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China won’t flood the market, if anything a nation will block exports before anything else

The EU do make me laugh, just read they will announce a release today of about 2m barrels per day… the supply gap is 5-10x that

They really are minnows in the world discussion

Brent’s at $109

Check Brent futures here

https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

WTI trading at $103+ as I type this - Brent could open near $110

The bp Share price has to start moving eventually - the narrative can and will aggressively flip soon

With a little push thanks to higher liquidity Brent could hit $100 on open tonight

It is a bit ridiculous for someone who’s only ceo experience is at wood side and who didn’t exactly oversee a positive share price story. But this is the value of senior exxon experience on your CV.

Meanwhile Kuwait just delivered force majeur on its oil sales - madness

Oil price is up +37% and bp is up 5.5% in the last month

There is going to be an almighty spike in O&G shares when people realise this isn’t over in the next week or two.

It’s physics

Part of me wonders if he’s letting the ex shell cfo go as he initially thought to replace the existing CFO but then changed his mind

Either that or the ex shell CFO has a better offer

Agree meoryou, but it’s hard to reconcile the 7% 3m price movement of bp against a 30$ increase in Brent

Im looking to sell down some tax free sharematch shares and get my funds out of ‘my own paper’ - which is why im dumbfounded at the price movement 😂

If a literal bombardment of the Hormuz strait doesn’t catapult this what will

And bp struggling to beach £5 - dumbfounded

I hope bp traders are having fun

Ironic that she’ll likely get her biggest pay cheque ever at bp the year she does the least work as she gets upto speed

Always makes me wonder, O&G companies live for the good times and barely survive the bad times (oil price work)

Brent grinding higher each day, hit 86$ this morning

I’ll continue to say the market is underpricing the oil risk here. Until the market represents this bp seems doomed to circle the 480s

Ok risk level is now showing in the spreads:

Oil spreads suggest a rally with no end in sight..... chart of the front-spread in Brent futures - often used by traders for supply tightness - is a stark vertical line, having surged more than 500% this week. Such a rapid steepening of backwardation, when prompt contracts command a premium, reflects the escalating threat to Middle East output, as exports freeze up and producers like Iraq being to shut-in production."

Harmonica, me or you,

Agree with your assessments, oil in storage is higher than usual but I think the risk premium the market is applying currently is a bit low. Especially with Shell and Qatar shutting down its LNG ops.

Maybe a few more days of burning through storage and the differentials start to become more apparent and the string runs out. Let’s see

It does blow my mind how little global oil equities have moved over the last week. Understand there’s plenty of liquids in storage around the world, but the reaction all seems a little too muted considering the Hormuz strait is effectively shut.

Maybe we get a delayed reaction, who knows but expected bp to move 5-10% higher on combined price pressure and future risk. Makes you wonder what the actual bull case is for this to hit mid £5s again.

(Bp up 5% for the month)

I’ve never seen anything like this

Even in the IEA’s most extreme case, the oil glut they stated was 4m barrels pd - no one believed this and a few weeks after publishing they downgraded it

Think oil and gas equities aren’t reacting as they wait and see what the US will do to offset higher oil prices - something Rubio stated yesterday, expect to see this news today

Not sure what they can do, US SPR is at record lows so even if they tap it to cover the next few weeks, longer term its structurally bullish

V weak open, oil up 4%, BP up 1.5%

Oil up 3% pre uk open