If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
Here's my view on the global econ (for what its worth, I estimate £2.50).
We had one huge slew of COVID money come into the economy causing inflation.
Therefore inflation impact will be one big hit (that we're mostly over now). Central banks (Fed, BofE, CEB) will manage it back down to 2-3% over the next 30 months.
Markets are returning to normality and US big tech remains largely in-line from a historical PE perspective, despite 'AI boom'. This means you simply have to be in the US big 5/6 or it'll be extremely challenging to beat the market. Also, are the big 5 really going to smaller or larger in 5 years time?.
As interest rates go down, the cash in savings account/mm funds flows back into the market... those who sought the safety of cash will have their head turns by reliable divi players. This should give a boost to the 'old economy' stocks referred to below. As econs start to grow again, mftg picks up, production picks up, construction picks up creating a mini boom for commodity stocks (O&G, mining etc.). FTSE becomes more appealing and lifts the index as whole.
£2.50 please
In short I'm long on US big tech (obvs) and large FTSE stocks who dont have too much exposure to the UK, but generate most of their cash overseas.
As a side I've got a portion dedicated to India and asia ex. Japan... China and India still the two fastest growing economies which will lift themsleves and the region (think US - Mexico impact). I think India is better positioned to grow as it has more native english speakers vs. China (and a more trad. capitalist govt).
Looks like it'll be a solid weekend meoryou,
Kicked off my GIA this week - couldnt resist a [small] dip back into Shell & bp as part of my UK leaders portfolio. Exactly the type of co's I need to balance the portfolio along with UK listed miners and banks.
Enjoy the sun!
Interesting you're done with it Gingy! if bp has taught me anything over the last 2-3 years is it trades like a Yo-Yo on sentiment alone. There's an easy 10% + Divi to be made here if you buy c: 450-475 - OPEC has set its stall out and bp's business keeps generating cash. Bit boring, but reliable.
Not oil price related, shell up 1.3% today, bp down 1.9% A 3% swing. Market didnt like the earnings miss and future downward pressure will compound for bp as oil demand looks like it is weakening from the highs of 90
Assuming 100k employees, thats 6.5k per employee(!) - makes me wonder how many shares senior leaders are getting because the share rewards are practicaly non existent for first level leaders & below
Happy,
Largely agree with what you said but the TA acquisition was a very good purchase - unlocks many sources of value for bp in the worlds largest market.
Archea I’m less convinced at considering bp paid $4bn+ , the boed it will produce is miniscule and it will take capital away from o&g to produce it.
I agree, a major shift in strategy means the entire board should resign. They’ve shown their incompetence in signing off the original strategy and now they want to keep their cushty six figure roles when a major pivot is required? Not for me.
Seems to be just rumour at the moment, but what did I say when MA got the job? He has 6months to reverse the pullback on O&G production and looks like he’s going to do it in five.
No smoke without fire, I anticipate he’s going to pullback and the share price will react accordingly
Hugely impressive from shell - What a business they have on their hands - still think the value play is bp however.
Shell can complain about their valuation vs. US oilers all they want, but they cut divi's rapidly during COVID which the US players did not
As most of you know, I'm not sure we'll see any major movements on earnings - mgmt has set out its stall for the next 2 years re: buybacks and I anticipate any good news re promised 4% uplift in divi's is baked in. Based on other oil majors it seems this earnings is set to be a non-event. Q2 may be more interesting as it looks like we're sustaining 85-90$ oil... which starts to raise the prospect of potential M&A as oilers are just generation so much cash.
As always, its pointless focusing on the day to day, zoom out to 2 years+ I say and base your actions on this.
It seems there is no earnings call as such, just an opportunity for Q&A - strange and v different to how its done before. MA did look a touch nervous when presenting full year (albeit he recovered strongly) - I wonder why they arent giving a small 10-15min presentation as always
Not targeted at anyone just thought bp nailed it on the head when it made clear it was higher than the UK increase 😂
Wow you blew through that! Holiday must have been relaxed! Glad you enjoyed, I can also recommend “dying for oil” - it’s about MBS, quite the eye opener
Perfect. Pensioners always be wanting more for nothing.
In this regard, it is notable that the 5% increase on pensions exceeds the salary increase awarded to UK employees and is only marginally less than the December 2023 RPI figure. Moreover, over the last ten years bp pensions have increased by more than the increase in the consumer price index (CPI), which is used by the government to calculate the cost of living
Even though I sold all of my position on Friday - I agree with MarkGo - fundamentals here remain strong and I wouldnt be worried if I was a shareholder. If OPEC maintains cuts this year will be another strong one, combined with more tempered language from Murray the bp investment proposition could turn on its head