Member Info for wyndrum

They are just trying to make an orderly market in a chaotic environment.

Its always going to have wild swings given the highly irrational, emotional state of most of the the "investors" here

"This hit 1.70 this morning and then back to 1.20, sellers are waiting for you to buy, once 1.60 to sell, then dump will start" right up until it doesn't.

Levels get tested all the time. Predicting the out come is impossible. It just comes down to what are the odds of the 2 outcomes and then plumping for the one most likely.

Jolly good, now lets see if it holds.....

1.40 has been a sticking point all day.... lets see what happens....

Its the "unexpected" hydrogen element that adds to the mix and helps support the commerciality of the find.

Most intriguing...

Hi pat,

I sold half when it 11 bagged at 2.2p as (according to my methodology the RSI would have show n

very over bought at the end of the day had it maintained those heights). It would have been sooner but took off this morning, so I waited a bit longer and got lucky.

Then on the day chart (One Minute) which I don't tend to use, it fell to 16 on the RSI showing very oversold so bought back in at 1.31p.

So its some roller coaster. The key is to remain emotionally detached and remember you are only doing this to make money so when you make money don't get emotionally wrapped up with Greed and expect too much, and take some profit as that's the name of the game.

You always get wild/big swings on big risers like this. Its impossible to discern the overall direction until it finds a level and (relatively) settles down.

Who would be a MM trying to make an orderly market......

I know this will get lost here within 20 seconds but ...hmmmm.... :0)

Having spent the last 20 odd years trading rather than LTH (20 years ish prior to that also), it seems to me every BB I visit meets with a fair degree of hostility from the majority who post.

There seems to be misconceptions by the anti -trader brigade.

The first one is that traders apparently only ever sell. The SP falls ...well, that the fault of traders... (but you can't sell what you have not bought first.)

No rise in the SP is ever attributed to traders getting on board at low levels and through demand, forcing the SP up. (or also very popular, the SP is rising because the Traders who apparently shorted (made the wrong decision) have to buy back and limit their losses.)

There is never any proof of any of these routine statements by those that make them, that those circumstances have actually occurred.

The (often spiteful) bias of these posts is I presume, some sort of "I told you so" psychology, whereby the (in small caps like this), LTH who have endured a long holding and are more than likely sitting on a loss and "wasted" years of potential gains elsewhere, look for blame to be apportioned rather than accept their own investment returns shortcomings.

(FWIW, Most traders lose money because they are not remotely disciplined enough emotionally to cut losses early when the trade does not work out, or equally, they have no plan of when to buy or when to sell in the first place

But the rewards can be very good.

One example. I took out a £1000 from a stock I think could 10 bag (AVCT) over the next 6-12 months. I have held this stock on a long term basis because of its potential to be bought out, which can happen at any time. However the latest (good) results say the next potential good set of results will be in the summer. I still have a substantial holding in there so the £1000 was relatively small beer to put into HE1 at .21p My risk was 100% wipe out but if a good drill result, then 2p ish looked very dooable.

Now for the "what ifs".

I sold the £1000 AVCT at 109. If HE1 goes to 2.1p I can put £10k back into AVCT (currently its 101p).

Lets say I get back in for easy maths at 100p and it in 6 months it gets bought out at 1000 per share (which gives it a market cap of £3b which in the world of big Pharma buy outs is very, very possible)

If AVCT 10 bags my original £1000 left in AVCT would be worth £10,000, but if my £1000 in He1 turns into £10k, then goes back into AVCT it turns into £100k

Thats the point of trading.

Some think its a higher risk (maybe, maybe not), but the returns can be a lot more than just long term buy and hold.

As always, each to his own. GLA

Well.... the RSi was 16 which was very oversold which I mentioned at the time but with tongue very much in cheek because this SP was based on at the time a binary outcome on a fundamental basis.

So we are back in the game.

The good chart news is that after 2 days of very strong rises the RSI is only 49.31 so plenty of room for more rises before looking at a retrace of any note.

I am not a day trader so i am looking further than intraday moves.

(I would expect fairly wild swings and volatility as it is a always a by product of sharp moves.)

Plenty take profit, plenty buy on the dips and so it goes.

I honestly don't know how to value HE1 but at a £100m market cap we are looking at 3p per share which I find about as optimistically high as it can go in the relative short term.

Certainly if the tests are good/great that a buy out around that figure seems fair.

So maybe a 5 bagger from here in the next 3 -6 months.

But as say that is not my forte.

Chart wise, to be a purist and there is no other way to read charts imo, and joking aside, in hindsight when you look at the chart at a 16 RSI level it was a screaming buy (or to be less hyperbolic, the odds of a rise were very high,_ and so it has proved with the likelyhood of more to come.

GLA

Just my opinion dyor etc etc.

Hey Joe, maybe when they were sourcing the last bit of kit they also bought other spares/equipment based on how the drill performed when it was working previously?

Well, i dipped the smallest toe in (again) last night.....

Watched the interview and all I got out of it is that the drill is actually taking place and if memory serves this is meant to be a shallower drill. So, (and using Joe's experience as a guide) we might/expect to hear something on Monday. I much prefer short term to long term :0))

And although the RSI is still saying way oversold I am not using that as a comfort blanket on this one as this could easily be the "exception that proves the rule"

Anyway, a fool and his money and all that....

I have the right to exercise my warrants at 2.85p which at this rate I will do...fingers crossed.

Well, it needed to retrace from a very overbought position on the high, so I have bought some now to see what happens. GLA.

Stokey, I am trying to highlight that there is an unquantifiable risk currently on the long term viability of HARL in its current form.

If it went bust and if the new owners were for instance BAE or BAB, then (just for the sake of argument), then its not unreasonable that the "new"Harl would take over existing orders (if they wanted to) subject of course to the persons who placed the order with Harl, agreeing.

My point is that share holder risk is not the same as company risk.

Companies get bought out of administration regularly, and some are even floated again but that does not help the original shareholders who will have lost everything.

As I say, it was just to highlight that I do not believe for an instant that there is any form of Market Maker manipulation of the SP over the last 9 months to keep it in a trading range that just so happens to coincide with the market waiting for the finance deal to be announced/revealed.

Stokey, I am playing Devil's advocate but....

"Through a combination of cash currently held on the balance sheet and expected cash flows in 2024 generated from existing contracts, the Directors consider that the Company has sufficient funds to meet its working capital requirements until the new loan facility is completed."

"....Expected..... " now, given their record of missed deadlines and profit warnings it is not writ in stone. And that word "expected" means if it did not happen, well then that was unexpected... so what?

What is the track record of deadlines being met?

The latest revenue has been downgraded by 20+% to suit accounting rules. What does that mean? That Harl have been over stating revenue? And if so was it deliberate or incompetent? Doesn't that change in accounting mean that has an effect on cashflow expectations?

As i say I agree, i don't think they will go bust either but I think its a possibility and higher than 1%, in other words I am not 99% sure they won't go bust.

As for the govt, the new owners would take over and fulfil the contract. This is about shareholder risk, not about Harl the company per se.

FG, I think when the news comes through of a more secure financial back drop the shares will rerate to the upside, but the thing is, you (me, any of us), don't know who the buyers and sellers of the stock are. Is it one entity? or are the shares batched up into blocks to reduce cost and maintain and make a steady market in the stock? (Which is the actual job of the MM's).

the SP rocketed on the back of the Govt deal. however since then loan deadlines and orders have missed targets set by Harl.

The market hates uncertainty because they don't want to lose money, EVER.

They want 99% sure fire things. They thought they had it when the deal was announced but now they have doubts, so they either take their money out or hold but don't add until the risk profile is more favourable.

Its only PI's (with our lack of knowledge and experience) that think this game is a gamble and that AIM is a casino. The big players do not.

The odds have to be overwhelmingly stacked in their favour before they place their bets.

(imo, dyor etc)

Lets talk this through.

MM's take in orders to buy and sell the stock and match them up with a bit of a spread to make their money.

On small cap stocks they will hold very little if any stock at any given time due to the unpredictability of the news flow.

If we look at Harl, they are close to bankruptcy with their £200m loan being unsupportable on current cash flow.

However there is talk that a new loan will replace the old one at advantageous terms and remove this potential imminent threat.

Now given this replacement loan is about 12 months overdue, the risk of it not happening in time, is greater than ever.

Why would the MM's take that risk? Why would the MM's build up so much stock in a company that does not keep its word and has just issued a profits warning? (again)

As an MM you would not hold any stock in case one morning an RNS turns up with in this case very bad news, instead of the expected good.

To keep the price down over the last what? 9-10 months, every sell below 16p has been bought and held by the MM's. Therefore every buyer is only being allowed to buy below 16p making the MM's hardly any money for the risk of holding the stock. But if the MM's are selling (and they are because I have bought some over the last 9 months), how are they keeping the price artificially down?

It all the buyers think the SP will rise and the current holders think likewise and won't sell, where are all these sellers coming from? Where are the MM's getting the stock from?

If the SP is so low that it is a screaming buy then demand will be overwhelming and the price will have to rise. How do the MM's in that case with no sellers, keep the price down?

There may be a bit of price manipulation at particular pinch points but they tend to be short lived and only for MM's gauge market reaction to a higher or lower price. So, at 16p they might push it to 17p to buy to see if the demand is there to buy. If it isn't they know to lower the price.

(And not for anything else what you are saying that is taking place is illegal.)

However, the reality is that this is simply and quite commonly (like so many stocks) in a trading range and it will take concrete news to support the rumours/expectations to break it.

Just my opinion dyor etc

FG, well, as its (another) quiet day. the reason most migrants come here are either for economic reasons or genuine asylum.

It would be a bit rum to run from your country for fear of death or persecution and be drafted into the navy to be put potentially into a war against perhaps your own kith and kin. What price loyalty then?

Lets assume they fail these skill tests etc, how do you deport them then?

A big problem is the speed of processing the applications and then if they fail, where do you send them if you don't know where they came from or the country in question won't take them?

Also it would be a great way countries unsympathetic to the UK to send over spies/saboteurs to get them into our armed forces and create havoc under your scheme.

And at what cost?