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Strong move upwards on the first decent earnings call just shows how undervalued bp is. All of this board has known it for a long time.

Yesterday was the first hint that things have fundamentally changed and the market is reacting positively

Long way to go, change oil price sentiment will impact us but finally the SP is moving

I very much agree on the cuts happy, despite seeing many people I know leaving the business there’s a level of acceptance that this is what it is. Those that are left have to pick up the pieces of yet another re-org and the instability it causes for c: 12 months after it finishes.

If I’ve discovered one thing here. It’s if I’m going to have a long career here it’s better to be lucky than good when it comes to re-org. I’ve stayed in position for the last four years, three of the positions I’ve applied to in this time have been cut - so whilst I haven’t been able to move roles (lots of reasons) I’ve survived the cuts so far

They’ve change the financial frame from the looney days in the new strategy announcement.

Strong results - strong operationally which is all LTH should really care about 96% reliability for both upstream and downstream is strong, but the minimum we should expect as investors imo.

All parts of the business seem to be picking up which is promising despite lower oil prices.

Still very much a hold and here’s hoping for more oil price volatility going forward. Agree that cash should just go to balance sheet - buybacks are pointless at this stage

4% of outstanding shares held in treasury, seems high? No?

Can you let me know where I’ve painted him as a saint?

I’ve simply stated things seem to have been in action long before the FT reported on Elliot’s involvement and provided a timeline as to why I believe this to be the case.

Not really rewriting history. Just stating the facts.

FT Rumours of Elliot’s stake came through on Feb 8th 2025

Here’s major announcements that broke before that (unconfirmed) story in Feb 2025

- Jan 2024: MA announced as CEO

- Apr 2024: reorg to exec team

- Aug 2024: MoU on Iraq O&G signed

- Sept 2024: bp announces intention to divest US onshore wind

- Dec 2024: puts offshore wind biz into JV and off balance sheet

- Feb 2025: seeks buyers for German refinery

These things take months to approve and then actually transact - do you think MA actually went to the board and went yep, I’m not going to change anything.

New strategy announced on feb 26 wasn’t the go live date for new action. It’s been in action for >12 months already.

We don’t know how long Elliot has been building influence for - but to say they are responsible for cure t activity is a bit far fetched when they don’t even have a board seat to vote on strategy matters as of mid 2025, let alone in mid -late 2023 when CEO interview process was ongoing

Let’s not get the timeline twisted

BP’s reset would have been underway when MA was appointed, what he is implementing now would have been his pitch to the board when interviewing for the role

Elliot came on the scene 6-9months later, their presence may have sharpened the focus and heaped pressure on, but they are in no way responsible for the actions underway- they only own c: 5% and even less in voting rights and have precisely zero board seats.

I’m sure I read a piece of media speculation that said bp needed $10bn+ for a sale of castrol to be worth it.

If they can’t obtain that figure then it has to be a minority sale, why lose control of the asset if you can’t get what you want for it.

All priced into current share price by now however as both are already understood to the market.

Have to wait for more info on where the impairment comes from. Hopefully it’s a reevaluation based on fwd oil prices and not a “we paid too much for x”

I can’t remember what the guidance said the trading result is but I think it was “good”. This should be encouraging to bottom line returns at modest oil prices. Only other metric is operating performance, if this comes good then the narrative starts to build which is what we need to head back to 4.50+

RSI at 68.5 and has been >60 for a week.

Let’s hope with the US onshore sale and new chairman that buying strength is set to continue. We’ve notched up a couple of % each day over the last week despite flat oil price. Encouraging sign that institutional buyers are starting to load up maybe?

Probably more to do with our uncompetitive cost structure in the UK, cheaper / larger refineries nearby in Europe…. which is indirectly to do with the Westminster lot

A quick AI query for the assets listed states:

To estimate the market value of the wind energy assets you listed, we can use a benchmark value per megawatt (MW) of installed capacity. Based on recent data from the U.S. wind energy market, the average capital cost for onshore wind projects in 2025 is approximately $1.3 million to $1.6 million per MW, depending on location, turbine technology, and project scale D.

For a rough estimate, we'll use a midpoint value of $1.45 million per MW.

Based on the above and bp level of interest in each project value is worth roughly $1.875bn

This value seems very high to me so maybe take with a pinch of salt

That’s hardly a difficult prediction to make giving the view on supply/demand balance at the start of the year!

Can’t see bp adding 30% in six months. Even with a resilient $70 oil price as it seems to be at right now

Amazing that it’s taken 3 months since opec and trump disruption to get back to £4, especially when you consider the US bombed Iran during that time.

Anywho the impairments mentioned sparked my interest. Hopefully just an accounting rule impact as future oil prices weakened in q2

POO holding $70 well despite OPEC unwinds.

Still a long way from the $75 we had before they started to unwind and trump tariff’d the world via chatGPT.

Seems to be more belief coming into the market that oil demand will stand up to added capacity. I take this as bullish as when the capacity is added back in and demand sustains (TACO) there’s nowhere for the price to go but up.

Still -8% on my GIA holding here after a few over zealous buys in the high 4’s. But the sharematch account is ticking over nicely, as is the option price on 2028 Sharesave (sub 3). Could be serious gains to be made on that one in a few years time. Fingers crossed 🤞🏻

Reading a lot of articles about how oil is range bound at $65-70. OPEC+ have nearly unwound its first set of cuts but are still sitting on spare capacity.

Id still rather be in oil than out at the moment. The geo risk premium has evaporated but with Isreal still sporadically bombing Iran it could reignite at any point.

Closer to home will be a tough couple of quarters for supermajors imo. Will see the impact of trumps tariff craziness flowing through come Q3/Q4 and who knows what that will look like. Let’s see if J Powell and crew start to lower rates soon. If not the demand picture remains pretty grim. Let’s see if my thesis on rather being in than out holds true into end of sept/start of October.

He has to say that to hype up his own company and his position as CEO of the last 2/3 years. He isn’t going to come out and say id rather buy bp shares when he’s been in the top job for a bit is he

Agree me or you, scratch below the surface of the outright employee numbers there’s businesses that have been added that should be accretive longer term (TA, bp bunge, LSP and a few smaller retail acquisitions)

As for the cash cow mentality, that was said when oil was spiking. Any ex cfo now in a ceo role will never have that mentality.

Never understand this comparison vs US oilers. Shell and bp run an integrated model, which means a downstream that has to be more employee simply as a function of more locations require more workers, heavy per dollar but allows them to optimise during low oil prices.

The comparison vs shell is fair on this basis