Member Info for wyndrum

Gmcc, its never a question a knocking your own investments, its a case of, if the information changes, does the individual change its overall view?

Al business big or small, ALWAYS look at the potential downsides to do risk assessments. PLC's will give positive forward guidance and also give a list of risks that could de-rail those forecasts.

What this BB is an aversion ever to consider risks and what likely hood have they got of occurring.

Your statement "I am interested in all Avacta assets and expect to get a good return on my investment will take as long as it takes" is unlikely to be true if the news turned out to be disappointing. Would you just carry on holding? and forever?

It makes perfect sense to hold for the long term but that is on the proviso that they have valuable, proven tech.

That is not the case just yet. Its not a crime to keep an open mind and to be wary of what companies proclaim prior to validated results. It is not a crime to look at the history of the company to see how they have acted and performed in the past to get a understanding of how they might act going forward.

And it should not be a crime to discuss risk as well as reward on an investment BB

I agree Estura,

Too many unfortunately in MSM will no doubt have first hand experience (incl friends and relatives) of the awful effect of side effects. And the public generally are naturally frightened of them to the point where some will forgo the treatment as they do not wish to have potentially their last months taken in the pain and suffering of the side effects.

So I think it would be a huge story on its own. To go hand in hand with a "cure" makes it the global health story of the year.

First important part. I have no knowledge of this company or what it does or what its recent history is.

Just looking at the chart:

Going back to late oct when the SP was at the low of 11.5p the RSI was showing the stock as dramatically oversold and was a good buying point.

Since then a big spike and equally dramatic fall to a new low of 11.25p

Using the RSI, although its not in oversold territory, it is beginning to form a reversal pattern.

The key word is "beginning": Its not there yet. But a day close above 11.75p would be the trigger.

The first target would be 19p (rough numbers 7p/ share gain. Stop loss if its a false breakout would be 10.75p, a 1p per share loss.) Risk reward at 7-1 is excellent and from a chart perspective well worth the punt.

just my opinion, dyor etc etc and never bet more than you can comfortably afford to lose. etc etc

I'll pop my thoughts over there rather than here if thats ok D?

Ha ha Dave,

Overall, its a pretty rubbish BB (actually the worse one I have visited on LSE), with the more analytical posters forced off, but the RNS's tell the story, and it could be some story.....

Well, if we are touting life boats then look at AVCT. Update next wednesday with results of their trial

Potentially if its as good as they have been talking up then you might recoup a lot of your money her. (Dyor etcetc)

Beats waiting here until mid Jan.....

Looks good to me

I'm not sure what motivation will do? will it magically make helium appear where none is found?

Violet, its only a long term project if they find commercial helium.

If HE1 fail with the third drill and go back and finish the 2nd drill and still none of it is good enough, then I really don't know who or why anyone would fund more into this company.

I remember DM saying a big producer with HE1's licenses, would be drilling like crazy and the basin would look like a pin cushion with all the multiple drills taking place.

It was a timely reminder then that the odds against HE1 striking it rich in 1 or 2 goes were extremely high. Its always been a feature that this company has never at any stage had a whiff or rumour of a take over, which also perhaps shows the stacked odds against likely success.

Still, we have all come this far......:0))

"Wyn yes , you may need specs 🙄"

Yes you are right... I think I am reading the SP is 12.5p...

:0))

I agree MS, I don't think the 2 week testing has started either, but I would expect some sort of clarification or more explicit timeline on this event now.

Given what AS has said in the past there should be quite a lot of new information to digest next week.

Having said that I am not sure how much will be divulged beforehand other than the official data itself.

Given the background to this RNS it would seem to be the culmination of the last 2 years of testing and It should be good, and its a great start that a timeline has been met, and thats not nothing (seriously).

There is bound to be some reference to the latest cohort and with it an update on the parallel 2 week testing program.

The data should (must?) confirm AS's rhetoric previously and although he has had form for hyperbole I think/hope this will be the one that justifies his previous remarks.

The only surprise for me is the SP reaction so far but I guess everyone was expecting an RNS and time was shortening as to when it would be. (Also the day has not finished yet.)

(A close above 140p would be positive.)

I think the other point Sine, is that "spin" does not cut it with exploration companies.

Both companies are now, finally, at the business end of all their plans and objectives, devised over many years. As a result its either commercial discovery or bust and all will be revealed in the coming weeks.

Sine, I imagine its just a straightforward risk play.

You have one where its somewhat up in the air, and the other as you say, all but declares a discovery.

Which stock, right now, would rather be in?

Apologies if I am reading this incorrectly but are you referring to a few trades that total about £20k?

Have I missed a decimal point or something?

Viking's point is kind of relevant inasmuch as, the platform needs to for shorthand, cure the cancer, or at the very least extend not just life but critically, quality of life.

We all look at the potential that BP might/would pay for the tech, but its not really about that its about the end user. Whats in it for them? (and thats important because they are the ones that will have to pay BP for this new system,)

If you google cost of cancer care there are many articles where it seems the cost to health authorities is becoming prohibitive. and that the cost of cancer drugs and treatment are spiraling out of control.

So if we take our own NHS (and there are many countries that employ some sort of public health system), then why pay more to extend the life of terminally ill patient by another 6-12 months. All that will do is mean yet more cost to the health authority for the extended life for no gain.

However unpalatable this may seem this is unfortunately, when money is an issue (ie everywhere), a fact of every budget managers life.

If the platform reduces or allows the cancer to be destroyed then there is a saving of money and resources going forward and thats when the demand and value really kick in.

At the moment it seems health authorities are prepared to pay the ever increasing cost of terminal treatment, but there might come a breaking point.

And anyone who thinks this is misplaced, see what the cost of private health insurance is and all to often the caveats that go with it. How many of us could afford it? (and it becomes a n0n-starter if you already have been diagnosed with a condition.)

To me it only highlights that time is critical. Right now the window is open, we should not assume (imo) that it will be forever.

But the pressure is on for better outcomes for less cost, not more.

Lets hope the surprising tumour shrinkage is just the beginning of a "cure" rather than simply a "better" treatment platform

I think Joe, you protest too much.

Parts are delayed all the time and miss their due dates. It could be the date that was promised to He1 has been missed, or was simply an estimate and as such HE1 wanted to wait until the part was actually in their hands and then the timelines would be under their control. That might not have happened yet.

Its not amazon, its Africa with customs and transportation to take into account. Variables that are outside their control.

In any event at some time the part will arrive, it will be fitted and the rig will be operational.

If you don't like the bet any more , then sell. If you think it still has upside either be patient, or if you believe that it is not a duster (because they have cased it) than buy more?

Neither is the seller.

According to you, should have jumped on at 185p too, so whats your point?

You are right Turbs, we are going to have to disagree.

They did not buy the rig knowing it was going to continually break down.

Or if they had reservations but no other rig option was available, then would you have preferred. "we bought this rig but don't have much faith is up to the task.". Would that have been transparent enough?

I'm not sure what other scenario's were available

They are not a "successful" company, they are in the very, very high risk of exploration, which as we are learning is incredibly expensive to fund.

No public company issues "bad" news. Thats why they have PR companies, they use clever words to mitigate or hide anything that might hurt the SP, which is what you claim you want.

You say they should fill the space as they are not busy... with what exactly? What could they say that would not be immediately seen as flannel, and as a result it would look desperate.

As best as I can see, given the job they do, LB is being professional. Whether or not it could be done better I have no idea, but given cash constraints, she is pretty hamstrung by events outside her financial control.