Member Info for wyndrum

Grov, you are new to investing, get bombed out on presumably one of your earliest/first goes at this game, and then promptly buy into a company that a family member has almost been completely wiped out on, that has only a track record of failure and constant dilution and is using a rig (at the time) that was not fit for purpose.

Good luck because I think that will be the only way you will succeed in this game.

Even if this comes good you show every sign that you will simply re-invest in another long shot until you lose it all unless you broaden your scope to less risky companies.

If you really want advice then don't use or frequent BB's. They do more harm than good to new investors. (imo dyor etc etc)

FG, give it a rest.

One, all firms are global. Parts are made and sourced all around the world, work forces are from all around the world.

Secondly £120m? so what, what was the profit margin? What if it cost £125m to meet the contract? Maybe thats why Harl got the contract in the first place, it was the cheapest but in fact, not profitable.

It is clear to me that there has been serious mismanagement of this company. It smells to me like a "Carillion" state of affairs

Bonne, I think you are missing the point. H&W was not a going concern. Supporting the loan would have still resulted in the company going bust. If it were any other case then of course the govt would have coughed up.

That's why JW was goonered straight away. His business model was unsustainable under any circumstance in its present form (imo)

Bonne, I think that the accounts are/were far far worse then we were led to believe and that a RI would have had to reveal this truth.

I am using this guess as a explanation of whey we are where we are.

It would explain the govt not supporting the loan, the lack of any buyers when trading, the chasing any and all other forms of yard usage and in fact the lack of won orders, the delays in producing figures and generally every missed target and timeline JW ever issued.

(I am beginning to think there might be a legal case for shareholders but the great cop-out is: who are you going to sue? and if they have no money to pay out should they lose, what's the point?)

Just my opinion etc etc

Grov, if you are new to investing I have no idea why you chose this stock other than you enjoy gambling?

Its the equivalent of passing your driving test and buying a Ferrari as your first car.

Don't be surprised if it ends in tears.

The only (really) long shot I see as any of us getting our money back is for the company to be bought out and the listing stays and everything is as it was before and the new owners either clear the debt of have the clout/where with all to refinance.

Being listed allows, going forward more free money to be raised via RI's etc if conditions allow.

The reason I even see this glimmer as a possibility is the market cap.

If approx £150-£200m clears all debts and allows a path through to profitability, then whats another £14.49m which is the current market cap?

The SP already reflects this as a bust company. If the new owner put this money behind Harl then the shares would massively rerate giving an immediate profit on any shares the new owners own.

Also At a £200m buy out, a £20m profit (which should be doable with no debt), is 10%: thats not a bad return in pretty short order when turning a company around.

The only flaw in my cunning plan is that It can probably do most of this without needing to stay listed.

Still like I say, thats the best case for us I can envisage..... but it is pretty remote.......(imo dyor etc)

Froggy, you (none of us) have any idea who is buying and selling, how long any stock has been held, and what the new holders timeline/plan is.

And ...who cares? it does not matter. For every buyer there is a seller.

On your logic traders will sell tomorrow forcing the price down 4%, so it must be investors who are buying. Why don't the investors buy today? Why are they waiting for tomorrow?

And I know you know too, but no one knows what will happen tomorrow.

I would expect this to be pretty volatile until EWT results. Some will be gambling on a good result, others will sell to protect profits or reduce risk if a bad result ensues.

Any company with huge potential gain like this is very high risk. Otherwise the market would already price this at 15p if it was convinced that EWT success was a slam dunk.

fwiw, my rule of thumb is for potential of a doubling of price I factor in a risk of 10. So if this could go to 15p, 10 x 10 is results in a 100-1 chance of it happening.

Its just this whole "if it falls its a traders fault", thing. It's lazy thinking which does not stand up to any analysis or logic.

Sorry its a bit of a rant, and its not you per se, its a recurring, common theme on so many boards which imo is unhelpful on any level of discussion or analysis

".there is a good chance it will be down 4% tomorrow due to all the day traders ......"

So by this logic: traders only ever sell, never buy....and "investors" only ever buy and never sell?

weird remark to make

1.46p is the magic number and it looks to be having a pretty close look now.

2.1P or thereabouts should this resistance be broken, is the next target. (IMO DYOR ETC)

Fwiw it is on a support price at 32p so there is a decent chance of a bounce up from here. However its been a recent chart of lower lows and lower highs, so its quite confused as to whats next.if it continues to fall then 27p is likely next.

being a holder I am probably in the grip of confirmation bias, but the price got pretty toppy recently on the RSI so had to unwind and did so initially very gradually.

It "feels" to me (confirmation bias), that those who wanted to sell are probably out and the otheres wanting an entry point or top up will see 32p as a good place.

Given there are always 2 options (it can either go up or down, and no one can predict the future), it becomes what the individual thinks is most likely. gla

The reason I asked was that the cash raise was for 2 drills. this one and "one" other, possibly to re-visit Tai-3.

It just seemed, having got down as far as we did, it would be a relatively cheap option to go another couple of hundred meters or so?

Anyway, thanks all for the updates.

Thanks strop, ( I thought it was mentioned as a bit more likely than not, just now looking like its kicked into the long grass?

Anyway it all hinges on EWT right now.

Been here quite a time Rich.

I'd be grateful if you didn't spread the poison of that BB to here please.

I may have lost track, but, I thought we were going to drill down tai-3 and finish that off?

Has that been mothballed as failed drill?

Cheers in advance

Sorry to say, but admin was/is always the most likely outcome.

They lost IM and they lost the loan support. It seems absolutely crystal clear that the contracts won do not have a sufficient margin to pay the overheads. ( imo....)

It also shows the media reports were correct when many lambasted them. Certainly the lesson that this shows is that you HAVE to pretty much disregard everything a CEO says that's positive for the future and if they should mention anything negative on the horizon, then multiply it by about 10. Then I think, you get a more accurate idea of whats likely to unfurl.

My mistake was thinking the political aspects would trump all (at least in the short term).

Oh well, on to the next one.

A close above 1.46p is, from a TA perspective, the magic number. gla

Thanks Nick,

I posted that I thought the sell off was the "missing" patent time lime forecast in the May update.

This (and the order) i think will reassure the market.

Chartwise: .41p is the high that needs to be broken but on this info I can see it coming quite quickly. That will put the mid .60's into play as a target. (imo dyor etc)

I think the downturn is because of this stated in the TU on the 7th May:

" the Company expects to announce further patents during the next three months."

Times up and no news. This always naturally and correctly upsets holders. Missed deadlines are always a red flag. How big the flag is another thing entirely and I am personally not overly concerned, given the other news in this time period to date,, but it does erode trust in the statements the BoD issue going forward. (imo dyor etc)

Because they need to see the size of the liabilities they are buying......

JH, I have no idea on timings but I do agree that LB's "mission" after what went before, is only to promise what she knows she can deliver and is therefore conservative in what she says and forecasts, so yes it does look like she is adhering to the

"under promise and over deliver scenario" adage