Member Info for wyndrum

It depends if its making money or not.

Its immaterial what AVCT paid for it.

Bridge, current Mk cap is £180m If the Dx was worth somewhere between £18-36m then its worth maybe 5-10p.

Thats what I said.

(Also in updates they usually say how the new year has started and give guidance on what they expect. Given this update is 4 months into the first half of the new year then I expect something a bit more in depth, esp given the latest events....)

I am not expecting deals...but if there is a definitive improvement in treatment due to 2WD then there would be a very sharp re-rate (imo).

Its just how much info will they have to share? If its an "early days, nothing to see here...yet" holding update then it might be like most updates, somewhat underwhelming, however it was AVCT that said "it expected the safety data monitoring committee (SMDC) to review the data from the two-weekly cohort one by the end of April."

(Hopefully they will have good news tomorrow. I think it more likely than not given the very late date for this update.)

The market will expect the first update on the 2WD tomorrow based on AVCT saying it would have the early results by the end of April.

Big, big day

"He is therefore naturally very cautious with his language, and so statements such as "trial results are promising" ...."

well, you should email him and abuse him, and then say he is a Fudster and then tell him you have filtered him for such pointless negativity, oh, and tell him you hope his short position burns him.

"You really are an idiot sometimes, "

Ice, really, Its you that are so sure about everything. I am forever saying we don't know Jack.

What i try to see if is there any cause and effect.

I see more cohorts and dosing which AVCT says were an unexpected surprise, delaying the trail but about 12-15 months. This then caused another raise.

I see thanks to hurst, every tom dick and harry being bought out for billions on what at face value seems a tiny fraction of AVCT's value, so i come to the conclusion that BP are not interested (for whatever reason), and in the meantime the 3 raises that have come in at 120p, 95p and now 50p causing ever more dilution and capital destruction as a company that is running a trial that has so far not gone to their plan.

You on the other hand see 3 years of SP decline as micro BS and keep saying when FDA approval comes etc etc as though its nailed on.

If it were already done, it would already be approved.

Yet I am the short term gambler and you are the long term.... (use any adjective that comes to mind to make you feel better.

(And not for nothing but my last purchase of last week is up 10%, you may think thats peanuts but its a start, let me know when you get to breakeven, admittedly my purchase was based on the voodoo of charts, but who cares. I could have bought a load at 50p instead, although at the time I said I wouldn't due to the voodoo thing again.)

"They are also building a platform of chemo drugs, I’m sure they probably could have rushed AVA6000 after cohort 4 however the fact they didn’t find an MTD and got valuable information will help the clinical process of other drug candidates AVA3996."

Your sure.. probably... yet no other pahrma can see it or has seen it yet, although AVCT have moved to London to be next door to BP and all the other "likes" from other players in the field, and the science day and the posters that have been displayed and the RNS's (which always move the SP so someone is reading, but not apparently people as smart as you to figure it out.

Buth this was the best one...."Maybe Avacta are not for sale this raise was to protect any hostile takeover attempts."

Ha ha ha, My house is not for sale so I am going to reduce the price by 50% to put people off from trying to buy it.....

Do you not, when you are writing out your reply realise how desperate it sounds?

The thing is Ice, when?

|You keep saying Micro this Macro that, as though somehow that is an argument that trumps all others, but other small oncology companies are as you say, being bought out, so why hasn't AVCT?

The science worked clearly (from our pov) after cohort 3, or 4 to be absolutely sure. Why then another 3 to go up to 7? wasn't it only to emphasize how fantastic it was?

Is that what you believe? Or do you accept that after dose 4 it was not unequivocal that it worked and that more dosing was required?

Because it seems to me, if it "works" in the way that you are so absolutely convinced by and its just a matter of time, then AVCT should have been bought out already but if more proof were needed then it means clearly, the data was not as one sided as we all were led to believe?

Which one is it?

Yeah thats right watching.... what's your excuse?

If you believe I am paid then why don't you just filter me? why read anything I say? What reason could you give to monitor this BB 7 days a week.

It can't be what I post because I post a whole range of views. From TA (up or down as I think it will go), to potential explanations of the events as they unfold, so its not content.

So what, as you would say, sad, miserable boring life do you have that your only comment is to invent and make stuff up? Its nothing to do with AVCt when you religiously keep up this silly pointless and childish posts with absolutely no thought at all in what you are saying.

I guess you don't yet have the maturity to think very far ahead. Well hopefully that will come in time.

How do we know AS is no good as a CEO?

We have zero info really, on how the company is financially run.

My beef (for a long time) was to me, (I stress the "me") the misleading info he has released on interviews. However I am also aware that he has little choice other than to paint a partial picture of exaggerating the positive and down playing or ignoring the negative aspects. The rounder picture is only revealed either way after the event, or through more intrusive questioning. As a results all of those Paul Hill Interviews to me looked scripted. Its why AVCT choose what questions are allowed in Q&A sections etc etc. But that is part of the job and does not reflect AVCT financial acumen (or not).

What if ....

What if the DX deals were actually a recognition of the opportunity of this fragmented huge market and these companies were/are undervalued and all they needed was extra resource and funding to get them to the next level? This would take capital investment, and added resources which AVCT have provided. Then all of a sudden the DX deals would look pretty savvy. An alternative might be the silence on this might be to have kept the valuation low, because the time for DX to be worth as a spin off, a reasonable amount was not going to come in time before more funding and AS hinted/mentioned/said/ that AVCT was valued too highly given the stage of where it was in its development.

Which gets us to the raise as the other contentious issue of his stewardship.

Some here did not see it coming but plenty did and I think so did the market. What I think took many more by surprise was the low price . This suggests that maybe AVCT were not in full control at that stage to be able to dictate terms in any meaningful way. I imagine this will not be the last raise (assuming there is no TO.) Therefore these funds may well be tapped again if they have kept their stock in the future, and they are building their stakes at effectively discounted prices. (The next raise can only come after yet more successful results). So they have a further de-risked proposition at, as I say, a discount to the market. That, if it was part of the deal, means that AVCT are looking 18-24 months ahead and would make sense of the don't worry about the funding remark, as he was not talking about this one but ultimately securing the future to keep AVCT independent to return max shareholder value.

I don't know if this musing has any validity, but as an alternative scenario it at least highlights our complete ignorance of actually what goes on behind the scenes and maybe we should not always rush and jump to conclusions when we should rather, admit our lack of knowledge a bout these matters.

On the other hand the BOD might well be, not up to the job......

Ah, the "magic" RSI.....as indicators go its a bloody good one (imo)...

"Where is the proof AS does not like PIs..."

well he told me how disguted he was with some of them. He basically shut down the email connection to the company to protect the staff from abuse.

So there's that.

Oh and the destruction of the value of the company, (Which he is meant to work on behalf of all shareholders. It looks like the telegram group get better access because as a block they are bigger, so not really the same as all votes are equal.)

oh and ambiguous statements. Which can easily be intepreted different ways.

If he "liked" PI's he would have recognised his slips of timelines and in future statements could have been more explicit for the more hard of hearing.

His view I imagine, is more of a "I don't care, I never forced them to buy this stock, and its a rough game."

But what do I know?

Whether or not he likes PI's, I don't think he cares about them/us at all...not even a bit... or what has happened to their wealth when hanging on his every word.

Flip, I meant that AS could "recommend" it. And then tried to show that PI's may not be as adverse to it as some are on here.

My point being AS saying that he knows what they have and PI's getting a piece of it, could easily be mutually exclusive.

Ice, I agree. FDA approval would/should get the show back on the road.

However your mantra of FDA approval being the only thing that matters to you is not the point. (I think you know that too, but for reasons I don't know but can only guess at, you refuse to engage with. Maybe the hole you have dug is to deep to climb out of...)

Anyway, say a bid goes in tomorrow at 90p and settles around there or even up to 200p, pick a (reasonable) number, way ahead of any potential FDA. Takes all the risk away for shareholders on timings, of approvals, future trials, of cash runway etc etc. For a lot of people they will multi bag. I think that would go through.

There will have been a huge churn in this stock over the last few years, with some banking profit on the way down, but many more cutting their losses. The more you have new(er) shareholders, the more likely they are to have bought in lower down and will see almost any offer price as a profit. (And may be less emotionally tied to the stock as that bond usually develops and strengthens over time)

I don't know what the breakdown is but the PI base might not be as hell bent as you are on seeing it to your conclusion.

So your view of FDA approval that answers and solves all problems may never come to pass.

That's why the SP matters at all times, that's why buying in at the right time matters. Your at best simplistic, one option, view that the world will work to your time table is a pretty risky strategy. (Holding that view for 5 minutes or 5 years does not decrease the risk, by the way).

My mantra here has long been "its not about the science, its about the money" was to engender conversation given what AVCT are trying to do, but truly, its only ever about the money.

PI's are just fodder for these companies to keep the lights on. Its not about us, its about the big players. AS could approve a buy out at 130p, and get a new fantastic pay plan and options with the new owner. Why would he care? Whatever happens if the tech is successful he will become immensely rich. The PI may or may not, but for sure, we are not part of the equation. We may get lucky, who knows, but that's what it will be.

Hi Touk, I have never got involved with vintage guitars so don't really have any idea.

(I have some vintage guitars of my own only because there are 40 years old from new!)

Meant to be a good source of investment these days apparently. But how you value them seems like most art, pretty arbitrary .

Funny isn't it, some who think I have had the influence to drive the SP down through my opinions (ridiculous), and seem very angry about what my imagined motivations are , are some of the same posters who are "grateful" to the market to allow them to mop up the shares at these low prices.

Funny old world

LDA, yes it was along post and you still didn't get it, oh well.

(Clue: I don't care how seriously you take me. And why should the amount I bought influence your view of me? I'm still the same person whether I bought £5k or £500k, (You choose)

Crowfoot, I don't profess to "see" anymore than anyone else.

If all you are saying it was pretty obvious then great, but plenty here say its all rubbish, obviously a few think TA might have merit.

Anyway, fingers crossed this is as low as it will ever go.

LDA, what difference does it make? what difference does my holding make?

I bought 10,000 I bought 100,000. I could tell you honestly but you will only believe what you want no matter what I post.

This is just my hobby.

(fwiw I have a lot more wealth tied up in other areas.)

Nysize likes to poke fun that I have used my experience to convert some winnings to stuff that I value more than money. He thinks it belittles me to buy a guitar even though its been my passion for 50 years.

I have never bothered with watches being a "thing" but my wife thought it would be nice to have something to pass down so I followed her wishes and I am very glad that I did as now after some years I value my watch much more than its monetary value.

To me life is about doing things and experiences . Is there any difference between a cheap blended whisky and a fine vintage single malt? To realise the difference one must experience, then decide.

Things cost money. Money itself for its own purpose is worthless. But being fortunate to have it opens up choices and options and a greater chance to experience things that one has never done before..

if all my stocks went up ten fold it would make little difference now to my already accumalated wealth and what I would do.

I don't "need" any of this to be a success, but I like the puzzle, I like to see if there is a way of beating the house. So far i'm up but maybe I'll go on a terrible streak and it will all come out in the wash and it was all a co-incidence, an illusion. Who cares?

We come onto this world with nothing and leave the same way. Might as well do as much of what you want while you are here. (Whatever that means to the individual.)

The thing I note from the many, many judgmental posts I endure here, is that many care more about this buying and selling routine than I do. They seem far more emotionally wrapped up in the whole thing, trying to weave "I am better person than you", in their remarks, either through just plain abuse or the "I'm an investor, you are a gambler" " You are stupid but I smart "etc etc, stchik, as though I care, as though it makes any difference in fact, in their life either.

So you imagine any number or amount I bought that makes you happy.