Member Info for wyndrum

I said Chief, because I THINK, the 3WD produced a wide range of inconsistent results.

And that actually overloading the amount of dox was not producing the results they expected, so they then have gone for a lower dose more frequently. I wouldn't say out of desperation, but it suggests to me, that it produced unexpected deviations in different patients.

If this had been running consistently then I think at the end of DE4 they could have surmised that 2WD was the way forward, but the data was not clear enough then.

The reason I think this, is that it could have been announced in advanced. there will be 4 cohorts and assuming safety is proven we will introduce a short 2WD regime to confirm and fine tune dosing got the efficacy part of the trial.

I don't have any sort of problem with adapting the trial to what is being revealed, just suggesting that this perhaps has not exceeded expectations and they are feeling their way in the trial, which in turn, for me, takes away a lot of the "certainty" of success that has been baked in here.

(And for sure if really was as slam dunk as many here think then you would not have had a raise at 50p and certainly not a 20% decline since.) imo, dyor etc

ES. well, thanks for that considered opinion.

Not sure how your scenario reflects a SP 20% below the raise that was for most on this BB, at a shockingly low value, given we are in the midst of this 2Wd which according to you will cause a bidding war and TO as soon as the results are known to the public.

Did you ever post anything similar while the 3WD was going on?

Just trying to get a sense of when you have been correct in your analysis.

A few months ago ice I thought thats where it would go. In the short term now after the scale and where the placing was set, (2-3 months) I think it will 10 bag from where it is.

You seem to be under the delusion (and I use the word under its definition "A delusion is a belief that is clearly false and that indicates an abnormality in the affected person's content of thought. "), that my musing can affect the SP.

I express my opinion at the time. When new news or thoughts occur to me then I will change my view.

I don't know quite what your problem with that is.

If you think I can alter peoples buying behaviour, based on a posting on LSE then you are ...well at the risk of repeating myself, delusional.

Its really is very close now to breaking out......

Gje it is simply an alternative scenario to Energy's. Thast all.

I say where I think his opinion doesn't gel for me, and explain how I have come to my conclusion.

Neither of us have any info to confirm one way or the other.

I would suggest that I have more circumstantial evidence to support my thoughts than energy does, in the new short, the low and continually falling SP and the lack of any TR1'sw that we know of over the length of the trial.

How do you justify an continually falling SP ever since the trial started if the results have exceeded expectations?

ES, "So T/O in the next few weeks while SP is depressed could be an option, but other BP companies won’t let just one have this platform at this level without a fight."

This is the bit I don't get here.

It all hinges according to your opinion, on the 2wd results, causing a TO and bidding war.

Does not that by implication mean you believe that the results to date have not been enough to convince potential buyers to get in previously?

Either the trial data to date is already compelling but clearly due to the lack of stake building, shorts and general depressed SP, suggests that it is not, but somehow the 2WD is now the critical part of the trial?

It just seems to be a bit of a leap in the logic for me.

My take is that the continuing cohorts was that the data was ambiguous and that the amount of dox in dose 7 was high enough to produce, or starting to produce, debilitating side effects, so 2WD was introduced to produce better outcomes more of a last resort.

This for me explains the extra time needed to finish the 3WD in the first place and the falling SP along side it. It also for me explains why the SP is still under pressure. It might also explain why it takes so long to get patients if the data to date was so exceptional, So far from exceptional results I think it has under per4formed to expectation.

But it does put 2WD as now a very important part of the trial. Hopefully this gets it and the SP back on track.

just my opinion dyor etc

I think if EWT is good then somewhere between 5-10p, so 10-20 bagger from here.

imo dyor etc

Bought quite a few first thing this morning at .54p.

(i'm surprised that anybody was surprised by this, by the way),

This allows things to develop for a commercial valuation.

If its as good as we all hope then this is a great price. There will be more money needed to go into production so how that will be funded is up for grabs, but my best GUESS is it will be a JV or even a takeover.

gla

I did buy at 42p and no, I have not sold out.

I can express views without being affected by my own holding as i don't over commit. (fwiw I think 38p would do it for me to sell and reduce my holding to a much smaller rump still)

My assertion is that the longer this goes on and that the SP falls, that something is probably not going to plan.

Sacking the CEO with no explanation suggests to me, that nothing transformational is due anytime soon, or he would have been kept on as the good news would make any previous actions irrelevant.

At best now if a buy out comes soon I think it will be around 100-150p simply because it will still be years away from commercialisation with many more rounds of cash needed. I don't see DX helping enough, I don't see affimer milestone payments helping as they have gone very quiet.

This company has run for more than a decade and I am not sure how much farther on than the rat trial we really are....

We don't seem to have the resources to progress with the speed that you would expect. It takes too long to recruit patients and as a result end up having the minimum which leads to the amount of data being provided being open to question.

So a buyer now would not have to pay a fortune as I believe many PI's want to have the emotional release from this stock and would jump at the chance.

Watching, did you predict the raise? did you predict a share price fall? Did you predict the LFT failure?

What have you posted that has enhanced anybody's wealth here?

I ask only because you seem to think I lie but at the same time have been correct in my views (over several years, as to where the SP has headed?

What record have you got here for being correct in your analysis, seeing as we are, where we are.

Please do explain that the longer the trial continues, so the SP falls. Why do you think that is? Its not due to data, because we have had the latest data revealed on the 2WD.

So what "truths" do you have to reassure that all is going to plan that the wider market is incapable of recognising?

At last! thanks you... (God, that was hard work.)

Ye Gods, its an investment!

Its the return on the investment is not only the key but what I am trying to discuss.

Its not about AVCt improving patients lives, its the value the market assigns to that in light of new technologies coming to the fore.

If, just if, for the sake of proving my view, what if AVCT was bought tomorrow for 120p a share (which would be an endorsement of their tech to date), would you consider AVCT as an investment, a success or not?

Its not scaremongering Ice, its a fact of life. There are new ways of treating Cancer that does not involve toxic drugs that did not exist before.

Are they going away? Is the speed of technical change accelerating?

Has computing power increased to make number crunching easier and quicker over the last 50 years? Do you think AI will have an effect on research and trials? Do you think any of this will decrease in speed of change, or accelerate?

It is not scare mongering to look to the future. Your myopic approach of only looking at avacta and choosing to ignore any and all competition, is simply inexplicable.

You refuse to acknowledger that a decimated SP over many months is more likely to reflect a lack of confidence from the market (and I mean BP et al) that this will turn out to fulfil its early lab trial promise.

Everything that points to potentially a failed bio tech is blythly ignored by your inane pronouncements that every RNS that contradicts the previous one, is only proof positive that everything is going to plan.

In all my life in investing I have never met anyone quite so blinkered or reluctant to consider the "bigger picture" than yourself.

No idea muck, but using HL platform the SP has been moving by 5% up and down for a few trading days now.

The chart showed the break above 11p (11.2p high) and then fell back to 11p.

So at the moment this is confirming the break of 11p, as the resistance has transformed into a support level.

It keeps trying to go up and it does look as though there is a seller out there that is holding the SP down, but that seems to be having the effect of allowing new buyers to come into what is seen as a good value price.

So the chart is performing as expected (so far) but it is on a bit of a knife edge. But as I am fond of saying, you need a plan, and if the plan is falling into place then at some stage, you need to pull the trigger....

gla

Ice, when you say "....or understanding of how long trials take and this is an investment not a get rich quick scheme."

Is very true, however, It was the BoD that said a phase 3 was not needed. it was the BoD that set the timelines.

Its been years and we are still on the safety aspect. The very first part of the trial.

And all the time (as I mentioned when the first time line was missed), new treatments are coming out all the time. The clock is ticking. How long does making toxic drugs more palatable have in the new environment?

3 -4 years to get it to market and then what 5-10 years of use?

The use now of vaccines while very expensive will only reduce in price.

The "downside" of the AVCT approach is that side effects are still present and the more doses you have the more those side effects show themselves. The great news is that you can have more of the drug and that should extend life an d maybe in some cases, cure it. But if there is an alternative with NO side effects then surely thats the direction of travel going forward.

So yes, it takes time, but innovation and competition is the reason why these type of investments are such high risk and should not be glossed over in a way that you seen to do with no understanding or factoring that AVCT could "succeed" with the science but still "fail" as new therapies undermine the market they expected to move into, affecting its value.

So how much will BP pay after all, when these new vaccine therapies are emerging?

Its a game, but a risky one. The smart money (which is Thorn, imo) wait for the risk to disappear then pay the re-rated price, but still get SP appreciation for little or no risk. Otherwise you end chasing a dozen or so of AVCT's in the hope one makes it and even then there is no guarantee.

Maybe BD, because, the case was always going to be heard , so putting a date on it doesn't change that much?

In aby event I think there is more chance of a rise now than falls in the run up. (I still think this will be interlocked with the finance announcement. but that is just a guess)

Want to explain your obsession with me?

All these references to other companies only starkly highlights the lack of cash AVCT have and the time they have taken to get this far.

There was always going to be another need for funding as soon as the the first one only raised about £10m.

The only issue is whether it will be diluting or not. (Probably will be), and then at what price? (and how much do they want to raise?)

If they launch some SP moving info first then the raise will be at a higher level, if not take your pick as to what the dilution will be.

But if they have enough funds to do the EWT and the results are as good as we hope then its another ball game altogether.

(imo dyor etc etc)

thanks for your compassion, its not quite as good as pl75 who said karma is a ***** as though the death of a 30 year old with the resulting loss to the rest of her children and husband is somehow the universe righting your opinion of me.

its despicable.

and again how many of these posts have not mentioned my response to someone saying they thought the sp was manipulated, but simply gone off at tangents to have a pop at me?

as though i care what your opinion is when you so show little humanity.