Member Info for wyndrum

Don't know gje, Did you expect a cash raise at 50p with £16m in the bank?

How much is DX losing? Will this next phase of the trial increase cash burn?

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. This is hard earned money of ours after all....

Ice, its tricky, because we have had great results thus far. So will the next 12 months be sufficient in the trials progress to move the SP.

I don't know what will happen. (Obviously), There will be 1 if not 2 share dumps before we get much new info (probably).

It all depends where the SP bottoms out to then put future rises into perspective.

I think the uncertainty is one of the reasons why the SP is under such pressure.

For instance I feel this poster in April, now, is a big deal. I hope it is.

" The sniff of a license deal and this 3 or 4 bags! Commercial validation transforms this instantly and destroys pretty much every single attack line of FUD in a single go. It will happen without warning just like that. This was sitting at 130p just a few months ago when funding concerns loomed large. Those concerns are now gone for years"

And is their a "sniff" of a license deal? Is their any sign of commercial validation?

The cash is apparently good to last til Feb 26. (But to believe that you have to trust AS on his time line predictions. To do that is illogical based on him missing every single timeline so fa) But even on that basis when do you think AVCT will go to market? 6 months before? sooner? So 15 months-18 months is a more realistic time frame. Not Years is it?

Also the last 3 raises have been: 1@120p, 1@95p, and 1@50p. What price the next one?

I offer these scenarios to try and show there are alternative outcomes to your one view.

I never cease to be amazed at the seemingly cavalier approach many here have to losses. If you sell right now its about 7% below the offer price of just a few days ago.

Any yet this is another great "opportunity to "fill yer boots"

Not many here would last long as fund manager's.

Still at least none of you are gambler's....

(I would point out too Watching that you have posted more than twice than what I have here in the last 30 days.)

You being obsessed about me is not normal, me just having the time to reply to posts I think worth a response to on a BB seems ok

No i tend to stop when I leave work, so wrong again

no I am not paid..wrong again.

You are far too emotional, watching.

I am not a doomster, simply trying to see if there is a rational or plausible explanation as to why there seems to be the disconnect Muff articulated.

You look for the most ridiculous unlikely explanations in my posts rather than the obvious one.

Mc Muff, it could be that the market thinks there are more falls to come before it bottoms out?

maybe buying a house is a good analogy.

The house is a nice 4 bed detached in a good area. It will stay all of those things but interest rates have gone up and so the price is falling. Do you buy now or gamble it will fall further? If the expectation is for interest rates to rise further then its odds on the price will come down more. so maybe best to wait.

carrying on with this, it looks like rates have topped out and the next move will be a fall in rates, but the fall will be so small that it won't have an effect so its likely more people on fixed rates will have to renew at higher payments in the coming 12 months forcing more distressed sales causing a further fall in house prices.

None of this affects the nice house or area. Its still as nice as it was at its peak.

More specifically, many here want AS to go. That will cause disruption. How would the SP react? Up because his incompetence will now be removed and everything in the science will be better? (probably not..). Up, because things can now speed up and it gets to market quicker? (probably not).

Up, because the new CEO will tell the "truth"? meaning it will take longer to get to market than forecast? (probably not.)

Or, down because its an admission the company has been at best, mismanaged or worse it may cause some to think the results are not quite as good as reported or both?

I for one don't want AS removed now at this stage.

So the market is uncertain as to exactly whats going on and thinks the SP is likely to fall further. if that is the case it become self fulfilling and that's where I think we are.

So not as disconnected maybe as it seems.

I have never gloated and have always been upfront on my continued holding here.

so wrong on both assumptions.

I don't hold enough stock here to care if it goes tits up. This allows me a degree of objectivity that some here mis-intepret as arrogance.

This might not last long as my posts are getting deleted again

Fair enough.

The new risk for me at this low price now given where AVCT is in the trial, is a takeover could be at a much lower level.

I understand we see the importance of the SP differently. Again fair enough.

I accept surprising news could/would change sentiment overnight.

However for me, the down trend and imo, low level of the raise agreed, suggests to me that this at best, is a long haul still.

And to project a few years ahead let alone a decade given how the last few years has gone SP wise, is so speculative as to be pointless.

Ice, the more important part is not the "In this case the chance of Success for AVA6000 is the same if the price was 300 or 20p." its at what price the individual bought at.

At some stage you must surely acknowledge that there is a huge sliding scale of what "success" looks like?

You don't know when this will be commercially available. You don't know what profit AVCT will make from this tech. You don't know how well it works in terms of outcomes.

If you are going to ignore the SP from this lack of knowledge how do you value AVCT?

Is it simply on the single best outcome and no other scenarios are even considered? And what are you basing this single valuation on anyway? just on gross sales on Dox rather than any sort of profit metric? Are you banking on it being bought out or going it alone? and over what time period do you expect the Tech to be around? And if different drugs to Dox what trials will have to be used for them to prove safety/efficacy etc?

Yes Ronny, I know that, I basically asked when do you know when its stopped or started being irrational?

This is a very subjective game stock picking, that can be played in hindsight but only when, using hindsight, the result tallies with your desired result.

Ronny, don't forget to mention that as the market and all of us here expected December to be the end of the safety trial, which had already over run on expected timelines, with C4 with a SP around 160p.

Now 15 months later and lots more data it is 50p.

What does that tell you?

(If its the market being stupid at 50p, then were they smart at 160p?. If the market was smart at 160p why and how did they become so stupid now.

Or was the market stupid at 160p and the company was wildly over valued then and reflects a better reality now?

If you can never rely of the market to be "correct" in its valuation, how are you going to know when to sell or what the SP will need to be to represent value?

"Newbies, read the last rns, we have chemo without side effects working and the entry price is just unbelievable with a lot more to come in the very near future"

It does have side effects. just not as severe as by not using the platform. Exactly what side affects are present and to what degree are not clear, neither is it clear how they increase (or not) dependent on the dose. The fact that up to now np MTD has been found is clearly very encouraging.

Also how it "works" is literally the million dollar question.

If it "worked in the way it is assumed to already by many here then obviously there would not be a 50p SP.

All we seem to know for reasonable certainty is that the wrapper (platform) does stop dox entering the blood stream until it encounters the tumour. (And the obvious by product of that is a severe reduction in most of the side affects associated with Dox.)

What happens then is still to be verified in more suitable patients over the coming years.

Personally and I think this might chime with many here, is I expected this to be "proven" sooner. After all these years, we are only just about completing the very first part of the trial, ie safety.

It would seem there are still years to go.

"Why do you think this isn’t actually the correct strategy for the LTH"

Because you need to divorce the company from the Share Price.

This is an investment. Go work for AVCT if you just love the science.

Say, just say, the SP falls to 40p. It could easily be bought out at 120p and then BP runs with it. How would that work for the LTH?

This blinkered outlook to potential scenarios is quite something.

Well, thats the gamble.

What if they get results back that improve on whats has already been stated?

(i'm not saying they will but what was the point of the last raise if it was not enough to get more info? Why didn't they just raise more money to be able to drill what ever test well etc etc to be able to say, "This is what we have, now we can look at JV, future funding whatever")

Anyway, who knows timelines and cash burn... it s all a crap shoot from start to finish.

You missed 1 post of mine to delete.

Chop chop

ES, your assumptions are based on what information?

I take it you have never gone to the bank to borrow money when you don't have enough security to cover the loan.

The "don't worry, we will trade our way out of this" approach does not cut much ice. The bank simply increase their rate on the interest to be commensurate with the risk they believe they are taking.

Why you think, after AS already sign posting that the company was overvalued, that this was not coming was perhaps the most obvious clue what was coming.

I did not see 50p coming. The fact that was the best he could get suggests this is still high risk and/or a long, long way to go yet.