Member Info for wyndrum

Ha ha, dream on pedro...

Thanks for the concern Ice, but I have people to look after my car as it happens. :0))

LDA,

"It is OK to look for negatives on an investment"

Its more than ok, it is essential, imo.

Obviously having bought the stock in the first place the investor is expecting SP appreciation. That is a given.

What should always be at the forefront of an investors mind is, is the story changing, is there new info that might be underminding the initial reason for purchase?

Its like having a car, you don't buy it and then forget about it, you keep an eye on the tyres, the oil, the warning lights, to react in a timely fashion on whatever expected and unexpected events occur.

"Polite reminder, please don't feed the sealion. It inevitably results in a never ending loop of very boring essays"

Really, do you not read what you post? Pot black and kettle does not come near to it (393 posts in the last 30 days. it was 461 last week!)

Where is the FUD!

you are just such a knee-jerk merchant.

You all keep telling me to leave, well if none of you are interested in the day-to-day ups and downs and are all in for the long term (however long that it is), and don't care about what happens in the interim, why don't you all leave instead?

JT, I know they are separate events but they are not unrelated. The whole point of the trial(s) is to sell the tech!

They knew the data was very positive, they have known forever, that they would need more personnel to help commercialise it. Why not bring both RNS's out on the same day?

Maybe they just missed a trick? But it has had little effect on the SP today.

It just seems to me, to be a continuation of AVCT not being concerned about their shareholders. (Well, their PI shareholders to be more precise)

CJ,

Do you think that this job offer could not have coincided with the results last week?

I just think it could have been co-ordinated. Maybe no one at AVCT cares less, and they never even thought about it.

But I don't think the experienced Management at AVCt would have missed this trick. Which makes me think it was deliberate. (I am not sure it is deluded though. I think you just like to be feel superior by being so patronising as so many here seem to do).

Anyway, it is what it is.

Perhaps stop the silly insults and answer the question, or... if you are not interested, then don't post.

(Somewhat hypocritical to bring up the season of goodwill which my post was not related to, and then be insulting.)

So what Clive, you jumped for joy when you saw 25p knocked off the SP value on the back of good news?

What do you think the SP reaction would have been if this had been announced at the same time? (I know you can't know, I am just asking what you think).

Am I alone thinking the timing is odd?

Don't get me wrong I think this is a positive step and now it looks to confirms AVCT's accelerated approach to market. (Yeh!)

But.. why wasn't this released at the same time as the data results? (2 separate RNS's but they would have told stronger story.)

I don't automatically assume that share drops or rises are manipulated, but I think this one was and from AVCT themselves.

I'm not sure many here that cite trading methods and traders in general, know very much about it at all. Certainly most of the comments here suggest that.

Don's comment:

"I've said it before, ignore unsubstantiated SP falls and unsubstantiated SP increases and keep focussed on the science, which, after last week can only be described as incredible."

When do you know if its unsubstantiated or not? Just because you (the individual) are unaware of why a sharp movement has occurred, does not mean there is not a (fundamental) reason.

And whatever is going on today, its hardly a rebound from 136p is it?

Anyway, I imagine some have bought in on the basis that the fall/correction/sell off/traders stops/Mkt Manipulation/ manipulated buy, take your pick , has finished.

Baffy, although you may have posted in good faith there was no proof that this is what AS said. If others bought on the basis of your post and it was not true then a potential crime has been committed of fraud.

So, no dark forces here that I see, but I agree this BB is not much help as an investment tool.

Yeboa, I think you will find there are quite a few "sadder" posters here than me who post on this BB.

The fact you said what you did somewhat contradicts your post

It becomes a pretty pointless (and somewhat dumb), task to filter someone and then continually comment on their posts when you supposedly don't know what they even said.. (Plus Tim has responded directly recently which meant he had to have read what I posted.)

Don't be so mardy Tim, there are more important things in life than an investment and this BB.

Merry Christmas

Code, again the narrative here gets changed after the facts.

Prior to results everyone here thought they would be between really very good to blow the doors off. Apart from Viking no one else was predicting a SP flat pancake were they? or did I miss that?

And where did the expectation come from, with up tics in commercial interest and laughing off funding with us all not to worry.

This laughable "traders waiting for 100p " malarky. What are you talking about? that is just an invention to allay any further thought process that there MIGHT be something else behind the fall.

(In case you haven't noticed us traders have had lots of opportunities to get in at 100p. its this lazy, every time there is a drop in the SP its manipulated through traders and nothing, absolutely nothing else, stuff that is well, like I say lazy thinking.

the 15% drop in a day is not normal, it not unheard but it is a big move in a day but its the co-incidence of good results released that are ringing the warning bells with me.

If its indisputable that the platform works what on earth makes you think a few traders could knock that much off the value of the company? Where were the buyers snapping their arms off to buy the shares?

So we have almost everyone here, all on twitter, the telegram group with their inside track with AVCT, all saying its great and the skys the limit and the SP falls from a mid, no nothing level stuck in a trading range rut. It was hardly pushiung all time highs was it?

Anyway, it did not make sense to me.

More fool me hoping I might get any out of the box thinking here.

Good luck

But thats the thing Tim, you don't or should not be, so black and white in your refusal to look at the reality.

The data looks excellent to the layman at least. Its another hurdle in the process cleared. Its 2 years in, all is good and its 6-12 months away from more data which should be the last hurdle i as its about efficacy. So why has the SP fallen 15% since the update and is in the lower half of a 2 year trading range as it starts to draw to its conclusion?

It could be market gyration.

That is defo a possibility.

Data is not as good as we think?

Possibly, as no peer review has happened yet to confirm AVCT results. None of this to date really matters as its all about efficacy?

No clear route or timeline to market?

Yes, thats a deffo, although timelines are being suggested now but as you were all quick to point out, these things overrun.

Company has not sufficient cash to get this to market?

Well, that would seem a no brainer but how the funding will be raised and when and how much is not clear.

I can't of the top of my head why else there would be such a sharp contraction on a good data release.

(I think the market expected further remarks about the apparent outside interest in the tech and when it failed to materialise, marked it down as the potential other causes of SP drag i mention above, were reconsidered.)

To my critics which are all broadly saying the same thing ie I don't know anything and its all made up guesses and that these things never run to time etc.

Well, so are your views. If it good for the goose and all that. You don't know jack either. (Just read some of the responses to my asking why has the SP fallen 15% since the update and is the same price when the trial started over 2 years ago, for proof of wishful thinking).

Secondly I could take the "these things never run to time" argument, if every time AS stated a timeline EVERYONE here shouted out, "ignore it because...these things never run to time" (and you know what, if you did, then you would realise that there then is not enough money to see it through which means there has to be another cash raise of some sort. its a straight forward uncontentious logical conclusion if one makes the assumption that these projects over run.

But thats never happened.

So I am an idiot who knows nothing, yet AS gives over optimistic timelines ALL THE TIME, (so never seems to learn by his experience,) yet he (with this false info you always swallow) should not be doubted?

NFT, did AS know what he was doing when he said AVCT were quickly going to bring to market an omicron LFT?

What happened to the saliva LFT? How have Bam sales been? How have Elisa sales been?

When were you aware the the USP of the LFT test was a non-antibody approach but then found out there was an antibody in the test.?

What happened to all the Moderna etc tie ups? Do you think now, today, that deals were being inked on lft sales when he said they were.

So let the company do the talking... what are they saying exactly and based on whats gone on before do you really trust them? Any peer reviews yet?

The fact that you believe AS (or any CEO of a loss making company) that dismisses future funding into the long grass is about as niave as it is possible to be. Its breath taking if you really, genuinely believe that.

To date this company has a poor track record on bring their tech to a commercial conclusion. AS has a poor record of being straight when interviewed.

So, if the conclusion is, small loss making bio-pharma's are very high risk, then thats great, we are all on the same page.

But if you are going to acknowledge the high-risk element of this as an "investment" (which it isn't..it's an absolute punt for the company to win out against the odds), then we should be free to discuss the greater chance of failure than success, esp. given AVCT's track record to date. (which has been one of missed timelines and failure)

I can't make money out of AVCT (and neither can you. I can only make money by buying the shares at one price and selling higher later. The SP is not the same as the company.

as an example in an extremis, they could go bust, Shareholders receive nothing, tech bought out by a private company, tech goes on to be worth billions. Well done Avacta, not so good for the one time shareho

Apre, its not semantics to have a nuanced view on complex matters when info is ambiguous and incomplete.

No one here has any problem with dot-joining when the picture revealed is £200 per share ex china. No one gets bored with that, no one seems to care it never comes true, and no one cares if its rampy. but any, any question on why can this company be only 110p a share is spreading FUD. It is so juvenile to try and shut up others just because you don't like their views. If it angers you so much then don't come to a forum where different view are encouraged to be discussed.

The rebuttals to my thoughts have not so far,caused me to re-evaluate my initial reaction of the SP to the results.

Yes, I don't trust what AS says , inasmuch as I don't know when he is exaggerating or not.

However, the results continue to impress but the timeline does not.

Here is my opinion although I would like to say "fact."

There was an RNS on the 11/08/2021: "The first patient has received their first dose of AVA6000 at The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust. The Phase I study is being initiated across a small group of leading UK cancer centres with an established reputation for early cancer clinical research in the Phase I setting. The dose escalation phase is anticipated to complete by Q2 2022 followed by completion of the dose expansion phase by Q2 2023."

I don't think there was ever a cat in hells chance that that timeline was likely and that AVCT knew that. because had they said it was end of 2024, then the market would have realised there was enough money to get them through to that date.

Therefore this constant vagueness over timelines has to be introduced to allow at least PI's to think all is ok while the smarter money waits for the LAST cash raise to take place. That's when they will get on board. And thats when the Sp will move.

You call it FUD? I call it Bleeding' obvious. But you in your wisdom, don't even want it to be discussed. do you?

So I continue to keep money aside for a cash raise in case us PI's get an opportunity to benefit. But I care less and less for the "official" utterances of AS as I can't trust that he is being straight forward with his replies.

Chris,

your argument to BP buying the stock is that an influx of immediate buying would cause the SP to rise too quickly for them to get value.(10-15m shares you mentioned).

I would counter that they could have bought the 3m or so every quarter reasonably discretely and pretty much attain what you say would be a chunk of stock But they haven't, indeed looking at the TR1's no one seems to be building a stake that I am aware of. And further the daily turnover of the stock would suggest it would be fairly easy to get stock over a few months above the levels you mention.

I know this is painful for some, but I am putting forward an idea as to why maybe the SP cannot seem to get going.

The reasons that are put to counter it are more fanciful than mine and all the positives cited don't address why the SP fell by 15% on the update.

Anyway, maybe Monday it will jump by 20% and looking back, it will just have been the gyrations of the market at play.