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Rather than howling at the moon, it makes more sense to figure out why this initial reaction is so muted.

Clearly at 135p the market assumed all the previous exhortations would be confirmed. Nothing in the RNS went further.

Therefore no reason for SP appreciation , ergo sellers arrived.

The Q&A session might help, as might the Paul Hill scripted interview session too.

The market was clearly hoping for a bit more on the "up-tic in commercial interest."

So money is now, yet again, the issue.

Yeah I have loads of failures, but they never cripple me as I never over commit, and I get out as soon as I realise the bet is going wrong.

I work with stops you see to protect my capital and only spend a small amount on the punts whereby stops can get blown away.

(My biggest holding is GLEN, Followed by BAE (in case your wondering.) Long term, good barriers to entry and good dividends.

Trading this one though as paid for all the other risky ones and then some, so no need to worry about me.

Yeah stangy, its all fact what I post. saying "(imo)" obviously just confirms my opinion that you can't understand what you read... oh well.....

I can always find time to show up your ignorance.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/15/warren-buffetts-failures-15-investing-mistakes-he-regrets.html

You simply can't think for yourself can you?

That business model was when the west dominated the globe and there was little or no competition.

His "secret" was patience and it worked very well. Right plan, right time.

Today, not so much. completely different world.

Still, you keeping looking back but don't be surprised if you walk into a lamp post.

I think Dave, that is the rub:

I don't see (and have never seen) that any SP reflects the "value" of the company.

This is why i always separate the 2.

The SP is determined by buyers and sellers and changes, mostly day to day.

The SP could be 10 times what it is now but it still wont reflect its "value" as the buyers and sellers are looking forward, not statically at what is happening today.

That's what in fact makes the market and its not glib. Its different people judging what the future holds, if enough agree its going to be good the SP rises (and vica versa.)

So ultimately whether its short term or long, the "value" of the company as represented through its market cap, is simply a GUESS towards what the future MIGHT bring.

In fact when you use "value" metrics the investor is looking backwards to the last RNS and business update so its out of date before you start.

This is why I find it flawed as a model for investment returns. Ultimately LTB&H only (sometimes) works if the business is sound and its in an expanding market with perhaps good barriers to entry and inflation over the long term, helping things along.

None of this applies yet to AVCT. Its always been a punt to see if they would actually get their tech accepted.

Currently AVCT is very over valued as it has limited annual income and does not reflect the multi million mkt cap. but it is undervalued if the tech is successful and taken up....

Which way will it go? Who knows, Many here have been or are in, other similar stocks like AGL, SYN, ODX, RUA, INTGUMEN, and all those BB's had their own posters saying everyday how great the products were/are, and how wrong it was for anyone to ever say anything contrary to that, as this one was THE one.

Exactly the same here, (surprise, surprise), but the "market" is a bit more sanguine then most of us and perhaps more, (much more) rational than some give it credit for.

Strangy, perhaps you need to learn to read?

What fence sitting? I was exploring reasons why, 2 trading sessions away from potential block busting news the SP has been in decline just about all week.

If you had already come to that conclusion then great. But point to the post where you explore this. If fact point me to any post you makes with any attempt at analysis behind it.

The data release regarding safety and tolerability will not move the dial. That's already well known and appreciated and is simply the first and necessary step to get to the money shot which is efficacy.

The "game changer" is efficacy and that the data already collected show demonstrable, documented results proving that has ALREADY emerged AHEAD of the expected schedule.

what is holding the SP back? who would sell now after all this time? Why has the SP fallen since the announcement of the results over the last few trading sessions?

MY experience says just because it looks bizarre only means I haven't figured it out and that it is a reflection of my poor analytical skills rather than the market behaving irrationally.

The 2 obvious reasons (imo) could be, the results won't dwell or be at this stage, over whelming on the efficacy side and if that is so, it just means more time will be needed to prove this and that pushes back commercialisation so there is no rush to buy the stock right now.

Or, the old chestnut of funding is holding off the big buyers at present. The counter argument to that is AS said it wasn't needed but anyone who follows any stock on loss-making companies, knows they all say that and therefore that statement is simply ignored by the market as worthless. On paper with known cash burn it would seem money will be needed relatively soon. (For instance I still have no idea if we are turning a profit or a loss with the DX division on a day-to-day basis.)

So either the efficacy data will not take center stage and in that case its a bit of a no nothing update inasmuch we know its safe and tolerable, or money is now the issue (again). Or its a bit of both.

If the efficacy data is good, money in the relative short term can still be an issue but it makes a RI much easier and/or a license fee more possible, to fund further development. or indeed a DX spin off. (The fact AS has alluded to this does suggest to me money is still a big issue at AVCT and the market knows this.)

If the Efficacy aspect is withheld or played down, due to at this stage lack of data available, then the money becomes more center stage and the market will want clearer (if poss) direction on this, otherwise we meander for a while longer.

The relative stability of the SP suggests that the buyers are erring on the side of, from out pov, disappointment, or just slow but steady progress. They could be wrong, but again while some might not like it, AVCT's commercial track record on the back of previous, interim very positive statements from AS and the like, would support that cautious approach.

Even it the doors are blown off on Wednesday, there is still plenty of time to buy in at 50-100% above this price and longer term make a phenomenal return.

My view now, is that we are back to funding as the SP anchor.. Because it is only a license deal or buy out that is most likely to remove that need. And there is no sign of that..... yet.

Gr33, " It certainly makes me laugh."

per haps when somebody makes fun of your dead mother (and all the ones that rec those posts) you might have a different opinion.

That poster who I think was Epping by the way, before he was banned is not the full ticket , but by encouraging his obsessive harassment of people who's view he does not agree with you help enable him to continue.

Banter is one thing, his remarks are nothing to do with that.

SB, I think in my defence I did say "If we take AS at face value then indications of efficacy will also be released as he has made specific reference to tumour shrinkage and the famous "paradigm" shift in cancer care and a larger trail will be needed to confirm theses initial results."

So I agree that a re-rate will occur based on your caveat, but assuming the data supports the rhetoric then its difficult to see how this would fly under anyone's radar given every share in the book has their RNS's read and re-read before the market opens at 8:00am.

Just so as to calibrate: what do you think the SP would need to be to justify the term re-rate? (A break out above 140p 185p, or 285P

ATB

Bitl, I concur, this is an absolute key date.

This is basically the end of the trial.

It has officially (while we wait for the official data), caused AVCT to rewrite the next step(s).

This is where it confirms (or not) AS specifically, and AVCT's general announcements of how well the trial has progressed.

BP (and investors) work off data. The data to date has clearly not been detailed or compelling enough to "prove" efficacy. (and that's all that counts when you think about it)

And although this stage of the trial was never designed to demonstrate efficacy, to "work" it was always a combination of the 2. I know part one was to make sure it did not make Dox worse or more dangerous to the patient, but given that was not the case early on, the next part was, did it actually reduce side effects which was simply a by product of releasing dox to the tumour more directly.

My reading of all this is that we know ever larger dosages of Dox have been injected into patients and there are only 2 outcomes.

One, is that it envelops Dox (so no side side affects) and is therefore safe, but it works so well that dox is not released at all. Or two, it does release dox at the site of the tumour.

We know its option 2. What we don't know is how well that targeted approach works which will be revealed in the data release.

If we take AS at face value then indications of efficacy will also be released as he has made specific reference to tumour shrinkage and the famous "paradigm" shift in cancer care and a larger trail will be needed to confirm theses initial results.

But in any event, if the data supports what AS has said then it is HUGE (and the SP will react accordingly)

imo dyor etc etc

And I think it is. where has the SP gone in the last 2 trading sessions?

hasn't moved, hasn't gone down, so it still looks to me its about to break out.

Do what you like, I really, really, really don't care.

Pd, Do you know if she was she on the AVCT trial?

I'm only speculating but my reading would be that an "unsolicited" approach reported in the way it was, indicates an offer so low that it was rejected by the bod.

If the approach had been "successful, then that would have been reported with all the details (who, how much etc).

Well said Don.

That's Kind D, and I will no doubt keep tabs on this.

Fingers crossed next weeks Trial News will be a happy christmas for many, but mostly for the people who are suffering from the disease

Morning D,

Our Girl at Eve, also seemed very nice (and I am sure she was but....).

Thing is (again like EVE), once it goes into administration then the assets are sold off with very little or nothing going to the shareholders. I wonder how much our rig is worth now? (even with the new bits).

I think the irony is (and with hindsight), t would have been cheaper to buy a brand new one when DM got hold of the black and decker one way back when...anyway we are where we are...:0))

I am as relaxed about this financially as I had a pretty small sum on the off chance it would come good.

I sold out yesterday because now to me, the odds are increased of failure and with yet another dilution 2 things happen. One the SP will not reach the highs it would have done prior to all these dilutions so the gain has been chipped away at and at the same time the "failed" drill is starting to raise concerns of either there is no commercial helium there and/or HE1 is not a big enough outfit in experience and financial stability to carry this through.

Your point (and others), that there seemed a strong argument to stay put, get the rig fixed and finish the last bit of drilling given they were hopeful/expectant of finding the reservoir. I too, find it odd that they did not.

Which then leads to doubt it was as quite as good a drill as they let on. That then makes sense to up stumps and try somewhere else.

There is much talk of the 6p placing being flipped and money made. Maybe but I expect there were some holders that thought it worth holding and have seen 2/3rds of their money gone with the expectation of further losses.

Quite how another raise will enthuse rich funds to take a punt i don't quite see,

Anyway, for all those reasons, for me the picture has changed so therefore so has my view.

ATB

Oh you really are quite the moron.... I was being ironic about the quality of research expertise here due to you Pl, Tim, watching, yeboa and others.

There is a reason why so few posters are left, as reasonable, well adjusted individuals, don't actually get off on the constant abusive drivel posted by those that try to dominate any pov they don't agree with.

hi d,

a lot more questions than answers. i don't quite understand how they have run out of cash quite so quickly after a cash raise of only a few weeks ago.

also not reassured by the fact that they are talking to unnamed parties for funds. under my own rules of taking everything ceo's say with a ton of salt, it sounded a bit...whats the word... bull ****ery.

anyway. personally it looks to be on its knees now. sp so low that the amount of money that can be raised looks to be very stop gap. one more breakdown and there would not be funds left to finish...again!

anyway, you pays your money and all that....

Hi gmcc, yes 500p would be lovely and seems (if the news is as good as promised) should be dooable in the short term.

Agree with your sentiments and hope you have many, many years left but it also highlights that time, in relation to returns, is neither moot nor irrelevant to investment decisions.