Member Info for wyndrum

A JV means another company for putting money in, will expect a return, that had the agreement not been done, then that money/profit would go to shareholders.

Its dilution by another name.

A loan is the only option we would have to protect the current value.

This is hardly rocket science.

Rich, how do you think a JV works?

My "concern" now is simply the multi bag opportunity diminishes with every raise. Its difficult for me now to see, when they will stop diluting the company.. This latest raise simply is for another company with no income for another 12 months (which maybe long term will be a good move) but we will need money before then for Tanzania.

This raise was unforeseen and as I say, does nothing to put any further money in the coffers for the Tanzanian project.

Its not that I don't think they will be successful its just what price the end game?

Sillures, certainly .23p is a support.

It currently looks like it will be tested. and it needs to hold. for those who are long.

The lower highs and lower lows and have so far weeded out those wanting top top up as it fell.

I thinks .23p, if it falls that far, will attract buyers. whether that will be enough to keep some of the current shareholders on board is something only time will tell.

fwiw, I will likely add at that level if it hits it.

It was always likely there would be a retrace as the RSI was in over bought territory.

Now we wait till Tuesday.

Can't see what there is to post about but I am sure around several hundred or more posts will appear anyway...

How does a falling SP translate to a company increasing their stake in the CPX?

It would have to mean there are mass sellers out there which would hardly be an endorsement of the company?

The third and most obvious scenario, that there are some sellers out there and right now there is no great demand to buy them so the MM's are just gently moving the SP down until buyers are found.

"Sooner they are gone for good the better,.... "

A couple of observations: because share trading is so easy and relatively cheap and gambling is now due to govt encouragement, rampant, then any stock with the potential for quick appreciation is going to attract the sort of attention you would prefer it not to.

Its now a fact of life and is part of the share price-moving landscape, so we all need to recognise it as this is the world we now live in.

It is this same cohort that pushes the SP up too as they have to (mostly) buy in before they sell.

I don't ever, ever, recall anyone blaming anyone else when the SP takes off. The most popular reason given is normally astute LTH recognise the huge growth potential and getting in early, as opposed to the "..amateurs and clueless wannabe millionaire."

"Schurter don’t have to notify us of anything because they are not listed. "

While I think that's true, I also don't think they will be coy.

They currently have a 5% reported holding in the company. If (for the sake of argument), they secure a large order using CPX kit then surely they would publicise it because that would have a positive affect on the CPX SP enriching their holding. And as we know the more profitable a company looks with further growth coming, so then the SP reflects that forward thinking, increasing ALL shareholders wealth further. (imo, dyor etc etc)

Mugs, its the Relative strength indicator used to help confirm what is most likely in conjunction with the actual SP movement. (Its an algorithm, as all indicators are, of the SP) Its range is 0-100 with most TA books saying anything above 70 is over bought (therefore likely to fall), and anything below 30 is oversold and the next move is a likely rise.

I have found that 20/80 is a much more reliable basis to buy/sell.

So currently the RSI has moved from last week at 1.44, 59.63 and today at 1.8p closing price the RSI has moved 74.88

Its very dependent on what time frames you use as to what readings you get so the individual needs to be consistent in comparing like-for-like otherwise it increases the odds of a "false" reading.

The get out clause for all people who use TA, is, its just what based on crowd behaviour (that is predictable), is most likely. its not fool proof.

So it can always confound expectations, but its just an odds game. A bit like Poker. You hold 2 kings and an ace, whats the odds of another player having 2 aces if you already have one of them? so you bet large because the odds are on your side.

Really? the price was 1.47 1 week ago so up 20% since, based on no news. what's caused that?

Charts are just a graphical representation of the buys and sells or crowd psychology.

I can confirm I do like charts as I prefer to buy before the news breaks if I can, rather than after... (But that just me.) :0))

If no RNS tomorrow then a pull back to around 1.60p.

If an RNS, then a bit of a surge into the 1.85p-2.65p area and then subsequent pull back to around 1.85p

(The RSI is getting toppy at 74.88......still a bit of potential upward move left but not much.... imo)

1.46p looks to have gone (Closed last night at 1.5p, plus the action today) Assuming it does stay above 1.45p then a close above 1.6p is the next resistance level although not a strong one as it was a spike. So, imo not important. More likely,is a bit of resistance at 1.85p

Then it gets choppy from 1.85p-2.85p.

So what I think is most likely is that it will move to 1.85p and might take a bit of effort to settle into the "old" 1.85p-2.85p trading range. That (historically) will cause quite a bit of volatility so I imagine this BB will be 500 posts a day... (something to look forward to, I s'pose....)

Anyway, a close above 2,85p will be imo, very significant with 6p the next target.

(Plus this is always a moving target so what looks most likely today may change in a few days/weeks time)

(You will be pleased to know that dilution does not cloud TA. Ha ha) dyor etc.

I have to as Hemo:

How would you feel if it proved uncommercial?

Could you sustain the loss or would things have to change?

Hayden, this is my 2p's worth.

The price is based on supply and demand. If people want to buy the stock and the the owners of the stock don't want to sell, then the MM's increase the price to make it attractive to sellers to make the transaction happen.

This therefore makes a precise valuation irrelevant.

On loss making companies and/or companies with potentially transformational earnings then it really is a gamble and guessing game.

On larger established companies then the market gives a number or formula's to assess if a company is over or undervalued (PER etc) which I am sure you are now familiar with.

The thing about using fundamental analysis is that it is always out of date relative to the SP. For instance: a company release their lates results, which are likely to be 3 months old, so the market reacts to these figures to make assumptions what the future months will bring.

As this is an opinion and not a fact you end up with the SP moving about depending what the majority think/guess will most likely take place.

This is how we all make money. If it was guaranteed as to what was going to happen then the price would reflect that and there would be no market.

Companies like CPX offer huge potential so normally the SP vale will run quite a way ahead of the actual reality of the companies finance. This means they are very high risk as any set back will most likely cause a sharp downward re-rate on the SP.

The biggest lesson I have learned is that for all the research you do, you actually have no idea whats going on behind the scenes.

If you think this Super Capacitor market is ripe to develop quickly, it would be sensible to buy into as many companies doing the same thing as you can rather than gambling on your choice of one being able to deliver the Golden Egg,

The lessons which again I am sure you have read about really are relevant:

Never, ever, ever, bet more than you can COMFORTABLY afford to lose. Have a broad portfolio.

Capital preservation is key.

Have a plan. Decide what price you are prepared to pay to buy the stock and before you do, have 2 exit prices: 1 what price you sell at if all goes well and the other what price you will sell at if it price goes down. And also have a time line of expectation of the positive outcome.

(Imo, If you can't answer these questions in your own mind then you won't be able to react to developments in the company, good or bad.and speed in deciding what to do in companies like this as news breaks, tends to be key in both maximising gains and minimising losses.)

Thanks for the comment Deep, that was kind of you.

Fingers crossed we all get our rewards on this one.

Rog: "he failed to mention that there are risks in every share even in the FT100 None are any different especially in the prospecting game. (Not a dig Wyn, just reading your words)"

No offence taken, and I completely agree, even the 100's can trip you up (Who knew BP were cutting corners on safety on their rigs and that came very, very close to bankrupting the company, until AFTER the event.).

I suggested in my post a broad portfolio and again to be fair while 100's still offer risk it is less likely they will actually go bust and the individual lose all their money.

I can't believe I am the only one but maybe I am, but I look at the downside in as much or even more detail than the upside when deciding to have a punt. That way I get a better view as to what amount of money to risk.

I do take a fair bit of stick here (LSE) but to me that says more about my critics than me.

For instance when we buy a house don't we get a surveyors report so as to know if there are any hidden defects we are not aware of? Why do we that? Because we cant afford to make a mistake because of the costs involved. Why would you do it any differently when buying into a stock?

(There is a reason why most PI's lose more often than they win.)

Manifesto, there was a time when this stock was a slam dunk at about 22p per share and then failed. So a few people on this BB with experience in exploration companies suggested (I am sure in good faith), to buy into a company called ADV.to get back their losses as this was much much lower risk and almost guaranteed success.

Their business plan was to buy the rights to old abandoned oil wells in the sea. These were 20 odd years old and still could have a lot of oil extracted using today's technology which wasn't available then, hence being abandoned at the time as being no longer commercial.

What could go wrong. They already knew there was oil where they were drilling, so no hit and miss. The sea was relatively shallow and benign. The BoD's were all ex BP or Industry heavyweights. There was simply no risk and guaranteed to multibag

While the were drilling the CEO declared he was already putting the champagne on Ice.

You can imagine what the LSE BB was like!

Anyway, turns out there was very little oil after all, and they went bust.

All I was doing was to highlight that we never have the full picture and the risks are high. It did not seem to me that Grov was looking at the other side of the coin as intently as the picture he had already in his mind.

Each to his own.

Hi Moors,

Its absolutely down to the individual to decide what they want to do, when and why and how much to spend, and what risk to take etc. Not a problem with any of that.

It just seems for a newbie with only a track record of failure to average down on their next disastrous purchase, suggests to me a typical mindset of how so many PI's lose at this game. And as he was asking for advice I thought I would chip in.

Hi Baron, does this include tax on any profits made?

(A bit like our govt taxing fuel as a special case and then charging corp tax as well and thats before we look at windfall taxes.)

Any chance there could be a coup and it be nationalised? or just the govt changes its mind?

Just playing devils advocate.

If it is so obvious that this could be worth 10-20p a share it would not be valued at 1.4p. Thats the market shouting at all of us what the risk is.

here's things we don't know:

Will there be another cash raise and at what cost (dilution)?

What will the commercial return be in terms of flow rates and pressure?

Will the cost of helium fall on this commercial discovery making prices lower and therefore expected profits lower than the guesses here so far?

What percentage will the Tanzania Govt want for allowing HE1 to mine this?

What time frame will it be before profit is made?

How many more drills do we want to make on top of the made up figure of £50m to set up a plant. Where is this money to come from?

Will HE1 be bought out way before the reward is given back to shareholders for the risk they took?

You pays your money and all that, but all stock picking is a risk as in fact we have no idea what is going on behind the scenes, so it comes down to the old, oft repeated tips of, never bet more than you can COMFORTABLY afford to lose. Have a broad as possible Portfolio and have patience.

It is surprisingly easy to get rich slowly but very hard to get rich quickly, yet most concentrate their energies on the latter rather than the former.