Member Info for wyndrum

Hurt: "As I have always said back in days of 18p and fantastic returns, Avacta ( with an office in Cambridge back then) will be the best thing out of Cambridge since Arm Holdings."

Well, at 18p it was just about the all time low. (10 years ago it was 78p.)

It was basically priced to fail in those days having delivered nothing and was only saved by covid with an opportune cash raise at 120p.

There was no logical investment case at 18p. (Yes it was a an extremely high risk punt/gamble, but thats not the same as making an investment case.)

Also as usual, your forecasts, (which are baseless as you have no idea who is buying or selling or where they are from) have failed to materialise

FWIW, Louise is looking into it. Slow going though. Might be, nothing can be done?

Sorry Looyd, I missed your post,

No I have no knowledge or particular ibetter insight than anyone else as to how everything will pan out. but I do see Bab as having a very good chance of picking up extra work due to Harl's demise.

I can see Bab byuing some or all of the business due to the contracts in hand however, I think it depends on how these contracts are written.

My gut feel on Harl was that they won the business by ultimately having to slim a profit margin, so maybe no one wants to take these contracts on without re-negotiation?

In any event Bab looks a safe long term bet in the current climate.

Stop worrying about me Watching, or at least keep up. My latest trade is over 10% up.

Where was it harsh? It was factual. There is a difference.

There is no grudge,

I took n out a position last friday, Currently I am in profit.

I simply responded to the criticism I took for being too simplistic which was based on 3 x IF's by the poster which by definition mean that any on none may or indeed may not, happen.

You are far too closed minded ever now to read any post of mine through any objective light.

As a result, there is nothing at any stage I will ever post, whatever its content that you won't see in "negative" light.

I am sorry that for whatever reason I got under your skin. I have tried apologising to you previously, but I am all to aware that it falls on deaf ears.

It really is more your problem than mine.

" The science and the money are inextricably linked - and so long as the science looks good, stays on track and isn't superseded by other tech, there will be investment."

Just picked this up and Touk makes my point.

3 "ifs" that take time to bear fruit.

The very fact that to date AVCT have not been bought out might suggest the science still has a long way to go yet to interest BP enough to bid. In which case where does the money come from.

That was my point.

I try to make my point with a broad brush way because NONE of us actually have a clue as to what is going on.

And again as always (although this morning maybe the market will look at AVCT differently), why was the last last raise at 50p?

And its not obfuscating to actually clarify what I have said.

The very bottom line as of my post last night that AVCT has in fact failed to commercialise any tech thus far. It has missed every single self imposed deadline. It has unexpectedly raised cash and diluted the stock with the result that the stock is where it is

Time, money and a product is pretty much the 3 components to juggle around and get the right balance for investors to make money.

To date you can decide how successful AVCT have been over the last decade or more.

Forgive me if that was too simple for you.

Avct, I think the whole point of the listing will be to do an IPO so as to raise money.

Yeboa: ..."and admit you were wrong and Wyn for that matter, cos i no i will if it goes tits up , which i have no doubt it wont !"

When I have I ever said it will fail? ever?

All I have ever done is voice my "concerns" when new news comes out that contradicts previous news.

I also highlight that for instance, maybe its about the money and not the science, and therefore maybe the SP will fall. And pretty much I have been right.

And thats basically the problem here for some it seems to me. You get so wrapped up emotionally with the company that you then invent or imagine a more dramatic conclusion than I (in this example ever said).

I have said that if they keep trying to re-finance because of time slippages for instance, then there is always the possibility they could go into administration if the appetite from share holders for continuing delays and dilution eventually ran out.

I am sure it would then be bought out cheaply by someone and the tech would still come to market but at current share holders expense.

Currently that does not seem to be an issue but remember the last round of financing had to be at just 50p per share as it is still today. So the possibility is not as far fetched imo as you might infer.

However that is not saying it will fail but simply highlighting that its not about the science its about the money.

But many here still don't seem to grasp the relationship between the science and cash flow to run a company.

Many, many "good" profitable companies go bust due to cashflow.

Do I think this will happen to AVCT? I don't know, but I am aware its a possibility. How much of a possibility? I don't know that either, but right now with current cash and the likely sale of DX that this is not an immediate issue so I am happy to wait to see the next bout of news released. But for me its not a done deal and I take nothing for granted.

And I freely and always have admitted, I take a shorter term view than many here, but really for all the reasons above.

I don't know enough of whats going on both in how the company is run and the real, actual state of the trial, to be confident of the next 5 years, say.

"With or without RNS at AM, could be at midday, the bagel effect, price should kick off at 57-9, with an easy further 10%, before size buyers take over and the old phrase “ prize and size pls” will be used a lot tomorrow."

and if its not?

Al, my take was that the previous results said there would be no need for any more cash calls and that it would be cash positive. But ABDX did lose money with only Q4 generating a profit. (This on top of a surprise £5,5m cash raise after all.)

These results have only re-stated that they expect to be cash positive this year so no real progress. This suggests sales were not quite as good as forecast or market expectations. This then undermines future projections, which in turn re-ignites the concern over future dilution.

As everyone here (I think) agrees, the foundations at ABDX look very good but what is also clear is that breaking into this huge market is also very hard with present suppliers not relinquishing market share easily at all.

(imo dyor etc)

CH I posted to say if it broke above 51p there were 2 likely options.

It would confirm a breakout which would likely draw in more buyers but if that rise was not supported by new news then it would probably cause a sell off to bank the quick profit that may have occurred.

However if then new news is released that would sustain the rise and a new trading range would develop.

(That was my conclusion when I bought last Friday)

hardly worth a deletion imo, but there you are.

Chris I do operate with stops so generally I do make a profit and If I get it wrong then I get out with a relatively small loss.

But like I say, I will always be believed on a bad call, but never a correct one. And thats ok, makes not an iota of difference to me. (or indeed you)

Hard to call Harrogate, it would certainly be a break out over the most recent SP decline, but the other side of the coin is that there have been many false break outs before.

So maybe 2 ways this could go: breaks out at 52p, brings in more buys and goes up further. Then if no news is forthcoming there will be quick profit taking and we are back to square one.

Or, there is supporting new news and the rise is underpinned by it and a new trading range is established.

I took a punt last week that the latter will happen. ( buy price 49.8p)

(Its ok, so as to save some the time to post: I understand that if the SP goes down I am telling the truth, and that if it goes up I am just a fantasist.)

Presumably once the ML is given then we get the feasibility study and again presumably, with that, how the 20-30 drills will be financed.

The price will (it always does with any small cap), drift lower on no news.

Patience, as you say....

Fair point SI

"One aspect beyond the company's control is market sentiment, ...."

I am not so sure about that. Every Tweet, (X) RNS ,interview & Linkedin entry etc, is trying to influence market sentiment.

The fact is the market, over a period of time, is only ever influenced by money. (imo)

Goldie: "It’s not years as the trolls say. It’ll be months, if not weeks.. Remember why you invested in the first place, don’t feed the trolls."

so months/weeks.

So give me a deadline. Are you thinking end of the year? that will be months and weeks? or longer? Or are you just guessing? and if you are, (which you are), why post a guess?

Obviously you are quite right Roger.

What it also highlights is the rapid movement this stock can generate on the back of good (or perceived good) news.

The market always wants to try and get ahead of SP appreciation wo when a spike happens the expectation is that there will be further positive news justifying the rapid rise.

This has not happened in this case, so it has fallen back.

Due to modern technology this format (stock investing) is a magnet for gamblers now causing wild swings with emotionally driven people.

Just anew fact of life to deal with but the effect is that it is much harder to profit from small companies such as CPX because the wild swings can cause high capital loss in a heart beat, which in turn makes it harder for the LTH to stay the course if they have mistimed entry.

There is an increasing argument to go over to large caps as an investor as the losses now on aim, as an example, are too often catastrophic.

Just googled this:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/062215/debunking-8-myths-about-technical-analysis.asp

Problem is muck, there is not that much left in the coffers and if they run at a loss for the next 6 months then a cash raise might come again.

I think now the odds are, albeit slight, that that will happen.

We need as shareholders to see some pretty immediate return for that £5m raise. Otherwise that £5m would last 2-3 years for the sales pipleine to come on line and remove this constant round of raises to be put on the back burner.

Now it feels we are back on the tight rope and one cancelled contract or stall in new orders could precipitate another ask for a handout.

(I just thought that was all behind ABDX now based on what they said last year, which why it feels disappointing to me.)