Member Info for wyndrum

I agree Stokey, but my logic is the consortium would not be going with Harl if harl don't have the longevity to see this through. Which means to me, that the funding is in place.

My analogy might be:

"We want to rent out your 2 rooms of your house but we understand you have no money to pay the mortgage?"

"Its ok, we have remortgaged...see.....here are the offer papers...."

Absolutely, you can't bid for a company without having the money to do it. Therefore they have the money to do it ergo......

Should also precipitate a release of the overall funding agreement. as the first question will be:

Where did you get the money from?

I expect this is ring fenced and separate to the overall funding plan but, the consortium would not be going ahead if their main operator and partner was about to go bust.

imo dyor etc

The only drag (for me) Chris, is when? I though Q4 was nailed on but now there is doubt about that in some quarters.

Anyway, patience is a virtue and it gives me time to add a few here and there...

i think you need to realise groot, that hurst is just taking the ****.

plenty here still find it amusing, so he carries on.

Its never (normally) just one thing, but given the market cap and the order bank that is increasing and all the refurbing of the premises, increased labour force etc, it would seem to me the major catalyst would be the finance deal as that then cements all the other pieces together.

So I think that there would be a big rerate back to the high 20's or in fact beyond on the announcement of re-financing

Maybe the use of "optics" is wrong, my broader point was I would have thought it would be now very difficult to get it away.

Given its only been 3 months since they raised for the 2nd time for the same reason. To do it again for a 3rd time ,at this stage...really?

It was possible for those that bought at 6p to just about get out with some profit, but it was a close run thing and therefore I am not sure if they would stump up again. (It spent very little time above 6p)

The discount to get it away would be irrelevant as there is still no guarantee of success, in fact every failure, for whatever reason only increases the likely hood of further failure.

If they have the money for the 2nd drill then they should spend it as that would seem the only way of taking this forward (or indeed putting it up for sale.)

Well, I guess, if you had any sense, you would run a mile! Ha ha

If it could close above 3.3p (so 3.35/3.4p) then if you were blind to the company and just were looking at the chart then there is a reliable signal (combining the RSI pattern with the chart pattern) that a reversal would likely be underway or at the very least further gains were likely.

Stokey, the full expensing was due to run out in 26 so maybe given the long term investment and expenditure it will be relevant? Maybe not a game changer but it could be that Harl will want to squeeze every drop of positivity while they (hopefully) negotiate this potentially dangerous time in the company's history?

Cheers

This is my tentative expectation, that Harl will make an announcement soon after the statement (within a week), highlighting how they will be able to take advantage of the "new" tax rules (assuming they arrive), with the resulting saving of money over the coming years. and therefore the effect on positive cash flow. (dyor)

This is not to say they won't do it before any more drills but there is no real positive spin to put on it.

I f they goo early, then what do they say, we had 2 raises to get ready for this drill campaign having had raise for the previous failed one.

We eventually got a rig and it broke down 3 times in 3 weeks, we still never got to TD so we are not much further forward, We know helium is down, but then thats been known from the get-go.

So give us yet more money to work with the same unreliable drill to see if we can actually complete one drill properly which we have promised for years and never delivered on....

It's not a compelling argument.

However if they can drill again and then find helium then the next about of money raising won't be an issue.

So thats the only order that makes sense, (to me) and if they don't do it that way round then they have as much confidence as I do that they will actually deliver.

The big red flag that has kept my "investment" (ha!) suitably and appropriately low, is that no one, no big major, has ever bought them out. This fantastic, almost nailed on profit opportunity, which would be small beer for any of the majors has never sparked any interest from them.

So, the risk remains the same but time drags on..... what a bore this drilling game is.... (see what I did there?)

gla :0))

Its fallen just about every day since the 10th

I thought the whole point was that the platform would address multiple cancers but you know what, you are right.

There is little or no chance of any other treatment in the next decade overtaking currently what AVCT are trying to do anywhere on anything.

You win.

DTW, the cancer has gone. Do you think it matters to the patient how that happened. What if his treatment was a less than the cost of 600K.

You ask for an example I give you one and still you can't have the grace to acknowledge that my point was valid.

There are numerous trials in various stages trying to solve the same problem by various means and will continue over the next decades. And you think that that poses no risk to the ultimate sales of ava6k?

Fair enough.

Whats the point? In an answer to a question what are the risks to ava600, I said other break throughs to cancer treatments: Abuse followed with lots of recs.(so its not just the poster)

Today in the papers:

"A former Manchester United football scout has been spared invasive surgery and given the all-clear thanks to a new cancer trial. Tom Critchley, 76 , went to The Christie hospital in Manchester after being diagnosed with early-stage rectal cancer last April. The trust offered him the chance to join the Aphrodite trial, investigating whether a higher dose of radiotherapy increases the chance that rectal cancer can be treated without surgery."

So, like I say whats the point of posting here?

Si,

H&G close prices last 3 months 11.75p was a high on the way up and has has been visited twice on the way down.

(my analysis is more fundamental but the chart is aiding my time of entry)

I Have indeed convinced myself Si!

( Guilty as charged, although the alternative would be to buy and not be convinced...)

Its all a guess anyway, so once I have used my (not always) reliable logic I then it only leaves the outcome of abuy. Then it comes down to timing.

I like the chart as it seems to be holding on to support line, so this is as good a place as any given there is more chance than not, of an RSN giving details of the finance deal likely being in the next week/month. ATB

I wonder if Harl have delayed the finance deal based on the autumn statement this week as there might likely be some better terms to business on offer?

I argued with myself that there is no substance to my thought process other than the govt will have been working on the terms of business boost(a) for a few months and conversations might have taken place given the amount of govt ministers that have been with H&W for all sorts of reasons recently.

The spread is very tight so added a few more today.

The plus side is the amount of activity Harl are involved in with all the PR that goes with it, its extensive, far reaching and diverse. It just seems there is too much going on to be smoke and mirrors (it could be, but to me, the odds of it are slim).

Which leaves in my thinking, the odds of Harl going forward are (much) better than not, which then leads to the SP , which if my internal BS odds machine is right, means this looks to be a good opportunity.

DYOR etc

Hi Wolfie,

".... which is that if the results next week are not positive, no amount of exciting sounding future plans are going to prevent the share price from taking a hit? And if that happens, most of the folk on here won't be around to see any such future developments." which is that if the results next week are not positive, no amount of exciting sounding future plans are going to prevent the share price from taking a hit? And if that happens, most of the folk on here won't be around to see any such future developments."

Well not really. Only if it indudces people to sell. Some, (Many?) might just take the hit , if it comes, and carry on waiting, and indeed top up, so I don't really agree with the premise.

Cheers

Oh well, Skips, thats a relief, I think this is just normal de-risking.

Good weekend all.