Member Info for wyndrum

here's my back-of-a-*** packet/guess/assumption/wishful thinking.

previously, (in a galaxy far, far away).. when the sp was around 5p-6p before this last...ahem.. dilution.... i though that 100p a share as a round figure was too high because of all the extra shares in issue that had occurred since the original drill and that may 40-50p was possible on a very successful discovery, so maybe a 10 bagger (ish) at best/most optimistic.

so now we have double the shares (give or take) then i should halve the (in my world) best case sp appreciation to 25p

but to get to 25p it would have to be a 100 bagger so really this dilution and opportunity is very, very good news...

(and yes i have drunk too much over the last few days :0))

RSI 15.... I wouldn't bet the farm but this is technically vey over sold.

Statistically the odds are good of a rise....

ATB

Well, I don't know but seeing as its below the RI price its difficult to see how anyone has got out with a profit.

If it is being shorted then that is perhaps perversely very good news.

for anyone long He1 need to find commercial helium, if they don't its game over.

If they do, then those shorters have to clear their position PDQ, so given a positive rns would bring in new buyers combined with the shorters having to buy with no current long shareholder selling...then i think the SP would explode. (relatively speaking of course)

so, all that has to happen is..... Happy Cristmas everyone, and you never know.... maybe, just maybe...

NB,

In response as to does this BB influence the SP, It is very unlikely and imo does not.

Rumours can take hold but the SP tends to move before anyone here knows about it, and then there is a reaction fron posters. (is it us etc etc)

Also the vast majority here are likely to be stock holders so very few will be shorters or have the ability to short in any great amounts.

This BB, if you remove the back & forth of insults and responses, is overwhelmingly positive, (as you would expect) and yet the SP is where it is, so if this BB, does affect the SP it should be about 750p at a minimum.

Also fwiw, I think by and large these BB's and certainly this one, don't really help the investor. There are some nuggetts that might or do get thrown up but 99% of the time it is just opinion and not very well thought through at that.

But the negative points are too much ramping may get more people to buy more stock and be over committed and the negative aspect may make some sell when there was no need to.

That pull on the emotions however tends just to highlight that the investor who is affected by either of these 2 extremes, is probably over committed and the Fear & Greed tap dance causes the uncertainty.

If an investor has such a disposition these BB's are the worst place to come.

Only ever invest want you can comfortably afford to lose and that way you don't get caught up in the worry and anxiety that over committing produces. It really is not worth it.

Getting rich quick is hard and requires a lot of luck. Getting rich slowly is much, much easier.

BigPurps, I don't care.

Again, nice line in condescension to make you feel superior. Well done you.

Ice, all that is true, accept it could be coincidence?

(I am not saying it is. But cause and effect and all that.)

The fact is we do not know what is going on behind the scenes. Its not open, the "research" is limited to not having the full picture. Which is fine, its all we have got. I just don't have you degree of faith or confidense in it.

Don, carry on with your assumptive condescending tone.

Why you cannot accept your own potential frailty in investment is quite something.

You really, really, think that Point, Novartis, et al, you name any senior board member of all the tweets and linkedin "likes", the bailly giffords, the specialists analysts, whos' very careers depend on unearthing potential gems like this don't know as much as you and Ice? Are you really, that conceited?

Christ, even the Telegram group get personal meetings with AS rather than you and the rest. Even though some dissed their posts as false, such is the cult here.

But its only the few here that know what they are talking about, even though the SP has been 280p should at least make even you with your closed mind realise the market is quite capable of propelling this share to nearly triple the level it is now. But yeah.... we all know nothing as the SP languishes at the same price as the start of the trial.

Your assumption Ice, is that you know more valuing companies in this sector and AVCT in particular than the market.

You will say this doesn't count but it is in fact similar.

ADV was an oil exploration company. (How high risk could it be!)

Except they only bought licences from oil companies that had already "exhausted" the field years and sometimes decades previously. Now, with new technology it was possible to extract oil from what was then, uncommercially viable.

So, not like any other oil exploration company after all, they were drilling into known oil fields with oil still left in them but now it would be using todays methods to be commercially viable again.

What could go wrong.?

Certainly from the BB members nothing, they shouted that it should never, ever be compared with a oil exploration company. This was GUARANTEED to be a 10 bagger. The oil was there for goodness sake. That was a fact.

The market had completely overlooked this one and had no idea how smart the BOD were

The CEO even, when interviewed while they were drilling, that he had the champagne on ice so sure was he of success.

So nothing like AVCT except this BB is identical in its attitude. We don't know the full picture. We are carefully drip fed info from the BOD and scripted interviews with VOX

And I can't remember if you were here over the LFT period, but did you believe then that nothing could stop AVCT's test?

I think the risk reward is good here, but I am not starry-eyed about it because for all my, and others, research here, we don't know the half of whats going on behind the scenes. Some here just like to think they do

I said specifically that companies like AVCT, fail with new treatments rather than succeed.

If the company is worth conservatively £5b (because it already works, can't fail, its fantastic etc etc) is it priced 15 times less?

The market has read the RNS, has watched the interviews and has followed this company since it got the LFT spotlight shon on it.

I am not remotely tetchy, I am posing questions that the answers are not available yet to demonstrate the other side of the coin that most here never want to address.

It is in fact still early days after a (very) promising start. That's the way I see it, and I think given the valuation of the company, so does the market.

Ice, I know, everyone knows, the platform works, that was known at the end cohort one.

Its about Efficacy. The safety and tolerability was simply the very most basic hurdle that any knew treatment has to clear.

What if this extends life by 6-12 months but what if it makes little difference to quality of life. (yes the side effects could be vastly reduced), but if the person, remains bed ridden, or opens itself to perhaps further surgery and more hospitalisation, then will the cost to the end user (the funder of the treatment) be acceptable?

I am not saying any of this will come to pass but its this knee jerk "its going to be fantastic on what we already know", assumption that to me there is simply no where near enough evidence to justify these claims.

So far but and so good. But where is the detailed data of the tumour shrinkage? And why only one patient? What are the side effects? How much variation is there on side effects between patients so far?

Does any of this matter at this stage of the trial?

Its all about now, the next hurdle. This is the one, the efficacy, that will prove how well it works, and from there maybe, just maybe, some sort of valuation will be possible.

To me all we have done is a built a new engine for a car. We have just filled the petrol tank, because without the fuel its not going anywhere, then the next step was to push the start button and see if it fires up. So far so good, now its time to put it on track and see how well it goes. (If it doesn't perform , the success of the first 2 steps don't really matter do they?)

Gmcc, I have done really well out of this trading it. It has allowed me to be patient for the longer term.

Not so much recently as its stuck in a trading range so patience has been the key.

I am not bothered about the company, how can I be, I have no influence over it and cannot profit it from it. The SP is the only part of it that allows an opportunity to try and make some money but this has turned out to be a longer tterm hold than I originally expected.

I just think the generally blinkered view here and the assumptions made are a microcosm and great insight into the psychological profile of PI's. The Fear and Greed is demonstrated on a daily basis is quite something to behold, and as they say, every day is a school day.

Ice, I am not saying AVCT won't be able to carry on funding their research. I am highlighting that we don't know how or when it will be done, we don't know what effect it will have on the SP.

If everybody wants to be all over this then why has the SP the same value over the last 3 years, almost to the penny?

The assumption you are making is that this will succeed against (in fact) all the odds. I think it will too but I am acutely aware that we are starting to get to money shot now.

That means there is less time to get out if there would be bad news, That concentrates a lot of minds of people who are over committed.

Its all about risk reward, but talking constantly about the potential reward and decrying any talk of the risk is ridiculous, but generally sums this BB up quite well.

Take off your rose tinted Don, would you?

Those questions are currently unanswerable! Thats was the point!

You can't paint a picture of "what if's" that this will be ground breaking, this will be bought out for billions, this will be the next Pfizer, etc etc when and at the same time rubbish my post saying exactly what the facts are from an investor coming into this stock today .

ALL CEO's ARE ECONOMICAL WITH THE TRUTH.

Avct is no different.

Why hasn't there been a Peer review or even one projected?

This remains a high risk/high reward stock.

We all know this. To constantly berate anyone who highlights the risk does no one a service here.

It is only by weighing up the risks can anyone hope to make a reasoned decision.

IMO, there are too many here hopelessly over committed that can't even take the psychological pain of the risks being highlighted on a BB, that makes no difference to the company, SP or eventual outcome.

This BB is more of a cult than an investment BB where different opinions can be aired.

You should think about that.

The only people who are prepared to either criticise the company or look at potential risk are again constantly, personally insulted.

You should think about that too.

Remember my personal journey here started with foul abuse because I dared to say that the LFT market window was closing very quickly and AVCT were taking too long to benefit from it. Being right is ridiculed here if it does not fit in with the over committed.

But if you are Sujood, Myles, RAH, Hurst who have never been right, they carry on posting here to generally much applause but have only ever been wrong.

Think about as well.

I am sorry if this is too much to ask, all this thinking. But maybe you could just tone down the patronising insults when you are arguing from a position of assumptions.

Trouble is Don you are imo very closed minded about this.

The FACTS are that this type of company has a high failure rate.

The company does not have enough funds to get this to market or likely even keep the lights on over the next 12 months.

AS has a poor record of what he says as to what happens.

This stock is full of potential just like so may currently in trial.

When is this coming to market?

What will be the profit margin?

How will the company fund itself?

Without this any valuation is simply guess work.

Investments are meant to produce a return. the SP, if you have been a LTH have not produced anything in years other than dilution and unfulfilled promises. There is no dividend to allow Investors to be patient. The whole point of buying investments is for the money you put in work for you.

Will it come good? maybe, hope so, but there still remains too many variables and unknowns for the investor to have any idea on what their return might be

That's not FUD, that's FACT

Paul, I agree in part with your overall sentiment, but no one forced you to buy this stock.

It was always a very high risk "investment". It was always win or lose, there was no middle ground. There have been countless opportunities to get out and minimise losses and ultimately the golden rule on all stocks is NEVER to buy more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

The thing is I would bet every single buyer here over the years has known that and yet it never stopped some of them over committing.

Thats the question the ones in pain should be asking themselves about. Why?

Just thrown in a few quid at a buy price of .25p. They will now drill, (again) so back to square one, (Binary play. And If i thought it was worth a punt then, the logic says its worth a punt now.)

ATB

Don, I would not "park it" as its the only and (recent) experience the market has of AVCT talking and delivering.

If AVCT did not understand the testing market then they should not have said it had a commercial life of 2-5 years.

AVCT would say things like potential bams and elisa sales and updates etc and then it went deadly silent for months. They could have said they were not getting any sales but we worked out what the silence meant for ourselves or at least i did. (and likewise I figured out the likely hood of a short window on the LFT market as soon as vaccines were being rushed through in Nov.)

AVCT developed a test in the April within 1 month of the virus being recognised. They issued a RI almost immediately on the back of it and years later produced a test that nobody bought either in europe or globally when all the regulatory hurdles had been overcome. (prior to Omicron).

Irt was more expensive and had less ease of use than the competitors.

And if the competitors were such lousy tests how come we all survived? Either the virus was not that deadly or the tests were in fact perfectly good enough to help stem the contaigon?

So I agree that was then and this is now. Its not the test I care about. Its what was said and was delivered. And for all the protestations here, the comms has been very similar.

It is getting very close to the time to show us the money

I'm not sure about almost any of that that JT.

It wasn't "that deadly" to the general population, (It was quite specific). It was forecasted (as with other viruses) to become less harmful as it mutated. How much the govt did to screw british companies is at least debateable.

Whether the statement made by the company were justifiable or not, not one of their statements/forecasts came true in term of sales, revenue and/or speed of delivery. (And lets not whitewash the past with the "silence" when these thigs did not come to pass, leaving investors to guess what was going on (NDA anyone?)

I would have expected with their experience of the market, when AVCT said there is a commercial market for the next 2-5 years , would have been accurate.

Commercially it seemed once vaccines were on the move that the market was over. And also it would have bankrupted the world, (which you could argue as already happened), had we all to continually buy tests and quarantine for 10 days at time.

Thats the current legacy. Lets hope when we look back it was just a distraction and nothing else.

Let me help al hough almost no one cares apart from bitl and a few others but

20/12/2020 SP 110p

20/12/2021 SP 104p

20/12/2022 SP 111p

20/12/2023 SP 114p

Of course there has some dilution and cash raises along the way....