Member Info for wyndrum

That's a plausible scenario, the only bit I might take issue with is when you say "The other comment that stood out yesterday was that the cash runway was required to strengthen the negotiating position, so that may have also been a clue as to what prevailed here."

That to me sounded a bit like typical AS BS. More likely I think is that AVCT borrowed as much as they could to get as far down the testing slipway as possible given there are always unforeseens that trip up the best laid plans.

Anyway, they have the money.

DX is the next hurdle. If they can't sell it for enough to clear the bond then they have to keep it and suffer the drain on resources and a drag on SP appreciation. So presumably it will be the lesser of 2 evils that will dictate that course of action. But we shall soon have a clear idea whats going on there.

Yes indeed, in which case why do it now?

If they had to, on a previous thread that they had less than 1 years cash to keep solvent, it might go someway to explaining the current SP. It was last ditch stuff...

We might never know but I do remember when BP had the oil disaster in the Gulf, it was later reported that it was at one stage, hours away from bankruptcy and that is multi-multi-multi billion dollar company.

Maybe from the business perspective it has been far more precarious than any of us have imagined.

It might explain the frequency of shorts out on the company and for all the vitriol expended on this subject, the risk of shorting a company is very high, you don't do it on a whim, or for a bit of malicious fun as many here seem to imply.

It might also explain the downward trend in the SP for so long, in that the risk of administration has been greater than the chance of a buyout within the timeframe of commercial approval, assuming that those hurdles are overcome.

We are back to probably acknowledging that this is a small, high risk bio-tech in which the vast majority fail rather than succeed.

Perhaps the market is not as thick as mince after all?

More likely gje, AVCT has little or no say in any of it.

You have to assume AVCT needed the mony not the hedge funds needing to loan it.

Best off the top of my head analogy:

You desperately need a loan. High St. bank APR 9% but they won't lend you the cash. SPIV Bk, 36% APR happy to loan you the dosh.... what choice do you have?

I think it just confirms that AVCT do not have a commercial product yet.

(That was presumably why it was a bond and not a RI previously because then, that was the only deal in town and maybe it came with the requirement of buying those companies...?.... Ok thats a stretch, but my point is, don't work on the assumption that AVCT are in control of their own destiny. when it comes to finances.

The world is full of patented ideas that never get to see the light of day. Thats the market AVCT are in until its approved with a capital "A"

Well, at last, it seems more here are starting to divorce the business from the science....

To throw in my 2p.

The history is a double bottom was formed on the 25th March at a closing price of 9.75p. Since then it has recovered to where we are now (11.25p)

So technically we are in a trading range between a support of 9.75p and the resistance of the recent high of 12.25p.

If we have a close and hold at say, 12.5p then a first target would be to double this gap/range of 2.5p, indicating at least a move to 14.75p. As this is a minimum target then the 15.3p spike would seem a more plausible figure to aim for.

So until we close at 12.5p then we twiddle our thumbs. (according to the charts anyway :0))

Yes all true Hurst and you said buy more at 133p too.

(And the market has not actually worked out anything to do with AVCT in the way you misleadingly imply, given the SP is now resting on its raise price and gone down/remained flat over the last couple of days)

"AS is clearly well out of his depth from a business perspective (not the science). He has made multiple serious business errors that have cost shareholders dearly and grossly eroded value (see SP for unequivocal evidence). "

Really?

Based on what?

He has a product that is currently not worth the market cap. It is too early for it to be sold to realise anything like its value IF it should pass the up-coming hurdles.

That fact would be evident whoever was running the business.

The only thing a new CEO could potentially do would be to reduce overheads or run the business in a less cash-burning way to extend the runway before the next cash raise.

AVCT have IP. Once proven it is worth a fortune but right now its not worth very much. Quite what a new CEO would do is unclear to me, other than cast doubt on everything AS has done and said to date, causing a SP collapse

I think AS has had to BS and give over optimistic timelines to keep the lights on through various RI's to bring this to a conclusion.

My best guess is we are in the end game now. 12-18 months to get phase 2 done, There will be no more cash raises. If the data proves concept, then they will get bought out. If not, no one will fund them.

Right now I don't think it's as conclusive as AS is proclaiming as there are no TR1's being announced. There is no stake building that we can see. But if 2WD goes well, then we could/should get to see some activity.

The DX is more of puzzle, but looking at ABDX, there are huge markets to be tapped in this field, so maybe there was more logic to this purchase than we have been shown to date. The April results will resolve that I think.

Anyway, imo AS is not the problem.

In that case we need to get 80p...... so £8m-12m profit to support that price, I guess.

12 months ... (maybe....) :0))

(Just my opinion DYOR etc)

After looking at the Q&A. thats what I am figuring too gje... (we agree...how about that....)

Thing is I am not sure we do get approval after completing phase 2. (That was the bit that I found contradictory so I will work on the assumption that a successful, completed phase 2 allows phase 3 to go ahead and it is only when phase 3 is done does it get the "approval" that allows it to be proscribed.)

My thinking is if 2WD shows great results, then that should propel the SP so I think this round of heights selling will potentially produce the "low" as in 3 months time we should have that data, to support the SP and even if further selling does depress the SP it will be from a higher level.

I also think it possible that DX will be sold in the next 3 months too. That money will then be used to clear the heights loan.

Anyway, I think there's more chance that we are now or close to, the lows. (imo dyor etc)

I know we have been over this but what I heard in the Q&A was there HAS to be phase 3 that gets wrapped up with Phase 2 for ultimate approval.

So, there will be a phase 3. (it did sound a bit contradictory at one stage but historically I think it prudent to take the longest indication to approval as the most likely.)

However it sounded equally clear the ultimate goal would seem to be bought out. It could be AVCT will have no choice.

Then it becomes a timing issue. When and for how much?

Data is key so I don't know, its all in the realms of guess work, but it sounds like the end of the year (assuming no slippage.. ha ha, let me say that again...) probably Q1 2025.

Where will the SP be... million dollar question in the meantime.

Depends on the reaction to the last few days, but if it remains muted then Heights is likely to depress it in which case for me that would be the signal to buy over the next few weeks. (Just my opinion, Dyor etc etc)

Closed at 11p today...still on track to have a go at 12p. (Hopefully tomorrow. It would be bullish if it did.)

"Yet you write essay length replies just for the fun of it."

well yeah... duh... otherwise why would I do it?

I do actually find it "fun" to try and explain my position clearly. Where my brilliant plan fails is that you and the other's deliberately ignore what i say and make up lies instead, which then makes me repeat ad nauseam what I have previously said.

So yes it is all your fault....

(PS my mental health is fine... yours on the other hand......)

Honestly you lot, you really do need to get a life.

Why are you so obsessed with me? Who cares what I do?

I think you will find that I am always suggesting people do their own research and usually say its an odds game and just what I think is most likely.

It hardly qualifies for ramps does it.

As for HE1 I bought at .21p, (and said so at the time!) the profit on that one transaction covered my entire loss of when I bough originally and then some.

So i am fine with it.

I am up 15% at ABDX from when I suggested a couple of weeks ago based on the chart.... (ha ha....it looked a good place to get in. again I mentioned that there too).

I remain a shareholder in AVCt because I believe my risk (money) at stake is commensurate with the potential reward.

I just see more risk attached than some here. But guess what , if AS convinces me today I will buy 1000'1' and 1000's more shares tomorrow.

Will that make you happy?

I am guessing it won't because you have already made up you mind on me now and forever but thats what a closed mind will always do.

And always remember... I don't care what you think... it does not affect me in any way. It makes no difference to you if I win or lose either, so do everyone here a favour and try and get over yourselves and your silly emotional outpourings.

Stop worrying about me Ice and spend more time being objective on your own investments.

fwiw I would waste your time bragging about how useless I am when you see yourself as more knowledgeable than the rest of the entire market. I would also assume that you confidence in being smarter than the rest of the market as allowed you to profit from every other stock you have ever bought to?

Goodness knows why you post every day... what a sad life you must have....

Yes I got contacted too.. I posted this but it got deleted here... there's news..... I thought I was quite careful in what I said and was not warned prior to the phone call that any of it was confidential, but hey ho.

It will be interesting to see how the Q&A goes.

Its amusing that people who urge caution or are not as gung ho here are sad individuals to post.

But all the ones that agree with others that is it fine to sit on capital losses and do nothing about it are somehow superior with their lives and post just as much if not more.

I do sometimes wonder if they are even aware of how transparent they are in their deluded confirmation bias

do what you like donkey but you can you tell me where i advised selling?.... why make stuff up?

if you want **** me off just do it. you can join the rest of the really sharp investors here...being sarcastic while sitting on large capital losses always dilutes their message.

i don't know why you get so defensive. i can't help the sp being what it is. all i do is react to changing conditions to protect my capital.

i am sorry you find it so offensive, this being an investment bb after all.

if you ever actually want to think about your holding ask yourself the question "when i bought in, did i expect the sp to fall?" and if you were prepared for some volatility did you ever expect to see 50p?

are you surprised/disappointed that years in p1a is still ongoing?

did you expect to buy dx companies? are you disappointed with the result of owning dx companies?

doo you actually have any idea whats going on with avct compared to what you expected way back when?

but yeah, keep up the abuse rather than look at your own mismanagement of this part of your portfolio.

Oh for gods sake, what I have been saying ever since the 50p raise (and in fact before when the SP was in the 80')s that a TO at a very low price was now on the table? I think 150p would do it so yes I would take 200p now rather than wait years down the track with all the uncertainty that goes with it.

So guess what, the science could work and yet lth's don't particularly benefit.....

" your views and posts on Avacta should therefore not be trusted in the slightest, and hold absolutely no worth whatsoever. "

quite right gje.

On that basis can you point me to someone here I should trust?

(I know I have urged caution due to what i thought most likely coming from an SP pov, can you remind me what the SP was 12 months ago, 24 months ago and 36 months ago?)

Over the years I have fallen out with ophidian MM, RAH and possibly Tom the Bomb, being accused of pretty much what you are saying about me. should we all have trusted them and their forecasts?

You are aware I presume of the forecasts of the SP last night on opening today, by many here when the RNS came out. Should I have trusted them?

Hi Muck, yes it all looks to be coming together, and although at the moment, I can't see what the valuation could be, it would seem to be at a substantial premium to where it is now.

I think this is such a small cap that due to its size it HAS to go under the radar of ii's but with a couple more promising RNS's confirming extra sales order/contracts in effect making no more cash raises likely, will cause a re-rate and then as the mkt cap increases so it will then creep on to more analysts spread sheets.

So I wait for the virtuous circle that I believe has actually started (as foretold by the charts! ha ha :0))

atb