Member Info for wyndrum

Hi Vects, well that was kinda my thinking, but as Roly pointed out it might not be relevant to the 2023 accounts?

But as a separate issue, my original thought was that without the IM asset on the books has it made HW insolvent?

So maybe they 2023 accounts can be signed off but not if the company in July 2024 is "technically" bust? Hence the delay while waiting for the loan to be signed off?

Its all a bit of a mess, but at least we can have these thoughts and conversations without being accused of trying to affect the SP! (ha ha)

Thats a good point Roly, thanks

Is the general consensus that the accounts won't be signed off until the loan is completed beforehand?

I think Citizen, its the name. H&W. It is so iconic and it is a big employer in NI with such a history, it is natural for the media to latch on to it as most of the public will most probably be aware of it.

Morning Legal,

I get why many don't like/get TA but normally the criticism is imo misplaced through a misunderstanding of its basis and what its trying to do.

I don't mind flying the flag for it as long as it stays convivial. Its when it gets abusive I find it gets tiresome.

I did not see that coming and its a weird one I think in isolation unless there is some money coming from somewhere. Perhaps some more news is due in the next few days? Maybe a big milestone payment?

However apologies to Muffy as I thought his view misplaced but he was correct.

"TA cannot and will not predict a black swan event, i.e. hitting a motherload of resource!"

No system predicts a Back Swan event.

TA is just an odds game, what's more or less likely. Its based on the buys and sells represented in chart patterns as to try and discern Crowd Behaviour.

I find it helpful as a tool to time entry and exit but like all other systems its not foolproof and in the true sense of the word TA does not "predict" anything. Each to his own

There is quite a lot of chart history over the last 6 months but the short story is there is a recent resistance level at 1.40 ish level that was briefly broken on the spike this week at 1.46p and again was looked at today before falling back.

this is now in the 1.30-1.45p and is more of a trading range but the real target is 2.8-3.0p which on the current trajectory looks likely next. (A break below 1.18p would be bearish but the patterns don't suggest that is the most likely next move!)

imo dyor etc etc.

Well, that sounds much more positive.... Just need to get the accounts out now. Maybe this will still fly after all?

My take is that presuming this MOU develops into an actual formal relationship, then the extra sales and therefore profit removes or at least makes the likelyhood of any further funding through RI's much less likely.

This (in my experience), is the single most important milestone of any developing, loss making company. There is not much point buying in if there are more RI's needed to get to break even/profit.

Its when the market believes that its all in place allows bigger stakes to be bought as the fear of dilution recedes and SP appreciation becomes almost nailed on.

I hope/think that this MOU is a big step towards that goal. (dyor etc etc)

Decent chance of moving up again tomorrow. Fell to an intra-day low of 63.34p and worked itself up to close at 69.5p.

Looks to me more chance than not of the retrace being completed. (RSI is now 61.66 so some space has been created for further upward moves.)

Crow, I don't use fib as I find it too unreliable. Its better for indices but even then I found it too hit and miss.

As for closing out. I am happy with my trades in the low 40's. I was not looking to close out. I am content to see this continue as it unfolds.

My response was to people saying next stop 100p etc and I said it was over bought at 75p (I think).It did carry on into 82.5 p which is another 10% but with TA its an odds game, so i think recognising that to buy when its in overbought territory increases the risk of immediate losses or at the very least a, not so good entry point.

Given small caps like this I find very few indicators reliable enough to time entry and exit with the RSI being the exception.

What watching? Don't want to talk about Buffett?

Want to talk about the retrace/fall, I said was most likely?

You really want a rebuttal to Muffy's emotional, selfish and thoughtless rant?

Well, Watching, if you look at any of WB's criteria for investing AVCT does not tick a single box.

So perhaps you should be less insulting as you seem to be talking about yourself.

"What Buffett's rule essentially means is don't become enchanted with an investment's potential gains, but also look for its downsides. If you don't get enough upside for the risks you're taking, the investment may not be worth it. Focus on the downside first, counsels Buffett.7 May 2024"

"Buffett looks at companies as a whole rather than focusing on the supply-and-demand intricacies of the stock market. Some factors Buffett considers include company performance, company debt, and profit margins."

"Buffett believes in the long-term rise of the stock market and the stock indices. He advises people not to be concerned with the regular ups and downs that occur but to rather invest in solid companies and/or low-cost index funds and hold them for the long-term."

Yes but its a bit glib and is not relevant to companies like AVCT, which is/was a small bio pharma with a to date, unproven commercial technology with a history of commercial failure.

He was referring to well capitalised, profitable companies, well positioned in growth markets.

Stkes, my guess (thats all it is), is that HW is insolvent. The accounts have been suspended because the IM asset was revalued to "balance" the accounts. This fits (in my mind) with the accounting RNS where by revenue was adjusted to "industry norms". I think there is less money and less assets with an increasing debt that is overwhelming the company.

But as I say its just a guess. Hopefully JW will keep his word and the shares will be traded, however if the news is less than good the sell off will be quick and brutal i imagine.

I hope I am wrong

The "problem" with that Mary is it would be cheaper to wait for HW to go into administration and buy them out at that stage rather than now. (Plus it costs a fair bit to list so there would be a saving there too.)

No, I think I have already outlined what I think on balance, is most likely.

I would also suggest that since I posted my thoughts when the shares were suspended when I came back from abroad, that the circumstantial state of affairs made the outcome look pretty grim for current shareholders.

But, who knows, the accounts may look better than we now expect, IM might be appealed on Harl's behalf and the govt guarantee the loan. All possible.

Imo it is down the individual to try and guestimate the likelyhood of what event(s) will most likely occur.

In this instance its just a paper exercise as the shares are suspended so there is nothing any of us can do.

I am not remotely concerned about you watching and your glib accusation does not sit well me, (just so you know)

Well, if that makes you feel better, carry on imagining and inventing what you want. makes no difference to me.