Member Info for wyndrum

1'll do what I want Ice.

But its apparent to me given the what I thought was areal leap forward in last weeks RNS has had a negative effect on the SP.

Therefore i explore reasons why this might be the case.

You are happy to sit on your hands and just see how this plans out. Good for you. But given that approach why don't you just go away instead, rather than telling me not to express my views as the landscape changes

Bella,

"When she says we are not doing deals - perhaps she means with new Partners...but an extension of an existing agreement with an existing partner could be possible.

or they are NOT doing any deals right now but have the potential of one or more in the offering based on P2 data and an MOU could be forthcoming on this basis from one or more."

or perhaps..... wait for it.... because no one wants to do a deal.

Her job is to maximise shareholder value. If she is in talks then she would say so. This would pump the SP. This would alert BP generally to a potential bidding war if the tech is seen to be as valuable as we think it is.

The argument that it is all top secret and about to break is something that has been mooted here for years and never materialised.

There is nothing detrimental in publicising any talks with any party. We are not in this to get a suitor in at a rock bottom price for them and their shareholders.

"CC has said they're not doing deals. They're generating interest by attending and presenting at conferences - but they're not doing deals. There's nothing more to discuss.

Oh, good grief Charlie Brown.....

This will hold true right up until she does a deal.......

This isn't a science project, its a PLC responsible to its shareholders. The SP is important, all the time, for all sorts of reasons.

We simply have no idea what is going on.. do you get that yet?

Chris, the SP has fallen 20% since the pipeline update and fallen since the presentation started.

The market seems to be saying it has ZERO interest in the tech (at this stage).

We all find it odd given what has been produced thus far so ergo, it must be something else.

If it is the money then the market I am guessing wants to know how is this pipeline to be funded? when will DX be sold and for how much. And what is going on with AVA6k.

Given this has been a recuring conversation here means these are all unknowns to everyone.

This uncertainty leads the market to default to a bear case.

Which is.:

Has P1b started? Is it on schedule or not? If not is their sufficient cash runway to finish P2?

How is the pipeline to be funded and how much is earmarked?

Are there any meaningful discussions going to JV these projects.?

Where is the DX sale? have there been any offers? when will it likely be off loaded? and for how much?

The thing is before you all go FUD mad, is that the BOD could answer all of these questions, whatever those answers are.

Everything hinges on P2 (efficacy). Its now the whole ballgame, (given all the data releases through 3 years plus of a safety trial have not reassured the market at all.)

So it would seem that the silence is a bit deafening on AVA6k as far as the market is concerned.

At best it has shelved this stock until some better data is released.

So imo the SP could easily and in fact now after last weeks good RNS and this presentation is more likely to carry on falling.

That was what I thought Ice and still do, however since then there has been a near on 20% fall in the SP. So my view was not shared by the wider market.

So clearly there is nothing short term to get excited about. BP still seem as disinterested as ever.

I don't know if you have noticed but the one, single theme that runs through AVCT is perpetually kicking the can down the road and to date never actually selling anything. And today seems another great example of it. Say the words " Breast cancer" and hope that generates a buzz....

Even the milestone payments seem to have dried up. (Do you think there is still research going on or maybe this has hit the AVCT cul-de-sac of non- commercial products?

Anyway, its what it is and I always have 2 options.

Today is likely to be overshadowed by the budget and given the backdrop I expect most UK markets to be subdued.

Always a chance of the doom and gloom being over done and a positive reaction but that seems less likely to me than the alternative.

As for AVCt the wheels turn ever more slowly with the future looking bright but its always the future. Just as AVA6k was meant to be delivering stella results by now (Has P1b started?) it does not get mentioned so much and now its all about 2nd gen years down the track. Ho hum

"My point being if DX is sold for £25 m we are fully funded for P2 unless of course it takes 3 years ."

or maybe £10m? or less? Or £40m or £50m? (My guess it's a lot lower than some here might expect otherwise I think the deal would have been done based on what CC has previously said, unless she has taken a leaf out of the AS playbook?

Thats the problem, as I often say.. We all have no idea what's actually going on.

Its when that really sinks in you realise that all the research in the world does not really help that much in getting the best returns from small companies like this.

23p is still (for me the big number to close above. This could be the first step on breaking the down trend though.

Even more reason not to "force" investment into potentially poor areas of return.

Its not complicated. Govt's should live within their means. All the time they don't it ultimately increases debt until one day it hits a tipping point. The UK is starting to approach that moment.

Govts of all stripes get caught up by doing ever more for people with the unintended consequence that the "people" then expect/demand more from the govt every time there is a hit to their personal circumstances. Which is the spiral the UK (and most western govts) are in.

"Unless we become less socialist (tax) and have a government willing to force pension funds to invest we are unfortunately doomed"

Somewhat contradictory Doggy?

If you believe in the free market then you should not need to "force" pension funds to put money where they otherwise would not do. Either UK companies will stand out or there will be better (international) places for funds to go to. (Don't forget this is the nations pension/retirement funds there end up playing with.)

It sounds like the tax rebate is crucial to the figures. So even with the improved sales revenue it looks like money is a big issue.

The extra month also gives time for the recent contract win to add further to forward indications as by the end of November, its 5 months of the current year.

So best guess, poor financial year but brighter start to 2025 with more likely than not RI or some form of "surprise" finance inflow to bolster cash flow. (imo dyor etc)

" I now believe it shouldn't be possible to take short positions in companies trying to save lives but that's probably a slightly biased narrative."

Say, the AVCT Trial fails and does not deliver improved outcomes? Then will that make it ok for any shorts that had taken place previously?

The bit that is always forgotten when we have this routine discussion is that a short, if initially successful reduces the SP. What effect do you think that has if the majority in the market think the SP is already a bargain? Don't we all top up? And if not, why not?

The BoD in RNS's can be as detailed as they like in the data they release. There never has to be any ambiguity in any statement. They can respond to questions that might arise that show the market has misunderstood or does not get it, in clarification weather on X or further RNS's or interviews.

When this doesn't happen, that's when the door is left open for some to say, "hold on, is this really as good as they are implying, but not actually saying?"

And the irony, I think in answer to Crowfoots, impassioned plea, is just look at AVCT's history here under AS.

Share holders were misled into assuming progress and imminent future income that never materialised. From funding to timelines to actual data. Partnerships and deals that were never done. Antibodies in tests etc etc etc.

Given that backdrop it is hardly surprising that some will take a risk to short this particular stock based on its own history, never mind the typical outcome of small BP stocks.

(And fwiw I still think this could be a hedge against a long position, which is why it never has been closed out yet.)

For instance say a PI here had over invested. Again for arguments sake, say, £50k and its taking longer than ever expected for the big return, and now is getting nervous that what if it fails, or even just a big dilution with even longer timelines projected?

A £2.5k short is placed so now in the very worst outcome, he/she will get back a lot of outlay and if AVCT really does deliver, Then the short can closed out when it is clear that its on its way.. (the rise in the £50k long takes care of the loss on the short).

But I imagine some here won't agree as they always want to be greedy to get the maximum gain they possibly can (whatever the risk) and to kid themselves and to any who will listen, they are the next WB, rather than taking a longer and more rounded view to investment.

yeboa i thought you were taking the **** as i posted my thoughts on the rns just before 8:00

"if we can filter the nonsense ..."

Then stop making pointless and invariably inaccurate, SP predictions

"Avacta don’t care about the SP or anything really. "

oh good grief.....

Its a business that at some stage has to deliver a profit. If it is to be bought out as a loss-making company then the buyer will take on that risk. The SP will be a determinate of the value of the company and any bid price

I don't really know hoe to break it to you but its probably the single most important thing to stock holders incl most importantly, II's and any future funding that may be required and certainly will be, if AVCT go it alone.

HL tend to be accurate when you actually deal so currently its got a sell price of 60p but it will give you 62p

I think it widens the spread when the volume starts picking up so they have some flexibility to match orders from Pi's

Obviously when it is vey fast moving they can't get always get an immediate execution price as per this morning and you have to keep pressing the re-quote button until their systems update/execute

It was hard topping up on HL so things look to be pretty fluid.

the general rule is not to buy in the first hour, but I think today rules are made to be broken.

Surely now the market must get it?

In the past I have been critical over timelines and by implication that inevitably leads to funding, and how is that to be achieved on the "how long is a piece of string" argument.

This would appear to take AVCT now to a different level?

The timeline thing is still there but this RNS must bring AVCT into much sharper focus for some sort of deal?

It would also (i think) allow a stronger prospectus for a successful Nasdaq listing if that is indeed what AVCT wish to do.

This to me is one of the best RNS's that AVCT have ever produced. (imo dyor etc)

10-12% move is hardly a mass sell, however, its not so much a mass sell per se, as any sell needs to find a buyer.

If the "market" thinks 49p say, is a TA target it might not want to buy at 55p 0r 54p etc in case it does start to fall further.

Then we are simply back to finding buyers for sellers.

Still, Yeboa will be constantly buying all the way, whenever it goes down and at any price that is below whatever the current price ever is, so nothing to worry about.

"Windy now saying it’s all duff because the market (cowboy AIM) all seeing and we wouldn’t be at this price if everything was going well "

I said nothing of the sort.

I was replying to being described as a dribbling moron and highlighting that the incompetent AS at raising cash at 50p was now with all the positive info and a new ceo to boot, has resulted in just a 7p SP increase perhaps supported my long standing view that there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge before this may or may not come good.