Member Info for WeirdPal

Any upstream folks break this one down for me?

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-progresses-plans-for-the-significant-bumerangue-discovery-offshore-brazil.html?utm_source=PC%26C%20%7C%20C%26EA%20%7C%20External%20%7C%20Global%20%7C%20bp.com%20news&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=15231254_%5B12180%5D%20bp%20progresses%20plans%20for%20the%20significant%20Bumerangue%20discovery%2C%20offshore%20Brazil&dm_i=1PGC,92GIE,1CWDU4,11X4PB,1

Oil prices and co’s are so well tracked and have so many available data points they rarely move on results.

The move comes over the next few days as people digest results as a whole and any comments on where we are in the cap ex and oil price cycle

We’re seeing some rare strength in the sp at the moment, with a mixed oil price 12m curve I expected us to drift lower after sanctions. A mixture of a few things

1) Market expects more and tougher US sanctions

2) market expects US to go further on SPR refill

3) market reacting to new strategy and starting to be repriced via peers

4) market expecting a beat on results

5) FED cutting cycle making income stocks more and more attractive with each cut

Some macro, some micro. Sold a £11k holding at 4.31 - have I shot my load too early? Let’s see, wouldn’t be the first time

Never good to hear about downtime at refinery’s but glad to see no one was injured or worse. Very high risk environment so I’d rather they shut down than take unnecessary raises with peoples lives

This is big, the first time trump has actually moved against Putin. Oil has been heavily shorted amongst the supply glut everyone was forecasting. Tomorrow there will be some oil price strength as positions are unwound or people buy to cover.

I’m not going to say there will be any reversal in flows as this won’t happen - but strength in oil price will be apparent but limited.

The best cure for low oil prices is low oil prices as they say.

The Trump administration will purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), with deliveries set for December and January. #OOTT

Quick back of the napkin maths

4,400 employees gone at an average 100k all in cost per employee = £440m annual saving

Flex the average figure up/down as you see fit, but that alone must funds the divi increase per year before any cash flow growth, further cost saving or asset divestments

I’m waiting to see what the massive amount of seaborne crude does to oil price in the next 2-3 weeks.

This could prove or disprove the oil glut narrative

There’s a disconnect between narratives at the moment between a massive surplus and the market being more balanced - hard to know the reality but the divi yields of OG players are attractive and will become more so in a rate cutting environment

As for price at the pumps, I don’t own a car and haven’t for five years but the money is made long before it gets to the pumps. Always makes me laugh when people get outraged at the retail network when traders and refiners pocket higher margins before it even reaches the tank

Two things on Iranian oil

1. Trump will only lift sanctions for a nuclear deal

2. Most of Iran’s oil is already on the market via ghost ships. It may lead to a oil price decline if it happens but it’ll be short lived

Bit of a meh update but trading result is a little surprising, there hasn’t been huge volatility but sounds like the traders got caught out on some of the Middle East stuff the world saw in Q3.

Not much for the market to react to and SP will reflect more of the wider oil supply vs demand story than anything of note here.

Refining margins are up which is one positive bit of news

On LinkedIn *

Also funny serica are buying more North Sea OG as their CFO consistently pans Rachel reeves on twitter, he must be confident that she won’t last much longer longer

As long as there’s such a high windfall tax in place I’m

Happy to see bp divest North Sea O&G.

Why spend a dollar there to get taxed at 70%+ when you can spend it elsewhere

The govt have really messed this one up

I don’t think BP’s rosneft stake is a uk Russian asset?

Any equity value is in a company based in Russia (ie Putin controls)

Any dividends are based in a Russian bank account (ie Putin controls)

Starmer is talking about UK hosted assets (houses, football teams, yachts), not equity stakes

From what I’m reading in the media another trial will set the damages amount. Bp asking for over $1bn.

Assume this will go straight to balance sheet and funds another quarter of buybacks if the full amount is achieved

The shell CEO actually came out and said LNG investment is too high and the market will be over supplied last month.

Just looked at BP’s cmd presentation again, figures are based of $70 oil and a $71 2025 oil avg. looks like we’ll be there or thereabouts by year end. Which means there should be no negative surprises on the top line come full year results

Reading that Vitol have built a large North Sea crude long position - any reasons why?

Only thing I can think of is they see OPEC slowing production and a demand squeeze occurs in Europe

Excited for when the PR drops on their testing results, should materially move the share price if positive and will not be short of suitors although difficult to see anyone but Petrobras winning that due to country influence

The lower central banks rates get, the more attractive BP’s current low valuation is to large pension funds - this is what you need to consider.

SP only moves when the big boys buy in - this isn’t a tech or meme stock. We need institutional buyers coming in droves and hopefully this has started