Member Info for wyndrum

Biggi,

It might appear to some or even many here to be condescending, but nevertheless fear and greed are two of the most powerful emotions humans have and in the context of stocks and shares it leads to many over committing.

Its the greed of abnormal returns that attract them to these high risk stocks. Then you have BB's saying in effect that every misstep along the way is basically the market being manipulated or just wrong and only the few here recognise the rewards to come.

Take the poster Sujood, still gets lots of recs but has only ever told people to stay strong, don't sell, but more. yet he has been wrong for years. So why does he get so many recs? why is he seen as a bit of light relief.

People will believe what they want to hear.

All I try to do is remind people is firstly, never over commit to any any stock, so that should the worse happen it makes no difference to their life.

And secondly, a much less emotional and therefore objective view should be taken esp. in this field.

a 50p raise that was so cheap, so under estimating the value of the company ,and now what 6 months on, with more great updates, the SP is back to that "disastrous" raise price.

How do some here react to these facts. They get mine other posts deleted and removed.

These BB really are very harmful to most here imo.

The well researched" and "well informed" are nothing of the sort. They have no idea whats going on.

Just be aware its much more of a crap shoot then many here will acknowledge as they will have found out with SYN, ODX Deepverge , AGL and you can add AVCT, to name just a few that many here too will have held at some time that have contradicted what their CEO's would have had you believe at the time.

You are being deliberately obtuse Ice.

The point being clearly made is that there is no such thing as a certainty.

You believe the science is beyond reproach and as a result funding will never be a problem.

The same argument was with Sirus. The potash was such a valuable resource and was proven to be there so funding would never be a problem.

ADV, with their drilling old disused oil wells with plenty of oil left in them knew exactly where they were. What could go wrong.

AVCT, LFT best test in the world, turns out it had an antibody in it.

Aim is absolutely full of people, like many here, on different BB's saying this is the best one to be in.....can't fail, ...and yet......

"Absolutely, the grand pipeline reveal will do nothing for market sentiment unless it comes with accompanying finance."

"Yep, @Tim, @gmcc, et al (not ‘green box' people, obviously) – ‘a Sustainable Funding Strategy’ is now the key."

Yes, obviously not the green boxes, who realised this over 12 months ago.....

"Absolutely, the grand pipeline reveal will do nothing for market sentiment unless it comes with accompanying finance."

hmm... so it was about the money after all...

well, I wish someone had highlighted that awhile ago... Still, that's the benefit at laughing at all the "green boxes"

"Only share I am 'up' in is GDR. I have no feelings for it, sadly only a small amount of it"

Fwiw, I don't get hung up on how much I have invested, just percentage loss or gain.

But yes, its a great help not to care about the result.

It allows for a plan to be thought about and applied: What price do I want to pay and why that price? what price will I sell at, either to bank a profit or cut a loss.

Once you "care" about a stock then it becomes much harder to be keep to the plan.

I think a good example might be: You have an amount in a savings account paying 5%, then that rate expires to a flat 1%.

Most people would have no compunction or loyalty to the bank and simply move their money to a new, better, higher rate savings account.

I think buying and selling stocks should employ that same mentality.

Hi D,

well, its a bit up and down at the moment but BAB and WOSG have proved continually fruitful for smaller 5-10% profit in and out trades.

Its the big companies that are proving popular at the moment but that reflects the lack of interest in most Aim stocks.

I am just waiting for AVCT to update on Monday. If that does not stem the tide then I think after all this time the already reduced core holding will go and it may (or may not) just be worth trying to get a quick profit out of any likely swings.

It just doesn't make any sense.

It could be that the market really is as thick as mince and it is a genuine lack of understanding that has caused the price action, but that, while possible for me, is the least likely explanation.

Ergo it has to be something else.

Anyway, fingers crossed this is just a bit of market nerves ahead of Monday and all will come good.

Phil,

"Speed to market? DOX has been standard of care for STS for 50 years for a reason. "

So was the horse and carriage (but longer) until the car was invented.

Say its 3 years away from coming to market. then with AI how long does it take to produce vaccines? So BP pays Billions for Dox precision, a market that is 1.3b large (but thats not profit remember), and maybe, just maybe is starting to be over taken. With a declining market for it, what return and when will they get for their purchase?

This is just guesswork but I am just highlighting that AVCT (and every other small Bio Pharma) is working against the clock and its expensive and its technically difficult and at any time all that work can be made redundant by other advances. There is a reason why so many fail.

Annecdotally my Brother in law was a your surgeon in the 80's when Aids became a big thing and I remember talking to him and he said there would never be a cure because its impossible to even identify the virus, so you had to see if you were HIV positive to suggest you had the virus.

Look at what can be now to combat it.

Times change.

Ice, I didn't bother to read it. I am confident in my own knowledge of the pros and cons of this stock to take a dispassionate view on it.

I have said that the update on the 30th is very important.

I have banged on for a long time and TVC also highlighted today, BP seems to be interested in different ways of curing various types of cancer that bypasses chemo drugs altogether. Time is critical. Its starting to feel to me a bit like the LFT, where there is a window for these developments and speed to market is essential to maximise profit.

If there is yet more money to be raised because whether avct like it or not, they may have to take it themselves to market, then thats going to hurt the SP and indeed stretch timelines even further.

So again, I ask, if you were just being introduced to this stock would you rush to buy right now when you look at all the info, in the round?

I think the point that is ALWAYS over looked herein a sharp down turn, and the assumption its all devious market manipulation by a whole host of usual suspects, is that the market loves a bargain.

The fact is (what ever the volume), that when the SP falls buyers are not tempted to buy at these "bargain" prices.

The question is why not.

None of you seem to accept the risks involved in shorting a stock. Its never done on a whim. and also some small shorts are simply a hedge, which is prudent risk management.

There has been an interview with a bullish, confident CC and a recent poster update and since then the SP has collapsed.

Many here seem desperate to try to buy in at the bottom so as to maximise profit, but the decision to buy is not made (as far as I can see) with any rationale behind it, other than the SP is lower today than yesterday.

There seems a wilful ignorance, not to the risks of success or not which, I think most do acknowledge, even if maybe they think success is nailed on, but to the understanding of dilution and the actual desire of most investors to want to see a return on their capital within a rough timeline, and most of all capital preservation.

The upside is very woolly, (shorthand: Cure for cancer), but ignore the what could be described as a bit of a shambles of a company to date, if you look at the multitude of cash raises, dilution, DX valuation, Board members leaving, deal maker brought in, lack of deals, BP seemingly not interested etc etc.

So, on balance, if you did not know about AVCT but were told about it by a friend today and you did your own due diligence what it be a screaming buy today, right now?

What makes you think I did not sell when I made 10% profit?

"TVC. Utter nonsense!"

is it?

point 1 is a matter of opinion but a reasonable one I think. (think of the amount of raises over time and the missed timelines and a certain amount of message fatigue does set in.)

Point 2 is pretty accurate. There is a jekyll and hide element to AVCT. it is rated as though it will be successful yet grasping that success seems somewhat mirage-like.

point 3. paints a picture although a one sided one. But when you look at the lack of deals and milestone payments I am not sure it is utter nonsense to highlight this side of the coin which clearly indicates somewhat belatedly maybe it would be better to conserve cash rather than potentially waste it.

Point4 this has been highlighted already by many here, so again a fair observation

Point 5 is an opinion but I would suggest most here would agree with it.

Where I think you see it differently Ice, is that you have no time scale to this endeavour. Which is fine, thats up to you, but time is intimately entwined with success in this endeavour. Its not a case of, at some time AVCT have to deliver, it's a case of, if the money runs out at some stage it will not be possible to raise funds and then they get taken private for a pittance (assuming there are still people out there that believe in the tech.)

"Those sneaky Market Movers trying to con a few...Expect a drop tomorrow!"

Maybe, but more often than not false moves get sold down before the close of play as the ones that may have profited quickly take their profits rather than risk an overnight/next day low(er) opening,

As this has not happened this time I think there is better chance that we might get an RNS tomorrow.

Its all academic of course, as it will be what it will be come 8:00 tomorrow

Biggi,

I am just trying to find a connection between fantastic results and a never ending fall in the SP.

Something does not add up.

It could just be the money but it seems a little early to me for that to be the reason. I can see a write down on the value of the DX dept potentially being the problem. Or maybe its the next payment of the debt, but if it is in shares then it makes the last payment look odd, and if it is money again, can the accounts stand it or does it bring a raise closer? Is there to be a big raise to clear the debt and give away the DX division?

If its not any of the above that then we are back to the trial data.

If it really was so cut and dried why hasn't BP bought AVCT out? Goodness knows Hurst kept us up to date with much lesser companies (on the face of it) going for billions.

Anyway, the 30th will be instructive.

Oh for gods sake I can't be bothered to look at Apre's posting history.

he always posts derogatory things about my view. If you can be bothered, you look up his posting history to see who is right or wrong.

It kills me the accusations you hurl at me when the stock does all the talking on its own. But hey ho.

(And as for Harl, please before you all giggle with glee at my loss, read the RNS's from about 12 months ago onwards, to see how disgracefully shareholders were lied to by the BoD.

I however I said on that BB a few times that this (Harl) stock was priced to fail by the market which influenced my scale of holding.

Is said it was my opinion to refute the equally imo ludicrous idea that a poor brokers note that was then contradicted with an accurate update, causing a rally in the SP, is the cause for the continuing and long term decline in the SP.

Your failure to ever acknowledge the chance of failure oi this enterprise on a company that has only ever failed to commercialise its tech is again imo, more disgraceful.

But you always assume you are correct with a tone that to me comes across as very rightious even though every metric has contradicted your view for years.

Hmm.... whole thread gone....

Ice, cherry picking?

You make general statements. I picked one that was so inaccurate as to break down your logic. What else do you want exqusite sensitive best test in the world? don't worry about finance laugh?, any forecast of a timeline which have all been missed. 5 years of commercial LFT tests? Antibody being present in the LFT?

How many times do you have to be misled before you become wary of what the company tells you?

The problem Ice, with your certainty about AVCT statements is that even they can be surprised.

For instance DE4 was meant to be the end of P1a back in Dec 22. However much to everyones surprise and unexpectedly good news, it was extend by a further 20 months with another cash raise in between at 50p

So its not FUD, its factual history that future-gazing even by the company that has all the detail at its beck and call, can still be hopelessly wrong in their forecast.

In truth Alderban, I have not seen enough of CC to form an opinion of her yet.

To be fair there was nothing but good news while AS was in charge too. (Which is why I am holding fire on CC.)

My experience of unfounded shorting is that it can only be effective for a short time. It can't run weeks or months. Simply because it is easy to see where and why it is unjustified and then it becomes a bargain and everyone piles in.

There is too much history of failed commerciality and failed timelines to give many a real vote of confidence presently.

If it was as clear cut as the results seem to suggest then it would have been bought out months or a year ago.

As it is, all of a sudden we are talking about how exciting the pipeline is. I thought that would have been implicit once AVA6k was completed.

There is an argument that using DOX for this long which is an old drug comparatively, has wasted time and money on not doing it with something even more effective, which why the pipeline comment was introduced?

However, thats what you get with AVCt, tit-bits, hints, wink wink etc and it is up to the individual to guess what is actually going on. (imo dyor etc)

I hope CC will be better. We will soon see.

Alderban, if you seriously think TW can supress a potential multi billion £ tech on nothing but malicious lies over this amount of time then I believe you are mistaken.

Most people won't have heard of TW.

Most people who react to this type of BB don't have the funds to influence the SP

The cause is the constant missed time lines and corresponding cash burn causing dilution.

Investors want to predict (within reason) their return. They can't do that if they have no idea what the future funding is going to be.

The goalposts have kept moving further and further back.

As a result there are a lot of people now, sitting on their hands and are very content to miss the first wave of an SP re-rate if this gets de-risked enough for them to take a more balanced view on any investment in AVCT.

The fact that AS could not get more than 50p on the last cash raise is indicative of what went before, not the last cash raise as such.