Member Info for wyndrum

Ha!

All is possible in the magic of the charts.....

However you rise to a level where you get stopped by the resistance and you fall to the support level... so it does kinda make sense...

Back up to the resistance level.

Keeps trying, I wonder who will get exhausted first.

2.85 and 2.95 are targets but basically a close of 3p and above would be very bullish. GLA

Yes the RSI is just under 20 so over sold.

Interesting day tomorrow.

"Only fools. Would sell now" Really?

What about yesterday or last week?

Well, I think it is. 2.5p is under a lot of pressure.

I liked the "we are reaching out" to other interested parties comment.

Got to be a JV, hasn't it?

(I liked the Potential transformational SP, too) :0))

Its been explained to you by me and others but all my posts are being reported and then deleted. So well done you for stopping anyone else being aware of what is almost certainly going on.

Still, helping others possibly make money is not your prime function on this BB is it?

DG, I think whatever happens to AVCT AS will be financially secure.

I don't doubt for a second his commitment to see the most positive outcome from all the work he and his colleagues have done and are continuing to do.

What concerns me is how he updates the market as to what progress is being achieved. It tends to be ambiguous at best.

And historically that ambiguity has masked ultimately disappointing news.

It will be interesting the reaction here for instance if there is a cash/diluting raise simply because AS laughed and said don't worry about it.

Hopefully the implication many have taken from it that it won't be dilutive will be proven correct.

And further, its not so much the cash raises per se, because that is part and parcel of buying into a loss making company, its the fact that typically PI's get left out or have very little opportunity to join in, so get the dilution without the option of buying in at the raise price initially to protect their investment.

No its not Tim, Its an investment BB.

That means you should be able to discuss all aspects of the company from an investment pov.

That is the point. What the company does as a business, is an (important) RELATED topic.

BFD,

The distinction I am trying to highlight when referring back to the LFT is not about the test itself but about how its progress was reported by AVCT. At no time until it was pulled, did we think it would be pulled. The science was reported to be ground breaking in its accuracy and speed of development. It was to be an improvement on previous antibody tests. (It turned out to have an antibody in its make up.) It did actually get approval to be sold into the EU both for business and retail (and prior to OMICRON), but sales were virtually non-existent.

So this is different. Ok lets hope so, but unfortunately its not all about the science. As a stock its actually more about the money.

Lets take a grim scenario just for the sake of the argument. Say its a big cash raise/dilution and the SP falls to 30p. Then after the dust settles it either goes private or gets bought at 70p . The science still works, the only people who don't benefit are the LTH.

The potential problem with a falling SP is that IF there is a cash raise/dilution it has to be greater amount of shares issued to raise the same amount of money. Before, AS had to come out and squash those rumours.

And then we have the whole DX thing. Is it working as expected or taking a bit longer or is it out performing?

The silence of a more detailed update on this important strand of the business is again based on past performance, creating uncertainty.

Its not Aim, that the problem but the either deliberate or niavity of AVCT not to concern themselves with their investor base.

And finally where are the TR1's for increased shareholding in its current shareholder base if it as all so nailed on?

Ice, people were expecting a data rich release in Dec. They were not expecting Pia still to be going approaching March. No one expected this "quick" trial to not to have started. And all this delay (that I repeat was not expected), then impacts on the finance runway,

The "worry" is this is following exactly the LFT playbook. All the test and releases of results kept telling the market how good the test was, AS kept telling everyone sales were going to be fantastic. Yet the delays regarding TT and the silence that ensued covered bad news.

Hopefully this quiet period will be completely different but how are we or the market to know?

Some people simply reduce their exposure when the expectation does not pan out as time is also a factor that many here are very glib about.

This stock has been in a downtrend for 3 YEARS. It is has broken a major support, This is not short term stuff at all. Further dilution looks most likely.

Its not about a quick buck, its about preservation of capital.

There is nothing historically you can point to in AVCT's history that supports your "nothing to see here" view.

No DTW, things have changed... the Company probably has about £8-£10m less funds.

And unless it has passed you by, companies don't continue if they run out of Money.

And as listed companies are an INVESTMENT where shareholders buy in the expectation of financial gain, they are finely tuned to possible dilution.

So things have changed that are relative to the SP.

I must say I thought after the quick raise He1 Would have updated us on the next part of the plan. Are they going back to Tai to finish off? is the money just for testing and no more drills? if not where is the next drill and when? Is (rainy season stopping things? etc etc.

So its all about timing then?

Well Derby, you will be delighted to know that I have reduced my average to around 13.5p now on Harl, so fingers crossed that picks up but if not I am sure my holdings here will easily take care of that. Patience is key is it not?

(I guess we don't need to refer back to HE1 anymore though?)

As for the chart, it is at a key level as 92p has been the most recent low back in July last year. (there have been various falls into the 90's but not as low as now. (The RSI is not particularly over sold so there is room for more falls.)

Some will buy on this support with a tight stop (90p I imagine), to try and maximise profit and the more risk adverse would want to see a rebound and hold above 102p before committing. (at least, given the downtrend that has been in place for just about 3 years now.)

If 92p goes then the next one would be mid 70's but that isn't much of a support but we are a ways off that yet. (The next one then is in the mid 40's but one would expect that to be on the back of disappointing news and thus far that seems unlikely)

The fundamental news depressing the SP looks to be the uncertain timeline progress impacting the finances of the co.

Charts only reflect current crowd psychology transmitted through the patterns of the buys and sells action. People try to buy and sell in front of news which is why TA can be useful to determine trends before the actual news is released.

Sometimes they are right and sometimes not, it's just an odds game. People as always, are free to do what they like.

Quite right DG, If DTW was referring to me I have never said a Chart target of 40p. I have never referred to AS's house purchase.

I refer to the LFT only to highlight that history of AVCT can be overly optimistic. (Personally I have found it to be mis leading as when just a for instance, AS said they would sell all they could make of the LFT, it led me to believe that the LFT sales would be very large.)

But hey, thats then this is now and AS, even with all the missed time line forecasts and the parallel studies that have started is as always crystal clear, because personally again I feel I have been misled on what he said and what is now happening.

For instance when he said "Data rich", did anyone here think the results from the trial have thus far been data rich? Apparently now he is holding key data back for a more impactful release.

And this is where it gets tricky for me. I think he will release the data at the same time he asks for more cash. But thats just a guess, how do i know? But it fuels this sort of thinking when he continually moves his own goal posts.

Hey ho.

This is always denegrated to be FUD when it is fact. Just as DTW is doing here.

Hardly a guru, just highlighting the unconscious bias that inhabits this BB and how easy it is to believe what you want to hear.

I wouldn't expect you to understand

Andrew, I think that is a bit convenient.

Millionaires is not the point but what rate of increase in percentage terms.

So 6 weeks? too soon, ok, so you can't expect to buy in at the bottom, but roughly where is the Stock going to bottom out and when (ish). And when will it go up (ish)

If it is impossible to answer any of these questions then what other criteria is there to use?

Perhaps the valuation of the company? At £260m what is that valuation based on?

Obviously not metrics based on profits so its the potential of the tech.

But where you say "This is a journey of ground breaking, life changing science. " you miss out the word "potential".

Which is pretty key as it calibrates the actuality of this company.

So all the one-viewed posts here actually completely and utterly re-enforce the "...millionaires in 6 weeks...." idea you want to dispel but actually encourage.

You just can't avoid that this still remains a high risk punt.

The SP has no basis on present metrics, its all about the future trial and tech being very successful.

We and the market have little idea what is actually going on. We don't know if P1a has finished or the 2 dosing parallel trail has started, we don't know if there is a delay or everything is fine.

We don't know if funding is a short term issue or not an issue at all.

We do know that AVCT have a poor record of commercialising their tech into sales and we do know that delays beyond the company's own forecasts are routine. We do know they have cash raises frequently diluting Pi's holdings.

So, I would be not so hard or dismissive of the "get rich quick" brigade because they are encouraged both here and by the BoD with their never ending " inflection curves"

Do your research, wherever that takes you, don't over commit and have a plan for all outcomes that you can envisage.

"I think it is a bad idea, for all the reasons DTW has outlined, as it will never be enough to keep the mob at bay.

AS should not capitulate to the bedwetters, who are few in number, low in understanding of the science (and its IP implications) and self-serving in their criticisms of AS and his team."

That would be perfectly fine and reasonable had AVCT and AS in particular, not got such a dismal track record for giving actually quite explicit forecasts and then not fulfilling them.

I would ask reasonably, in the middle of Feb, did anyone here expect P1a still to be going? Did anyone here think that we would be well into the short, 2 weekly dose trial? And if so why was that? Was it possibly due to RNS's and AS interviews that gave, at least that impression?

So are we all as thick as mince,or perhaps the coms from AVCt is worse than appalling but borders on misleading?