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503m likely a one off due to a looney era share award vesting

Oil up 2% for the day, IEA uplifted its 2026 forecast by 900k barrels - where is the supposed supply glut???

Think the big boy investors know the turnaround is coming thanks to the new CEO, Manifold is doing a proper chairman job it seems and managing shareholder expectations well. More than can be said for mr Lund

Back to UK shores shortly…. Enjoying the high 20c weather before I’m back in the UK however

What did I say about more write downs coming? Only difference is they’ve done it before the new CEO - smart from Manifold

I’d guess a high % of this is archea - absolute madness $4.1bn purchase (although I don’t know what the true price paid was). The owner must have been laughing to the bank when he heard that offer

It’s about removing the most powerful anti west regime in the Middle East and paving the way for more oil control, more control over China and more regional control for Israel.

I can’t see regime change in Iran tbf - it would be monumental and trump wont want to get dragged into a hot war with Iran.

US Economic tariffs, supporting Israeli strikes and then mediation via Saudi/Qatar much more likely

So limited exposure to Venezuela, how we keep it that way and pick up the upside in US trading and refining.

Happy bp isn’t on the list

1. We have more than enough projects to focus on

2. Venezuela will be a civil war crap shoot for years to come, US boots on ground is inevitable

3. Bp and new ceo needs to focus on right sizing the production ship before anything else

4. I don’t believe we play their today (or in Guyana) closest I think is T&T production

Not a surprise Shells trading was weak. There was little volatility in 4Q. Expect BP’s to be the same

Agree Leerex, it boggles the mind!

1. US and Israel bombing Iran

2. Israel bombing Qatar

3. Trump removing a head of state for oil

4. An oil blockade around Venezuela

5. China continuing to posture for Taiwan

6. No real progress in Russia Ukraine

7. US forces capturing a Russian oil tanker (today)

8. Increasing sanctions on Russia O&G

And Brent is still at $60?! Who’d be an oil investor 😂

Be interesting to see if the CFO is retained when the new CEO comes in.

Here’s hoping oil rises happy, but oil price market is notoriously fickle and has made me almost a perma bear over the last decade or so

My two cents:

Short term oil will dip as the market will price in more barrels at a point in time (>2 years away) and as the price is already low this will hit them further. US oil CO’s will benefit short term as they can drastically lower their production cost in Venezuela and offset any production losses in the US fields. Bp, as a uk company will take a hit short term hit with oil price weakening and not being first in line. I expect chevron and Exxon to rise on Monday

Long term: this means continued product for BP’s US refineries as US domestic production declines, and as bp run an integrated model, we can either place finished product in the market (trade it) or sell it via our network. BP’s trading arm is one of the largest in the US, so we’re perfectly positioned to take advantage of opportunities this creates

Lastly, this won’t be the end, regime change never goes smoothly and we could likely see a hot civil war with US boots on ground - at this point oil rises

Currently in a country that borders Venezuela

Park the clear hypocrisy of the trump administration for doing this, this is bearish oil price long term. More oil in an already lower price market. Only caveat is this can’t just be turned on overnight, you’d need $billions to repair and reactivate the Venezuelan oil industry - and the US O&G firms who would do the work would need US govt backing (financial and security) to do so. Long road if trump succeeds in regime change, but this will hit oil markets negatively on market open

Part of me thinks the old CEO and chairman didn’t even want to market Archea as the extent of the stated $4.1bn purchase price Looney paid will be laid bare and there’d be a write off in the $billions.

I can almost guarantee the new CEO comes in, installs a new CFO and takes the opportunity to wipe the deck clean and write down a whole host of equity valuations from the looney era

$8bn equity value which was at the low end of 8-12bn estimates.

Find the whole thing v strange

- why have bp retained 35%? That’s essentially admitting they didn’t want to really sell as it’s still a profit generating asset and will be for years to come. The $6bn contribution to balance sheet hasn’t moved the needle enough. They must be confident in lsbp value to not execute a full divestment

- Xmas eve announcement, really? No wonder there is no reaction on LSE open, no one is at their desk. You could have run the risk of a leak for another week and start 2026 off with news that can have a positive spin

- imo bp has never been weaker for a takeover (even vs 2q 26), they’ve now off balance sheeted the Castrol business and renewable plays, have a new board chair and leadership team into a bearish oil price environment. The hard work has now 75% been done and the share price hasn’t moved. Could be a very dangerous 1H for bp as a company next year

Rough guide any takeover is likely 20-40% more than current share price.

Then it gets v confusing about stock vs. Cash, given chevron and Exxon’s higher valuation multiples bp is EXTREMELY cheap for them to acquire on an all stock basis

Very much agree with this. Pretty soon bp will have a new CEO, chairman and I guess executive team. Whilst this newnesss is required, if makes a company naturally weaker. Elliot will be in prime position to push for a chop up and sell strategy which it wanted originally.

New chairman and CEO will likely make a mint for not much work and the UK becomes a lesser player on the international stage as a result.

Too doomsday? Maybe, but you can certainly see the dominoes falling into place for another firm to sweep in and pick bp up for pennies.

All we (minnow investors) can hope for is a premium purchase price

South America - me no hablo espanyol