but we don't know that.

What If an opportunistic bid was to come at 80p then what?

Look at scenarios that you don't like but are possible.. And remember if someone said to you 6 months ago the SP would be in the mid 40's what would your reaction have been?

Could it have been "before you ask me some hypothetical BS micro question that won’t happen. "

"The share price and sentiment will turn eventually just need to wait it out or take advantage of this discount."

How would you feel if an 80p buy-out was offered?

Its a high risk strategy gje, assuming the £27m sale came off.

Say they pay cash for a couple of quarters and then they decide not to, and revert to share dilution? what would be the inference to the market then?

(On the other hand the SP is pretty trashed already so its hard to see how much more damage could be done.)

Certainly if that occurred it would be the right time to remove AS of his position. It would be a "clean sweep" operation. Draw a line under everything thats gone before. The new Bod in charge would have to have the confidence of the city however. If it was an "unknown" then the Sp would/might not immediately recover.

I think the cash now in (in this scenario), would have to be with a new ceo, with a statement of a cast iron guaranteed cash run way until the end of phase 2 at least, with some extra savings along the way. (maybe redundancies?) Something that demonstrates the new broom is actually up to the job and taking the money seriously.

(Personally I would like know what the point of moving to London was. I do get the feeling that there have been various setbacks that have caused a lot of money to be spent that was never forecast. The alternative is that the whole BoD are in fact incompetent. Who knows?)

Because NFT, the risk reward initially was fantastic. However the dilution and crash in the SP has dented my "enthusiasm".

I off loaded most of my holding between 130p and 88p but will buy more again when either the picture is clearer, or if it falls to about 41p ish because I am willing to gamble that it could bounce from there.

You can use pejorative words like "pathetic" if you want, but as an investor its important to me to preserve capital and not just watch it collapse.

Likewise if I see an opportunity to make or maximise profit/money I will take it.

You have to understand my degree of enthusiasm or positivity (or lack of it) has no bearing on the SP performance, so I don't get quite so het up as some here do on wearing these emotions on my sleeve.

I have found these emotional reactions cloud rational decisions or sometimes cause a paralysis of action.

I am conflicted by the (positive) data on one hand yet the depressed SP on the other, (the reaction to the poster event for me is not a good short term signal, but that's just my opinion.

And I do know/accept that SP's can suddenly rocket (for no apparent reason, accept there is always a reason), so I will let the trial trundle on and hope the data supports a buyout before AVCT runs out of money again.

Whether it does or does not, will not be affected by any of my, or indeed your, emotional responses to the stock.

WAG, you are funny.

I am invested, so wrong on that.

I am only me no other accounts, so wrong on that,

I don't talk the share down. I just urge caution to some of the what seems to me over optimistic posts.) The SP moves down without any input from me. So wrong on that,

Give the SP is 48p you will have to tell me where I am repeatedly wrong in my predictions. So, wrong about that,

I don't lose money in every share I bet on, so wrong on that.

Its odd isn't it, anyone here who is not as enthusiastic as say you, are just one person with multiple accounts but all the peoples who's view you agree with, are separate individuals?

I only highlight this to show how "sad" you are to invent these ridiculous scenarios to justify as an inaccurate post as ever posted.

I understand the argument Steve, its just that I can't see FDA approval on a trial that is not measuring efficacy but because its a by product will waive it through.

But who knows, it would be nice to have unexpected good news for a change.

So, the FDA are so keen on the results thus far, but not enough to approve yet, but if W2D shows better safety then it will be approved?

So right on the cusp which I guess means that so far the trial does not warrant approval on safety grounds?

So therefore under your logic so far not conclusive, but if it were a bit better (2WD) then they will approve?

But these results have to be kept secret because it could jeopardise the trial?

Yes of course you are entitled to your opinion.

I was just trying to see what it was based on other than wishful thinking.

Certainly the language you used did not suggest it was an opinion. Claiming the FDA want this to market asap, was quite the statement.

if so, what (in your opinion) is holding them back now?

"...the FDA are now in the driving seat with this trial knowing they want this to market ASAP."

Do they? where does it say that?

"AS stated in Q&A we are in close talks with FDA and don’t want to jeopardise those talks on answering questions related to the trial."

How does talking about trial related questions jeopardise the trial?

"AS stated in Q&A we are in close talks with FDA..."

Oh God, have we not been here before? The "talks" could have been "finish P2 next year and we can talk again"

Have you already forgotten the " No worries on funding, ha ha"?

No., there were no worries on funding, it had been sorted at 50p, you thought it meant no dilution or no funding at all.

You could be right I spose, but there is little supporting evidence that this will be any sooner than normal, other than your very wishful thinking.

(You are not RAH, are you?)

". 4 green boxes after my post implies the disruptive twats wouldn’t like my suggestions for some reason. "

Perhaps if you had listend earlier to the "disruptive twats " you would be sitting on quite the large capital loss as you are currently are?

I know its hard, but you made this bed for yourself, if you had been more accommodating to different views instead of being vitriolic and completely over-the-top in your personal criticism to them, you would not have painted your self into this corner, where having lost the argument to these views, you were then as your last course of action, forced to " filter" them.

But of course you haven't, because you can't ever resist posting here about these green boxes these "filtered" posters, without knowing who they are or what they have said.

So still you act out this pointless charade of being above it all while at the same time being wrong in every expectation you have had this company.

Your confusion is perfectly encapsulated where you want AS to leave but hang on his every word. Because I don't quite understand how you can have quite so much faith in the "science" when most of the framing of the how good the science is, comes out of the mouth of AS himself.

I wonder (in general terms, not AVCT specific) if the enforced blackout is to give the funds time to off load (if they choose)before the details/terms of the raise become public?