Member Info for wyndrum

Printerman.

Stocks can go down as well as up. Capital preservation is a very important part of running a portfolio.

fwiw I don't think and have never thought that anything posted here makes any difference to the SP. (look at all the posts that are optimistic and make the case for future value. They outnumber have always outnumbered the bear case here and yet the SP is where is.

No doubt if someone made a compelling case to buy at 50p and you decided to do that and it wnet o100p youe would be very pleased?

If someone made a compelling case that at 100p the SP would fall to 50p would you not be as grateful if it saved you money?

The difference is you may have bought above 100p and dont want to crystalise a loss and therefore don't want to hear the bear case.

You then transfer your anxiety for your (potential) loss on to the messenger.

Ultimately if you only ever bet what you can COMFORTABLY afford to lose these types of conversations become irrelevant as objectivity is allowed to flourish. Once over committed fear and greed take over, and once that happens, good luck.....

ATDB.

My only "agenda" is capital preservation.

This trial has over run by years and is now being extended yet further, on the very first leg of its journey.

Nothing AVCT has forecasted has occurred in enough published detail to convince the market that this will succeed.

If, the data to date was compelling then there would be a swirl of interest from other companies to get a foothold. Where is the license deal?

The "market" if this was so compelling, would not have forced a 50p RI.

AVCT could I think now be bought out at around 100p-150p today, which would be a huge premium to the current SP.

If a bid does not come in, what does it tell you? That BP want really to pay 500p-10000p a year down the track for the same tech with the same data set?

Therefore my logic and every bit of outside signal is saying the data is not compelling at this stage.

Yes other factors can affect a SP, but this stock has had a declining SP for THREE years. This is not a bit of fluctuation.

And not for nothing if the SP does not hold at this level (52p) then guess what, 41p comes in as a target.

And the lower the SP falls to the greater the chance of a bid (should someone see it as value), becomes at an ever lower takeout price. (Then 100p all of a sudden looks good)

Where are TR1's? where is any fund or rival company building a stake?

None of us here have EVER had the first idea whats going on actually at AVCT. The only info we have had is the SP to gauge what the market thinks.

It seems to me the latest delay in commercialisation only adds to a likely shrinking market for this tech as other therapies come on line. If this really does "work" but is 4-5 years away, then what life span does it have? If it is in a smaller market it is likely to continue to shrink each year.

It really is eerily like the LFT. There is a window of opportunity and this window, again seems to be if not closing, certainly getting smaller. imo.

Morning notrex.

Do you at least understand where I was coming from now?

Is there any chance at all of reasoned debate?

Guess what, my posts were deleted.

ABDX Market cap £10.4m

AVCT market cap £164.9m

Therefore ABDX is roughly 1/16 of AVCT's value

A 16th of AVCT of sp would be 3.25p i

So when people say the SP is already trashed I was simply saying that if there is no commercial benefit to the TX business then you are left with the DX. and that' where the comparison with ABDX came from.

Thats the downside or risk.

How likely is it?

Who knows, accept the longer the trial has continued so has the SP declined. If all was well then the opposite should have happened. To spell it out. A trial that has had years of results that is impressing the market should be going up not down.

Maybe its just because its still years away from commerciality and who knows what will happen in the interim. Like I say, who knows.

What a disappointing bunch you are on here that can't even argue basic market fundamentals.

This BB stoops to ever shallower depths of usefulness.

Still, its the "best researched BB on LSE" isn't it?

Notrex, if the trial ultimately fails then AVCT are left with a DX business. The 2 bought companies with manufacture and design are close enough for my comparison to say the SP has still, unfortunately, a lot of downside from the current 50 odd p,

"Let's face it, they can hardly trash the share price can they?"

Wow careful what you wish for!!!!

ABDC are a DX company potentially just about to turn the corner to profitability and they are a 16th of the value of AVCT. That puts AVCT at approx 3-4p a share if this trial does not yeild benefits.

Thats the downside.

The trial has been going 2or 4= 3years and the SP has been in decline all that time.

Clearly it has not exceeded a single expectation.

Anything AS says about what he believes might happen in the future should be at this point, surely, ignored?

IF it comes good fantastic, if it does not.. then best not to be over committed because this is not a done deal imo,

"We raised money to go solo and take AVA6000 through phase 2 ourselves. Why? What’s in the data to change from partner for phase 2 as per the AGM strategy, to now taking all the risk solo?"

I dunno, maybe nobody else wanted to license/fund it/TO based on the available info and that was the only option available?

Or, the data is so good its a much better financial strategy to keep it all in house?

(The problem I have with that option, is that if there is already such good data available then you would release it and then raise money, justifiably at a much higher level, than 50p. Also given the confusion on phase 1a, 1b, phase 2 and now phase 3 and timelines, it does not suggest to me a coherent story from only 6 months ago from AVCT.)

So based on what has gone before at AVCT and their commercial acumen I remain sceptical, rather than optimistic at this stage until further info is released.

Jam, the point is (I think) that the material increase in sales at the higher margins after the streamlining of costs and processes, will negat the need for any further raises.

So yes, more money will be needed for increased production but it won't mean an increase in other fixed overheads and therefore the 53% profit margin over the last 2 months and coming 4 months will at last propel ABDX to a going concern. (Or at least put it on a stable financial footing). (Dyor etc)

Sadly filtering doesn't stop you commenting on just about every time I post either.

The point of a filter is not to read and therefore ignore that poster's views.

You should try it.

The open-ended questions Tim, as you well know are to highlight the baseless assumptions others continually here make.

You might remember, RAH, TTB, DTW et al as well as NYS,PL, ICE, and you who indulge in ever only considering one outcome and at the same refusing to discuss or back up those baseless assumptions when questioned.

Much easier to hurl abuse and lies though isn't it.

"'Break 57p. 65 is on the cards

Only patience is required'"

who said that? and what was the basis of that prediction? and what has happened to the SP since?

I am not called wynbore for nothing, but that is only because I try to explain my reasoning behind my guesses so others can either debate or at least understand why I come to the conclusions I do.

I have never said otherwise Fisherman.

I don't know how many times I have posted but I work on the "odds", what's "most likely" based on fairly standard TA.

I have a plan that I stick to that works more often than it fails.

I don't bother posting buys and sells any more because it means nothing to anyone else but in high risks stocks I am generally very active to take any advantage I think presents itself.

Of course you don't.

You don't want to refute my "guesses" with any sort of coherent counter- argument because you can't.

Pathetic

Is it pure guesswork to say its going to rise and causing euphoria?

(And what has actually happened over the last 3 YEARS to the SP?

How do you think the SP will react to another 7-8m share dump shortly given the Pi's have just exhausted their funds by topping up at 50p which by the way was undersubscribed?

Who's buying those shares?

Watching, the SP is 52p!

Its not me, or anyting I have ever posted.

All I have done is generally, to be ahead of SP falls and warning posters here what I thought was coming and explaining my reasons for my thoughts.

If anything it has been a positive.

Only you can see alerting posters to a likely fall in their wealth as "causing trouble".

Unbelievable!

What are you so scared of?

Its pathetic.

My post was simply saying its not about the money that could or could not have been raised at any given time, but the conduct of the trial and its constant change of direction that has caused a SP collapse.

The SP only increased to the level it did on the outpouring of AS in interviews and RNS's which turned out to over egg the pudding. Reality has now been uncovered and the SP has reacted accordingly.

You really should stop shooting the messenger or better still go live in Russia or China.

I think the point is not about the money raised and could it have been more at a higher level sooner etc, but the problem is now the uncertainty of the whole trial process and the constant change of time and parameters to get to the end of it.

Thats the problem. The money is a by product of the total lack of clarity form the very start of this trial going right back to the first RNS when it was all in total, to be completed by the summer of 2023.

No one here has a clue years into the trial what is going on, or what to believe,

And the worst part is that this mirrors the same path as the LFT saga. Which thens brings into question the whole integrity of the company because it looks as though this is their MO, Obfuscate, be ambiguous, potentially mislead.

Thats the problem (imo )

The difference DG is that ABDX is valued even after this rise at £10m as opposed to AVCT's market cap of £167m.

Also the ABDX RNS is saying no further raises necessary, so from a buyers pov, this is the time to buy as there is much less chance of any future dilution.

(That's the potential problem here, why buy now if there is a fair chance of another cash raise in 18-24 months?)

Rambo: "They could and should have done an open offer at £1 to start with and you might have got half the funds no problem."

Really, and what if there had been a problem? Who had deep enough pockets after all the encouragement to PI's to top up north of 100p?

The broker would have to have have the public offering underwritten and guess who that would have been? II's.

And what if the II's said no chance but we are interested at 50p?

Can you imagine how debilitating to the SP it would have been if only half was taken up....esp when you still have the bond depressing the SP every couple of months.

No one sees this a bargain at 50p hence why the SP is at 50p currently (give or take), it might be seen as "fair value" but that's the best gloss you can put on it right now.

ATBD, I think it was easy to raise at 50p because that was the price they wanted to do the funding.

What was harder was for PI's to stump up cash. Word almost always gets out ahead of the game which is why I like the SP. It tends to be a less fallible indicator of what is happening when "no news" is out there. I thought for instance 70-80p was the likely target price once the SP declined under 92p. So I am not claiming I knew what price was eventually set, but I thought the odds were great that a "low" price raise was coming.

The howls of anguish here only tell me that some here are pretty inexperienced in the way the market often works and in fact niave in believing everything they are "told" without thinking for themselves.

And when I say "believe", I am referring to a more objective view and at least considering alternative meanings to ambiguous statements. (And while I am here, any and every FUTURE based statement is open to at least 2 alternatives! :0))