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At least the SP is starting to show some signs of strength giving the economic vagueness, oversupply narrative and us going ex-divi today.

Still criminal for this to be

If people wish to ignore the geopolitics of the situation then that’s not going to impact me at all - I’ll be cautiously considering it here and acting accordingly.

For people who’d like to read more about the law: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-security-and-investment-act-guidance-on-notifiable-acquisitions/national-security-and-investment-act-guidance-on-notifiable-acquisitions

Of course there can be government intervention in a potential acquisition. There a law in which the government can ban the sale of strategic UK assets (NSI act) or to a less extreme extent, the CMA can step in.

Both are government actions/bodies. So not sure what you are talking about.

There’s also the more softer power element that the UK gov exerts, it’s geopolitics and most people on the board seem to see this as not impacting plc’s. I very much beg to differ.

To sensationalise the debt position the media will include things like lease liabilities, hybrid bonds and GOM oil payments into that debt figure.

It’s technically fair to do so but has caveats:

Lease liabilities - technically a liability as it’s payments the company has to make, but if the business is operating well they will be generating cash from the very same asset - so a potential buyer won’t really include this if the business is generating high FCF

Hybrid bonds - google these, very boring but can be included here

GOM payments - again can be classed as debt as it’s a liability until early 2030s.

If you exclude those three then the debt is something like $24bn iirc

Or theres a lower buyback this quarter so they arent rushing to get it all completed before next results, maybe?

Either that or someone at the FT owes Elliot mgmt a favour as there's constant articles aimed at boosting the SP

I’d hope the FT has a bit more journalistic integrity than just copying a Bloomberg piece. However if it does land on there they were one of the first to break the looney sacking and Elliot news so then isht becomes real

Hmmm the market price is made up of a number of factors, most of it macro, gearing and distribution levels so I picked the only quantitative metric we have available to us as PIs to assess confidence.

I agree, many are sceptical including myself. But as I said below, this isn’t a difficult strategy to execute. It’s bread and butter for a super major. The challenge for the exec team is to manage the turbulence of the next three years for the oil price and trying to keep shareholder distributions high whilst lowering debt.

Re: wiped out. If shell come in with an all cash acquisition at £4.50 a share and someone is holding at >£4.50 they get wiped out and are forced to realize the loss. As with most things in life, your level of influence is directly correlated with the amount of zeros in your bank account.

All hearsay for now though, how many times have we seen the exact article that got dropped yesterday.

Not being offensive, but it doesn’t really matter what your confidence level in Murray is. If the institutionals are behind him and the new strategy thats all that matters. And judging by the latest AGM, 98% of all investors are.

The new strategy isn’t all that complex which is why it should be achieved, grow production, cut costs, sell some businesses to pay off debt. There’s a reason only the three years view was given at CMD - it’s can all be accomplished in a short time frame.

As for holdings in any new joint entity, all depends on terms of the deal. Shells share price is undervalued so why would they use equity to complete the deal. It’ll have to be mostly a cash deal. At which point those with higher avgs will get wiped out sadly

I think the challenge here is price. Bp board know that if they grow cash flow by doing what the business is built for they can get back to the £5s+ in a few years. See Murray’s $200bn valuation comment. I think they’d require a massive premium vs today to even get discussions started. Shell could of course just buy on the open market, but then it starts to get hostile and under those circumstances I can’t see anything being done

We’ve all been saying it for two years. You can only stay cheap for so long. Shell knows it’s the “local” favourite to gobble us up and the UK govt would green light this deal. You can bet if Bloomberg has this leaked to them that the discussions are already ongoing with the govt.

A shame, it’s very likely the boards choice to elect looney over tufan E (now at RR) has consigned this company to history.

I’m struggling to understand why bp have just sacked their head of strategy after announcing a new strategy.

It all seems a bit of a mess up top if I’m honest. I understand this was Elliot’s first head on the chopping block, but there seems to be zero accountability and thinking ahead beyond 2027

Shell says it would rather buy back its own shares than bid for BP

“We will always look at these things, but you are also looking to see what is the alternative. Right now, buying back Shell [shares] for us continues to be absolutely the right alternative to go for,” Wael Sawan told the Financial Times.

These are subject to award in 2027/2028 and not today. They’ll only get them in full if they perform and meet their financial and operational targets, if they do well all be quids in. I think the board could look very different in 2027/2028 so maybe don’t get too hyped up about it now.

Scratch below the surface theres a bit to be positive about - understanding the broader macro chaos ongoing impacting POO.

Cap. Ex. $500m down for the year - assume this goes to part funding balance sheet or buybacks

Operating reliability at records in upstream

Buybacks still on the table to provide some SP support (at attractive levels)

Elliot looks to have claimed their first victim - proof they have sway with other investors

Divestments underway and guidaing 3-4bn for this year - thats the buybacks or debt reduction level target met

Clear comms focus on upstream progress

Wont turn this investor narrative round overnight, but largely agree with Murrays CNBC interview stating investors value growing FCF the most and thats where his focus is.

Encouraging but shares down due to reduction in buybacks, which i estimated earlier and sold out of shell as they will be the same, no more topups for me here as I have a fair whack in here and given the state of the world econ I'm sticking to ETFs

Doesnt really move on results, if anything I can see oilers going down as they reduce buybacks due to lower oil prices. I've got a £10k position in Shell I'm thinking of selling out of before they report, but I'm in too deep here so its a long hold for me

They hold options now so have no voting rights, they can of course add more.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BP./holdings-in-company-3teohyqwh6rya41.html

also an FT article out. no SP reaction so baked in.

BP Plc

BP.

: Morgan Stanley cuts target price to 377p from 450p

eesh, whilst I dont usually pay attention to equity analyst price forecasts... a sub £4 target price is horrific

There are no final salary pensions in place anymore