Member Info for wyndrum

ATBD, I think it was easy to raise at 50p because that was the price they wanted to do the funding.

What was harder was for PI's to stump up cash. Word almost always gets out ahead of the game which is why I like the SP. It tends to be a less fallible indicator of what is happening when "no news" is out there. I thought for instance 70-80p was the likely target price once the SP declined under 92p. So I am not claiming I knew what price was eventually set, but I thought the odds were great that a "low" price raise was coming.

The howls of anguish here only tell me that some here are pretty inexperienced in the way the market often works and in fact niave in believing everything they are "told" without thinking for themselves.

And when I say "believe", I am referring to a more objective view and at least considering alternative meanings to ambiguous statements. (And while I am here, any and every FUTURE based statement is open to at least 2 alternatives! :0))

For goodness sake.... AS did not set the price... the funders did!

AS said that the company could be perceived as over valued relative to other companies at this stage in the market, when talking about new funding. How plain did that need to be!

He never had a say in it!

Blimey its hard work here.....

The fact that then comes from that, is that the trial is sufficiently far away that the risk reward was deemed unacceptable at anything over 50p.

I have no idea what goes through AS's mind when he pratlles on about time lines but here's the thing.

Science day was a flop, the SP has been falling just about ever since the trial started years ago. None of that made sense here and it was simply the market was as thick as mince.

God forbid there were some smarter people looking at the results and know BS when they smell it

Turns out after all, that the market was not as stupid as you all thought, was it.

This is by far the best rns for some considerable time (imo).

No cash raise needed, confirmed by a "robust" start to 2nd half (2 months is a chunk of the second half.)

The removal of a cash raise is the key takeaway for me.

It is only when there is a majority belief in the market that a loss making company no longer will be diluting share holders investment does it make sense to either increase their holding or attract new buyers believing a bottom has now formed. (imo dyor etc)

I think things have moved from:

"It works and its just a time line thing to gauge how well it works"

to "does it work?"

All the posts that would scream that it works always seemed detached from the point of the trial that was there simply to make sure it did not harm people.

The wrapper does indeed work. It transports Dox to the tumour. What happens then is not clear enough.

That will be the next part of the trial.

The doubt has been created in my mind by yet another seemingly delay in the trial.

How can it be this hard to screen patients to start dosing.

How can AS have stated a "quick TWD trail and nor many many months later it seems it has stalled. This does not make sense. to have made the statement would have meant they were already on it and preparing for it. Now it feels like it was just plucked out of the air and then his staff, thought, "cripes, that's new, we had better get on that.!"

As for the mysterious "European fund" participating, well I hope so, because that smells suspiously like the," Elite sports clubs are buying LFT" remark.

Right now it either works or it doesn't. Its as binary as ever,

If it does then there are great gains to be had. if it doesn't it will just be another AGL, ABDX, ODX et al.

Oh, we back to deleting my posts.

All i said was perhaps some of the blame lies with posters here not reading the RNS' correctly.

I read them one way and was hounded as a troll and spreading FUD, others read the same RNS's and saw imminent SP rise.

So who's at fault? AS or a lot of the regulars here who can only ever see one out come.

I think the argument often used was how much better these posters researched the company....

Skwizz,

I think the answer to your original question would have easily been answered reading through a few of the recent RNS's

Otherwise you were asking for a 2 year or so summary where a lot has happened in personnel, trial results and funding issues, which perhaps you would agree was a big ask....

CT, I understand, but it has not stopped AS remarking on the efficacy benefits in other individual patients.

So I take your point entirely re large scale extrapolation, but he could have made some qualified remark in what had been observed with these quite remarkable dosages of Dox.

Now the dust has settled I find it more likely that it was a designed strategy to get funding from ii's at a level they gain sufficient reward for the risk.

The only downside I see from this is that a potential TO may be quite a bit less then we were all dreaming of not so long ago. But that is quite a few assumptions I ma making and building on each one. But that is where my present thinking is taking me.

Its starting to make sense to me in other areas too.

(more assumptions coming.)

Maybe AS knew more funding was going to be needed to get to the end of the trial in September, so talked up pardigim shift etc, to increase the SP to help in raising max funds, but with the best of intentions, the II's were having none of it.

So he has had to eat quite a lot of humble pie in the intervening period. That would explain why as usual they get the lions share of the opportunity. The "good" news, is perhaps, now we are in a period where the hyperbole can go on the back burner and they just give accurate updates. The interview with Paul Hill, or whoever will be (for me) the first test.

Release the data without unambigious statements.

Its that or presumably.. no future for AS?

"“Cohort 7, at a dose of 385mg/m2 (equivalent to approximately 3.5 times the normal dose of doxorubicin), has not shown to date the typical drug-related cardiotoxicity and pharmacokinetic data suggest that AVA6000 has the potential to be used for 2-3 times more cycles (depending on dose) than standard 75mg/m2 doxorubicin dosing.”"

So, why not then say about the initial efficacy? They must know.

It is either disappointing and the extra dox has had little effect on the tumour,

or,

it is having a demonstrably beneficial reaction.

If its the 2nd option then by not mentioning the potential efficacy it was a deliberate attempt to walk down the SP to benefit the II's to raise at 50p

If its the first one then I guess there will be some volatility around the mid 50's while II's take a quick gain.

Interesting remarks on the rig.

Certainly if it were a relatively short contract the extra monies in,could be enough to get the appraisal done in which case there would only be a raise after "good" results.

So best case in the circumstances is the above but if its correct then the SP is currently priced for another raise that might not come.

That puts 2.5p back into play which is not far off a 100% rise from here.

Shame I can't underline the "if" and put it in bold and increase the font size....)

Life is never straightforward.....

Scott, given thats seems a fair analysis I think the plan is to appraise what they have and then if its good, then either JV or cash raise at a higher level.

Personally its still high risk but not as high as it was previously. LB has in my eyes earned some slack. She tends to under promise and tires to over deliver.

So right now I'll accept MINIMUM rates of flow per day and when she says a few months I'll wait untill Sept.

But if it is as good as it might be then we might find out in July time with an improved data on flows, size and maybe some hydrogen news too.

Also it strikes me stuff is going on behind the scenes. I happy to be a sucker on this one, but I believe her when she keeps banging on about the importance of the find and the speed they are working at, even at this stage.

Anyway, as long as there is no individual PI over commitment, we shall all be fine one way or the other.

GL.

Good old RSI.....

Cheers Joe

Thanks joe, so is the appraisal well physically bigger or smaller?

Does it take less time to drill or the same as the first one?

I guess given what LB said, that its a no brainer with the rig on site, to do the appraisal well before upping stumps to Tai3?

Joe, whats the diff between the well we have drilled and a further appraisal well?

(Sorry if this is the dumbest question ever...)

Cricket, there does not have to be positive news to move the SP.

All it would take is a belief that a bottom has formed and then people will buy in trying to get as close to there as poss.

If it gets a head of steam up then off we go. Also although it is a while off yet, 3 months or so is not long to Q3, and as time passes so it will increase PI pressure to get on board on the expectation of a jump on a release of good news.

Plus Skips, its only 4 months away.

(Just added a few at 1.50p....)

Pi's are not a priority. Its all about II's.

If you think she "cares" about us you are deluded.

No one held a gun to our collective heads and forced us to buy.

Buy, sell, hold. Do what you want., but don't expect any "help from HE1 or (indeed any company you/we invest in)

I think this is done. they talk about a minimum of .5m a day. The fact that talks are already taking place suggests the final flow rates/commerciality is working from a base low ball park until the official data is in. in the next few months.

Anyway, companies always find novel ways to disappoint but It "feels" like this is the exception.... (imo dyor etc)

Almost there.

It will be interesting to see if it bounces from 1.50p...( I am poised....)

Well, that was a drag... the breakout duly arrived on time but it broke down... oh well... start again....

Now we have a double top formation that has been triggered and the fall has met the predicted drop to around 1.75p. However there is nothing in the chart pattern to suggest it will automatically rebound from here. (odds are it might fall a bit more.)

There is near term support at 1.48 and also a little further back at 170p, so all in all I think there is a chance of a 1.70 floor.

The RSI has unwound with the fall too so that's good.(Only inasmuch it leaves room for a rebound from here as opposed to being in oversold territory)

So there are some grounds for short term SP optimism....

Best guess... (mine) I think it will fall and on balance 1.50p looks like the target before we go up again.

As always its an odds game..just my opinion, dyor etc