Member Info for wyndrum

So what are we saying then?

Basically all good in fact brilliant news and we are nearly there.... again?

With a JV/license deal about to break?

AVCT had £16m in the bank before this so can't be quite as close as you think or, this is to help a TO at a much lower level?

(I have 150p on the brain, but its just a round number and means nothing other than a 3 fold increase from here and values AVCT at half a bil..... which could be quite the coup for someone...)

Although I am just guessing the point is AS intimated months ago that AVCT was seen as potentially over valued at the then current SP which with a bit of reading between the lines, suggests talks had taken place about what the SP would need to be for the next raise.

Couldn't be at 130p and then do it at 50p so, drop a hint, spread the rumour, let the SP sink and then 50p , bad as it is isn't as bad as it would have looked at 130 p ish

At some stage, some of you have to realise, this is not a charity gig, and its not AIM and the MM's that manipulates the SP but the big players putting the crush on AVCT. And AVCT is not in control. but does partake in the deception.

Think about knowing last year your house was worth £500k but now its valued at around £400k apparently. You HAVE to move but no one will buy it except the companies that will give you cash for it. They value it at £320k. Its not that you house is worthless but you are not in position to drive the deal. Its a take it or leave it thing.

So thats how I see this fund raise. The rest is, who knows... the tech may come to pass it may not.

Remember we know NOTHING about anything to do with AVCT.

And please don't kid you selves because most of you said no fund raise was coming and even those that thought it might, did not see 50p.

Thats what "research" does for you.

The SP tells you always what you need to know, It can't forecast surprises but then neither can anything and the thing is a surprise is a rare event, otherwise it would not be a surprise.

In this case the SP was walked and talked down over several weeks but not everyone here could or wanted to see it.

How many signals did you need!?

AVCT raised £11m in July 18, £9m in Oct 19, £48m in 2020, £64m in 2022, and now what, another £36m and we are likely not done yet

£150m plus in less than 6 years. Thats some cash burn and where are we exactly?

Those are facts, not invented FUD.

Ice its not a cop out.

You don't run the bank balance to Zero before getting more.

How many posters (were you one of them), that said no funding was necessary and that any talk of a cash raise was wrong and FUD, recently?

If they quote 24 months of cash then 2 things:

One, Assuming they are correct in their forecast then they will ask for more between 3-6 months before then. (Hence the next one in 18 months or so) They have 16m in the bank and with all this cash coming in they see it lasting another 24 months The cash burn is accelerating isn't it? (it sounds like £2m per month)

Two, what if they forecast is ambitious and they don't quite make it?

Again I err on the side of caution and with this company why would you do anything else?

Ice you say read the RNS: ""Critically, this financing provides Avacta with 24 months of cash runway to focus on advancing AVA6000 through the clinic, as well as progressing other assets earlier in the development cycle to hit key commercial milestones."

Its a crap shoot....

Read this bit then too,

"Certain statements in this announcement are forward-looking statements which are based on the Company's expectations, intentions and projections regarding its future performance, anticipated events or trends and other matters that are not historical facts. These forward-looking statements, which may use words such as "aim", "anticipate", "believe", "intend", "estimate", "expect" and words of similar meaning, include all matters that are not historical facts. These forward-looking statements involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause the actual results of operations, financial condition, liquidity and dividend policy and the development of the industries in which the Company's businesses operate to differ materially from the impression created by the forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Given those risks and uncertainties, prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this announcement and cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance"

Bfd, we have gone from paradigm shift to competing with other treatments.

That says to me that AVCT are are not expecting to dominate the field. That affects valuations going forward.

I have said before. AVCT are not working in a vacuum. New treatments and improvements are happening fortunately all the time. Vaccines seem to have a future to certain types of cancer. Gene therapy again seems well advanced in some areas.

Another factor is expense. New therapies will have a (high) premium on them to begin with. To make Dox effective (its an old very toxic drug) it may mean their cost will remain static limiting how much extra AVA6k is worth as an extra. (I don't know, but I am clearly more cautious than most here).

I am not fan of analogies but I liken AVCt to making the combustion engine more efficient while everyone else is going after hydrogen fuel cell/electric vehicles.

Right now the new electric tech is expensive and therefore making old tech more effective is great but there will be a tipping point.

Thats why time is so important. To me this has been put back another 18 months to mid/late 2025.

If AVCT are to be bought out the selling price has just fallen dramatically too imo.

(Which if you are joining a new company with options, all of a sudden a 150p buy out for a few months/couple of years work might not be the worse deal you have ever made.....)

I never get over excited with new appointments. None of us know the background to why people leave or join.

(Plus the DX will run at a loss for most of this year meaning it has been a drain on the business of 24 months remember the last raise was for a whopping £64m. If they had not done that we would need this raise at 50p. The mismanagement is reasonably spectacular.)

Right now its a mess with a confused picture but it looks like a badly run company that has been selective with its reporting of data to ultimately give a less than clear understanding of exactly how effective the trial has been thus far. Certainly there are some side affects, we just don't know how much and how many more cycles will be available to the majority of patients and how long it will prolong life or at what quality or at what cost.

Again, yes it looks promising but there is along way to go and it feels now to me like we are just starting, both in timeline and expectation. (imo dyor etc)

Sorry Ice yes, 300p not 3000p (You are right, big Difference! :0))

I thought it was always the idea to keep as much as in house as possible, so I am not sure there is any change of plan that you refer to, and also to emphasize that, the raise keeps the lights on for about 18 months or so which means unless there are any surprise extra monies coming in, this raise does not give AVCT any chance to go it alone.

The best (reasonable) scenario is that the trial continues to go well and that it allows more RI's when necessary,.

The trick I think is to pile in when you don't think any more RI's are going to be necessary.

This RNS says the opposite to me.

( I wonder how the other ii's feel 4 years on, buying in then, at 120p.....)

The problem Ice, I think, is what to believe.

This latest RNs is very different to what went before in relation to ambition and the time to achieve that lower ambition.

You are basing, in your post, of a what if 3000p per share occurred next week, scenario.

But that is based on what AS has said previously. If you don't believe what AS said, then surely the expectation of market domination and 3000p per share has to be scaled back too?

That is the bit missing in the optimistic posts since the fund raise. If any of you think you were misled by AS previously, then surely the potential SP has to be reduced too.

So which one is right, this latest RNS or the previous ones?

If you think the latest one seems more realistic then I think overall returns need to be tamped down.

If you think AS was right all along then how do you account for the latest RNS?

Thanks D, As I say it becomes a pointless task for me to post. The thing to realise that my posts do not contravine ANY of LSE's guidelines. Which makes me think its just a trip wire that once there are a certain amount of applications for a post to be deleted it just goes.

Certainly there are no longer any 2 day suspensions or permanent poster removals.

Anyway, hopefully we can meet up on other less fractious BB's

You could be right Ice, but equally the same thinking could have been applied when the raise went in at 120p on the back of the cash raise around the pandemic.

So it might be wishful thinking that II's know more than we do regards "give away" pricing.

What is at least some sort of positive is that the SP is a few % above the placing price and not as some feared in the 40's or lower.

This will probably encourage PI's to take up their chunk too, which in turn if its over subscribed should give further impetus to the SP.

My best guess is that it will be around 55-60p on the back of that fair wind. Whether then that produces volatility will be the next indicator. If it does not produce too much selling to bank a quick 10% or so profit then it would suggest maybe the shareholders will be in it for the long(er) haul.

I put the money aside for just this possibility but expected it to be on the back of much better news and now I am not sure If I want to or not... Still, we all have a few days to mull it over.

Daffy: "But there are always a lot of sellers waiting to pounce."

we will see. The tussle between bulls and bears as resistance/support levels has to conclude with a winner at some stage.

If it does break through this is what will happen. The buyers start buying at 2.50p then the sellers sell, and there are not enough buyers at say, 2.45p and so it falls until buyers are attracted... great.

At some stage, in this lovely example... the buyers keep buying and it goes back to 2.5p and then.... there are no sellers left at 2.5p So,....if its not going down then it can only go up and thats why you can ger quite sharp movements when resistance levels break.

(The typical expectation is, the longer the resistance has held the more explosive it will be when broken)

imo dyor etc

Ok DTW, lets repeat all the rampy stuff instead. How did that work out?

(Its an insult to DG that you think we are one and the same. As far as I can see he clearly is a very decent person.)

But yet again you post as a fact something that is a 100% incorrect.

Might be a fun day today.

Fingers crossed...

I'll try again but I expect this to be deleted too.

Cash on hand according to the brokers note, beat consensus.

Two options I guess, overheads slashed or DX is making money. (or most likely a mixture of both.)

If, DX is making money then potentially a sale of it might bring in more than we think or, right now ,expect?

The downside in the note for me is now the clear(er) acceptance that timelines have been put back at least 12-24months

The Nazdaq listing comment needs clarification: 2 options again I think, Is it seriously being considered and costed out with a potential time to make a decision on whether to do it or not,

Or Is it just AS BS to dangle a carrot ala "we are going to quickly make an omicron test" with no real intent to do anything in the immediate future.

Still, to be fair to AS it was certainly an impactful statement....

There is a lot of info and data all wrapped up in the what looks like mismanagement of the company via the DX purchase, that I am not sure where AVCT is.

Timelines look to have slipped, (Quel surprise!), but there is more data on some nuggets of efficacy.

I don't know if there is enough money to get to the end of the trial or not anymore because I don't know what cash burn is. I don't know what the DX division is worth. These 2 factors are pretty key going forward.

In the meantime the market will be the arbiter in the how much good news/bad news is in all the RNS's released.

Might take a couple of days to find its balance though.

My initial thought is sit on my hands and see what comes to pass.

(I think It would be very bad for the SP if AS resigned at this stage. And fwiw, I don't think he will. A better time will be on the disclosure of good results at the end of the trial.) imo dyor etc.

Hi Ben,

"Was the price agreed weeks ago? Or was the discount percentage agreed weeks ago?"

I don't know but I would think it would be the price. AVCT would have taken advice from their broker as to what the price per share would need to be to likely get it away successfully, A percentage is too wooly, esp as AS basically told us that the II's thought the company was overvalued at this stage of the trial.

I am sure you are right Magic, but again it depends on how you see the market manipulation.

If you think as I do that it is a relatively rare occurrence then broadly speaking for every buy there is a seller and vice versa.

In which case the whole blue/red thing is irrelevant.

I'm with Skippy here.

Blaming movements (but only when its not in your favour I always note), on MM's manipulating the SP is a common theme for some posters on just about every BB.

Their job is to make an orderly market. When you consider the trading hysteria that surrounds any stock on such ground breaking news (see what I did there?), must be quite the task.

What I do believe they to do is that when the SP comes to a significant support or resistance level they may mark the SP at a certain level to see what the reaction is.

As an example, say at 2 45p they might artificially move the price to 2.55p to see who jumps on board or who immediately wants to sell. That way they quickly and briefly gauge market sentiment so as to have stock available to meet likely demand.

And one last thing. If you truly believe it is a corrupt and dishonest market, with prices set effectively by criminals, then why on earth have you bought the stock in the first place?

Magic,

its in a relatively tight trading range of 1.85 to 2.48.

I look at the chart from end of day closes and look at support and resistance coupled with the RS Indicator.

Currently the SP is in the middle of the range (and at 56.99, so is the RSI)

So from a trading pov you hold as anything in between these levels is classed as "noise".

A close above 2.5p would be a buying signal. And the greater the close above 2,5p on the day of the breakout, the stronger the signal is.

Likewise a close below 1.8p would be bearish and you would expect some selling.

Stocks like this, (loss making, news driven, small mkt cap), are hard to trade in the formal sense and as result most traders don't get involved.

What happens (imo), is that news breaks and "traders" for want of a better term, pile in and then simply sell when they have made whatever profit they wanted. Its not really chart driven per se.

So make of that what you will but 2.5p in the vacuum of news, has held on a few occasions, so it suggests that at that level, the buyers don't see value.

Anyway, right now its treading water because buyers and sellers are not sure what the next direction will be just yet.

imo dyor etc

Ok B2, sematic noted. I was asking why it would be more impactful to wait if the data was already available.

BV, thanks, so the wait is because more data is being collected before any announcement. I was under the impression the data was already available. Thanks for the clarification.

Yes Paul, I think AS's track record of his statements is at best unreliable and personally I don't put much weight on them.

(Every single time line has been missed. Every sales forecast has been missed. I seem to remember saying he would not manufacture LFT's when on his mini DX buying spree and yet...) Still when he says, don't worry about funding and he does not want it to be dilutive we are all free to believe it or not.

The (relative) new CEO of HE1 has over delivered on her promises when given timing of updates and repairs etc. As a result there are no grounds for me to double guess what she says.