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I wouldn’t touch bp shares with a barge pole currently

Completely uninvestable from a corp. gov. Perspective

If they can’t even sort their top team out what hope do they have of growing the valuation

You can’t really hate on bp management if you bought at >£5 a share

That is a poor investment decision especially given the horrendous share price performance since looney took over

What is going on at the top in bp

Absolute shambles and completely uninvestable currently

Probz would have nudged the debt down more but that working capital build is huge so think we’ll see more as it unwinds

Getting 81.5% at an AGM for a chairman is a disaster

Lund got 74% in his last one last year for example

It shows the board got the decision completely wrong

Manifold only got 81.5% of the votes

This is pretty embarrassing on his first AGM. What is Amanda Blanc playing at bringing a chairman in that gets such a low vote after only 7 months in role.

I’m losing a lot of confidence in bp top to bottom. Constant poor decisions after poor decisions and highly paid management that seem to perform poorly then bounce into higher paid roles externally

Exactly the same fleccy, not touching this until sub 4.50 again.

It struggles to hold any gains outside of macro events. Been caught once with a large holding in the high 4s.

Not again.

Besides US tech looks cheapish on a valuation basis so more opportunity here

I’d hazard a guess at the working capital being cash calls required for positions (margin calls/hedges) to protect their downside risk

This tells me they put on some pretty chunky positions over the Feb and March which is why the result is classed as exceptional

Trading is really a Jewell for bp, a Jewell locked in a. Black box

Fleccy,

Putting troops on to islands leaves them sitting ducks to a large scale drone attack - any US talk of this is just talk - both sides know it’s suicide to take a small confined area of land

You can fill it with as many marines as you like, it doesn’t change this fact

50k marines isn’t enough to take Iran

For Iraq the US had 200-300k ready to go on day one. Iran is much harder, richer and geographically challenging place.

I don’t get the Kharg island logic - troops would be stranded and sitting ducks

Worse than Iraq *

I’d say they always have the option not too

5/10k marines is doing nothing, to wobble the country you need hundreds of thousands surely - it’s a 90m population guarded by mountains. Geography is worse than Iran

If they dump 5k marines on one of the islands that’s $150 oil overnight

… in the markets. Investors no longer buying trumps TACO, I can’t see boots on the ground personally, it drags the US into another years long war of attrition.

Fully expect the US to start negotiating again, a ceasefire on US strikes and calm to return to the markets.

…. If not, I fear for the world

It’s standard finance parlance to include buy backs as shareholder payouts - what the ft are referring to is TSR (Total shareholder returns). This is the divi yield + Buy back % and allows a complete comparison across companies in the same sector (it’s all cash being allocated after all)

You might not agree with it, but it’s like trying to fight the use of adj. ebitda - you’ll never win

There’s always open communication through war, wouldn’t read too much into the propaganda both sides are putting out.

Simple facts remain, Trump has boots on ground being prepared, SoH is still largely closed, we are 2 weeks away from oil markets going crazy. Time is ticking.

Fair play to those still holding, this is a rollercoaster and too hard to guess. I’ve repositioned into some contrarian software stocks which are heavily beaten down.

I wonder if Elliot have sold out of their holding - would be quite a quick 30/40% return i think they’d be stupid not to take

Trump won’t put a US strike on energy infra

This is a classic consolidation phase of a stock that’s gone vertical - first sign of any share price weakeness and it pulls back as people consolidate

It’s v healthy for it to do this during a macro event as it shakes the tree and sets up the stock for the next catalyst. I mentioned yesterday how the stock was extended so this is very much expected.

If boots go on the ground then expect a boost for oil stocks as they’ll be heading to claim oil

Fields first

I think we’ll see a dip once the Iran stuff if over - gotta remember this was struggling to hold 440 before Trump started amassing troops in the ME

I’d say there’s a <1% chance of a takeover bid in the next 24 months

Energy security is too high on the agenda for governments to wave through a mega merger. In fact the political ramifications of this are likely to benefit an oil and gas producer such as bp, increase cash flow opens the door to smaller m&a deals… however from the sounds of the exploration success in 2025 they have more opps than they can fund