Member Info for wyndrum

Why, if this is proven beyond all reasonable measure that it is safe, then as Dr Tap said it would become the standard overnight?

Forget if it helps efficacy or not. Just being safe surely is enough.

So whats left to prove just to use it with Dox right now while more trials carry on.?

What am I missing?

Is it just the number of patients it has been trialled on and its not enough?

"I suggest sticking to a savings account if you find AIM a bit edgy."

I am not sure going from one end of the investment spectrum to the other is necessary, but as you correctly point out Aim is a less regulated platform, so stock holders should not complain about that lack of regulation.

Also again as you say, AIm was introduced to allow high risk start ups to access money/funds to the point of destruction.

So it seems to me to be a particularly unsuitable platform for LTH who "expect" a return on their investment.

The key (if there is one), is to buy into these high risk stocks for the long term, if you think there will be no more cash raises. That should protect the downside and therefore only leave upside and also the time to the upside should also be reduced. It removes hopefully some of the risk too.

Pd: "I share your feelings of an aim trader, we receive great news and wait patiently for an upward trajectory. It’s just a matter of time."

Here's the thing though.

This stock will still be on Aim, so what news do you expect to move the SP. Is it not at least a possibility that after 3 years of patient trials and with the the very latest updated data the SP falls thatthe market is not as impressed or as confident as you?

This is important, I think, because if the problem is incorrectly diagnosed, then the wrong solution will be used.

Two things I guess, if AIM, as a market is an impossible forum to value stocks on, (for whatever reason), then why would any (long term) investor put money in an AIM stock?

If AIM isn't the problem, then what else could be "supressing" the SP against your valuation judgement?

So my post is the only one deleted in this thread.

Nothing contentious rude or in any way breaking of any guideline.

Last time I saw it it was 7 recs.

What individuals are so worried by someone they think qualifies as the village idiot here?

Clearly this constant deleting of my posts particularly shows a much more insidious side of this BB.

The pathetic element of this action is that NOTHING here affects the SP.

Remember last week, Myles great researched ramp on AVCT when the SP was 75p? Made no difference to the sp.

Grow up.

JM,

The market reads RNS's. If this data is RNS worthy then ergo it will be reacted to by the market.

The SP always tells the story. (I grant you that can be in hindsight but nevertheless as the LFT progressed and various milestones were met so the SP increased to 4 times the level it is now. So AIM or not, it will react, don't you think?

If the data update is as good as some here believe you don't think the SP will move up tomorrow?

None of us can predict what will happen so this is just an snapshot of our expectation.

Given some here believe this to be fantastic confirmation that means the SP should rise pretty substantially. I guess (20% plus?)

It will be interesting to see how the market does react tomorrow and early next week to this news.

(There is no side to this by the way, so please don't waste posts saying I have any ulterior motive by asking this question..)

I genuinely think it will be indicative of how well the trial is going.

Lots here are pouring over the data but as always its partial and leaves room for plenty of assumptions that can't all be valid.

We need to wait ultimately for CC to put it all in a clearer context, but given the market actually isn't as thick as mince, I think the SP will focus one way or the other this new data and react accordingly.

I think it may be muted if no RNS as no RNS would suggest there is not much or enough new data to officially update the market on. So I think an RNS will have to drop tomorrow too.

(fwiw, I think the market and BP in fact are much more risk averse then almost all here.)

The market just has advantage of being less emotional and is better at timing entry and exit than PI's.

As an example many PI's will say words to the effect of: "when this opens monday you won't be able to get in. You will be priced out .."etc etc. Which is cobblers of course, all they are saying that on new data which continues to de-risk the stock so the price rises, but at that at stage some II's are much happier to commit funds.

I think this is because Pi's are generally not very good at any type of risk reward analysis and typically over commit once emotionally involved. (Emotions being greed and fear which brings us back to gambling but lets not go there)

Anyway. I expect/hope for an RNS so the SP will move towards breaking the 6 month high of 82p but ultimately getting to around 100p mark by oct 1st

Calm down Alex, You choose the words to paint a picture of me that I never said, I was simply pointing that out.

You trade how you like.

I have a (pretty straight forward) method that works well for me, but I find volume to be too unreliable as an indictor to consistently profit from. (If it was an index then that might be different if the time frame was in minutes)

But each to his own.

As you know you need volatile, large market caps with high volume with thight spreads that are easy to get in and out of, to increase the odds of making profitable decisions if trading using charts and indicators.

Most aim stocks don't get close to those criteria. Or do you think they do?

Alex, I have never, ever professed to be a hotshot at anything. Those were your words not mine.

I have only ever said that I trade in (most) stocks rather than trade them with the exception of larger mk cap companies such as a few ftse 100's for their divs.

In the meantime movements on volumes and the relationship between buys and sells in AIM stock and indeed most stocks is and has always been blurred.

Often large buys and sells are not even disclosed until the next day. So anyone who makes any trading judgement on the validity and accuracy of volume and buy to sell ratios on any aim stock is never going to be working on reliable info.

It is somewhat strange you posted what you did when you look at the volume and market cap of this stock (and most other aim stocks.)

And don't worry, I won't be crying over anything to do with my trading, good or bad.

You get quoted a price to buy, you either accept it or you don't.

Who cares how it is recorded

what difference does it make?

what difference has it ever made?

What difference will it ever make?

Not quite gj, its something but there has hardly been any move since the news was announced so its too small a rise to read anything into it, for me at least.

its currently in a trading range between 82.5p and 57p, a break out would be a much more positive sign.

Might get interesting now its above 23p.....

fingers crossed

Perhaps ice, the FDA were not impressed enough with the results from 3WD and asked for 2WD?

Had you considered that? Or, are you assuming they were SO impressed with 3WD that they then just asked for 2WD to see if it was even better?

I don't know the answers to any of this but my assumption is based on the length of time taken thus far, coupled with the exit of the founding CEO, this has not been plain sailing as many here seem to think.

Bf, well, not really, we are still on P1a. If anything there are indications there will be P3 that was not forecast originally.

I do accept that there has been a lot of data now that on the face of it is very positive (thats why I stick with this), however there are. i think, 2 reasons why this has gone way, way over time and thats because either the results have been so exceptional or, there have been unexpected outcomes that have meant that this part of the trial needs to be continued to iron these anomolies out.

I think it is the latter. only because if it was the former you would go to efficacy before now and simply move this along asap.

I get the argument you might go to 2wd to improve efficacy first, but if the results had already been exceptional and proved safety and through that efficacy to some extent (which has already been reported), then I can't see why a 12 month projected P1a should be 3 years plus.

Anyway, (although I have previously thought this), by the 1st of October it should pretty clear as to where we are.

Pops, an RSI between 20-80 is just noise and is no reliable indicator as to what the next move will be.

All it says is there is room within the current trend for more movement. Given the trend is down at the moment all you can say about the RSI presently, is there is plenty of room for further falls before deciding it is over sold.

"Avacta will become a multi billion pound company or be taken over given very attractive rewards to anyone lucky enough to be holding at the time that red dot comes. I know I definitely will be as will anyone who has done a iota of research into this and understand it"

So the market and all the contacts that AVCT have have not researched this company?

AVCT have never released a misleading RNS?

Its just your opinion, but your assumptions (and research) are based on partial knowledge that AVCT choose to release.

You may turn out to be correct but equally, you may not. Did you ever guess (through all your research and what AVCT said), 3 years and counting AVCT would still be on the very first part of the trial and that the founder would leave months before the success you expect will be announced?

I mention this only to highlight your (and all of us), lack of knowing what is occurring at any given time.

I understand your pov I just think the reason you have come to your unequivocal opinion is flawed.

The problem Mowzer that you are one of many that are so emotionally wrapped up in this stock you cannot be objective and that any expression of doubt is simply ignored under the pretence of another agenda at work.

The proof of this is the performance of the stock.

If you were right in your analysis then the stock would not be priced where it is now. Ergo the questioning of what AVCT say and then looking at alternative meanings to their historical ambiguous messaging from what you dismiss as FUD has proved to be correct and your view, wrong.

But again, you have been too small-minded and blinkered to accept this factual reality. Your knee-jerk reaction to any post you disagree with is not to discuss the different pov's but simply to characterise the poster in a negative personal light so as to hope that then means their post has no merit.

Not the best strategy to become a better investor imo.

If you could open your mind just a scintilla Tim, you might acknowledge given the very different views from just the majority of posters who only see a positive outcome, that it clearly shows the point I was trying to highlight yesterday that we simply don't know where AVCT are or what they are trying to do other than the very broadest terms.

Hence the divergence of views. This is not fud, its not negative it is simply highlighting a fact.

Hopefully by the end of this month with both the results and the update there will be much more clarity for investors to make a more informed judgement on their holding.

Pops, as the RSI is a charting indicator at 54 it just means it has room to rise and room to fall.

It needs to be in over-sold ( 80 ) to be meaningful.

Cheers

This may well come good but we still haven't even started the efficacy yet!

AVCT are testing 2wd on what..6 patients in total?

The more time it takes to assure safety simply highlights to me that this is still a long way from being tested on large numbers to get to production.

We all understand that this is complex potentially ground breaking stuff. Most, if not all of us neither have enough info from the company or the skill sets to understand what is being discussed and the problems to overcome. There is a reason why the best and brightest in BP have not cracked this yet. (Although now vaccines seem increasingly the direction of travel, so who knows.)

(how long has the FDA been fast tracking this? How long will it be before a decision?

Sorry about all these questions but these are the things that many here don't question and (certainly never answer)

and seem to assume that this is a slam dunk, when in fact it has more chance of being an also-run than of success.

(Why do you think AS bought the DX companies? could it have been an insurance that TX was not going as well as expected?)

Anyway as I always say, as long as you can comfortably afford any loss that may unexpectedly occur then it becomes irrelevant, but reading the posts here over the last couple of months it still does not entertain contrary views even though the historical evidence of AIM companies generally and AVCT in particular disappoint more often than satisfy.

I hope this is the exception

Alan, fwiw, always understand charting is just a graphical representation of crowd behaviour. The forecasting of how events will unfold is based on the most likely outcome rather than any certainty of future price moves. (Disclaimer: I have not seen the "saint Charts" vid.)

It works best over short time frames (minutes to a few days. And ideally for heavily traded, volatile, large cap stocks.

The longer you look ahead the greater chance of different out comes. (a bit like accurately forecasting the weather)

CPX right now has fallen to a key support area. It now has 2 options (actually it always has 2 options), eith rebound and go up or fall below the support.

Chartists have a choice, buy on the support hoping it wont drop further but be prepared to sell as soon as it drops below 20p, or wait till it breaks and holds above 23p (so buy when it is 24p).

What a true chartist does not care about is the company. The chances of it moving up or down are predicated on the previous crowd behaviour of buys and sells.

Right now there is no sign of a reversal to indicate it will stay above the support. So the risk averse will wait for 24p before committing.

Patience and discipline are 2 key skills to learn if using charts. The other one is never to be emotional in your decision making. So never, ever, bet what can't COMFORTABLY afford to loose.

Also AIM stocks rarely meet the criteria for charts to be accurate (enough) to constantly profit from them, although so many PI's gamble now that the volatility is often there. So be careful. (imo dyor etc etc)