Member Info for wyndrum

Chief, its unlikely there are any positive short term drivers for the SP right now, other than an unexpected event.

We have already been told that DX won't be profitable until 2025, we have had a heavily discounted RI which suggests there was no immediate compelling good news to arrive. We have had a poster, 2 presentations and a Q&A which resulted in a lower SP now than the day before the exhibition kicked off. And we are expecting a dump of several million shares from Heights.

AS also confirmed there would be no license deals in the foreseeable future having apparently already rebuffed any lesser deals.

So where is the SP appreciation to come from?

Where was the release of all the extra data at a more significant venue that was meant to move the SP. Has it been and gone?

The irony will not be lost on me if GSA have had wind that there will be a move to oust AS, knowing what that would do to distabilise the company. A thing so many of you here crave.

In any event, if as the chart thinks a fall to around 40p is more likely than not, that 20% drop would be a very profitable trade.

So many here have this all-or-nothing view of this stock it is beyond belief.

ES: Do you think its personal then? Do you think he has deliberately targeted AVCT because they are a Cancer company?

Grow up.

AVCt have put themselves in this situation, no one else. GSA would not be taking this risk unless they thought the company are susceptible.

There could be (in theory) a TO bid tomorrow and GSA would be hit hard. The fact is they think that very unlikely.

Even if AVCt was forced to delist the science would carry on.

I have been banging this drum forever trying to get through some pretty thick skulls that the Science is different to the company.

The only people at risk are the shareholders.

Hi Kaeren,

I think there is circumstantial evidence, or it may as you say be coincidence. In any event Its difficult to put too much weight on what the BoD say, given their constant missed timelines on the refinance deal.

certainly a potential asset the size of IM must be in the calculation somewhere in the refinance structure. Its like valuing your house and you have an acre of land with it that's ownership is in dispute. The re-mortgage would likely be held off until resolved given the size of the loan requested.

Probably too simplistic, however it does have the merit of (to me) of being "obvious" so I would be of the view that the two are intimately entwined.

Sorry, I don't want to stir the pot, but the lines aren't arbitrary and setting the stops is a bit of an art form in its way given its trying to identify what the crowd will do.

Anyway, there is a bit more to it than it might seem at first glance.

Its unlikely I will sell at 80 on this one as I have spent longer here than expected due to the CEO not delivering the finance on time.....This has allowed me to build up a bit of a stake in this one and as I am now in profit I will play this one a little more fluidly but with a bias to hold as I think the FA case is (just imo) bolstered by the politics.

I think that the company is currently priced to fail however I think its location (NI), the Govt defence contract awarded and the apparent govt approval of the new financing suggests to me that this is potentially one of the least risk/highest re-rating due to the embarrassment the govt would suffer if this went belly up after all their involvement and with any potential unemployment that might happen, stocks I'm aware of.

And if that doesn't put the kybosh on it, nothing will......:0))

Hi CI,

Hope you are well,

This is an ongoing thread that was updated only this morning.

The RSI was 68.84 at close last night. (I only get twitchy at 80, but it is nevertheless getting toppy and if it hangs on to today's rise then it will be getting close to the 80 number

I think you will find digi, its the number of your filters thats the problem. And as you won't read them you have no idea of the content. And yet you post anyway. The logic of this always baffles me.

The other reason you perhaps don't see as many posters you prefer to suit your bias, is because they obviously don't post here as much if at all.

That could be for a variety of reasons, deciding this BB does not offer anything to them any more, that they have sold up and moved on, that they are embarrassed with their failed predictions.

Gje, this has been mentioned a few times now. What post of mine was ever a "massive ramping exponent of HE1?"

(forever I kept reminding people that it was a binary play and in fact still is to an extent (which I have also posted) but the odds are now much better

And its somewhat deflective, no one was talking about me or HE1

That's a little disingenuous gje, his analysis has been based on the results. and he has (and still has), quite a few supporters here who have appreciated his "papers" on AVCT over the years.

There was a time the release of his latest update even moved the SP.....

Sorry gje, I misread your post.

(I thought it was pI's not having the panic attack.)

In any event, I guess it is academic, the SP will be what it is and given the PI's are the biggest collective share holder, what they do is probably the most important factor in determining the SP?

"they are not like pi's and highly unlikely to have a panic attack and start selling their shares if it dips below 50p."

Ok, then who has been selling the SP down from 185p over the last 18 months?

Ultimately I will "trust" the Chart (otherwise whats the point. )

(My stop is 11.5p)

Pretty tight spread right now so have topped up as the sale price was 12.23p, so this is going to get as close as I reasonably expect to the support of a mid price of 12.25. (The buy price was 12.55p)

Time will tell (dyor etc)

The RSi is starting to get a bit toppy which i know you noted orininally.

Tomorrow will be interesting. Either a pull back (again) to unwind the RSI or a consolidation/increase to around 13p...

In any event, short of a very big spike, it looks most likely (to me) that it will fall back at some stage to test 12.25p as a .....final....chance for the laggards to get on board. :0))

(DYOR etc)

Sitting on my hands now Si!

How exciting!

I think the trial to date has to be seen in context with what AS said in the Q&A when he was asked have AVCT done enough to let potential interested parties know of this Holy Grail development and he said no (which at the time I was pretty unimpressed with), and siad maybe letting cancer patient frpiup's know might of be an area they could target.

Either this means the data to date is so "weak" inasmuch as its just about safety and we are all jumping the gun here on circumstantial efficay results, or they have missed ahuge trick.

I am thinking its a bit of both but had AVCT kept these particular patient groups informed from the begining then getting volunteers for the next cohorts and stages might have gone a tad quicker.

Anyway we are where we are...

Ok, ICE tell me this.

When is the FDA going to approve AVA6k.

Serious question because its critical.

You simply cannot divorce the company's finance from the science.

I have gone to great lengths to try and show you that but you seem wilful in refusing to acknowlede the 2 sides of this coin. and of the 2 the money is the more imporant because without the money somebody else can buy the science at our expense.

So given FDA approval is absolutely fundamental, when do you think it will be forth coming?

Ice you really must listen to "Cabin Pressure". Thorn's likening you to Arthur was both very funny and seemingly accurate.

Your latest twisted question is somewhat flawed.

For a start where have I ever, ever said I think that the science will fail? (I think the opposite as you well know, inasmuch as so far so good.)

I do think the odds on failure are greater that success but thats based on stats. (And also backed up be a seemingly never ending SP decline as the trial progresses.)

This leads me to believe that its more about the money than the science.

I can see a scenario whereby AVCT get bought out at a very low SP and someone else goes on to exploit the tech at effectively our expense.

The science is not always the be all and end all of companies like this.

I mentioned a while back now that maybe there were forces that were deliberately slowing the trial down to protect their investment in drugs and therapies that AVCT would eat into or make redundant. That was just idle speculation and still is but I mentioned it because of the known unscrupulous people out in BP. That was before of course the last raise at 50p.

The "death Spiral" that has been joked about and a resulting 20p SP here, I also thought was far too fanciful to be taken seriously. But things have changed.

The Heights selling coming up is going to be critical for AVCT I think. I have no idea what will happen or what the SP will do, but....

The RI has been and gone, there does not seem to have been much if any follow through on buying at these, what some here would seem give away prices. (You being one of them). So the funds that bought the stock were given time to flip if they wanted to with a quick 10% plus profit. Certainly there is no evidence that they continued to buy on the outside market after the event. And not all the RI was taken up by PI's who were allowed to take part.

So, who is going to buy the 7m shares that heights are going to dump for payment?

And even if you were thinking of buying looking at the history of the SP why buy now and not a bit later when they most likely will be cheaper.

And remember, none of this affects AVCT or the trial or the science.

The SP goes up and down without any money going to AVCT. But a low(er ) SP does allow an opportunistic buy out.

Its ok saying there is enough money for 18-24 months, but that is speculative because we don't know cash burn and we don't know if overheads are going to increase, or if in that time the trial gets delayed.

I know in your fantasy world none of this happens, its all very collegiate and everybody is helping everybody else for the greater good, and profits and competition is just for other companies, not the very nice people in BP