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IB’ers are such cucks

They literally put price targets out on sentiment so there’s a chance they don’t look like they don’t know what they are doing

This opens the door to further energy infra attacks. Another oil tanker attacked just now in gulf of Oman

Just seen the French are entering - this does not just seem like a few days. This seems like a longer campaign spread across many geographies, this could go on for weeks with the obvious impacts on world markets. Scary stuff.

Trading wise - I’m holding bp (as mentioned before) I’ll trim in sections as the campaign goes and reallocate funds to emerging markets and US tech - love a counter cyclical investment

Makes sense shell is higher giving size of Qatar LNG

Rather muted response in oil equities, looks to be mostly priced in. However with Iran now attacking energy infra all bets are off the table. Holding for now. This could go much higher and I’m happy to take the price risk of the alternative

Maybe a verbal technicality - they can’t “close” the straight, it’ll be like the English closing the channel.

Iran can (and have) performed actions which ‘effectively’ close the channel however. By attacking one ship they spike insurance premiums and freeze ship operators - it’s not closed as Chinese and Iran vessels are still passing through,

Should caveat this market is nowhere near as liquid so can only be taken as an indicator until markets open

Oil market opens 11pm for Asia trading

https://www.ig.com/uk/indices/markets-indices/weekend-oil---us-crude

£6 would be a stretch.

But tomorrow’s open hold on to your hats people, recommend to sell in bunches as it’s so unpredictable. I have roughly 7k shares I plan to sell over the next few days. Ms Reeves will get some of it unfortunately.

Depends how long this goes on for. Expect index’s to open down on Monday, with only energy sector up. V high oil prices are negative for overall demand (ex. Energy) and they push inflation higher as it lifts cost of production for everything.

Here’s what I’d do:

Don’t try and be smarter than the market. Take advantage of dips in attractive companies and indexes.

I’ll reinvest profits here into emerging market funds, or try and pick up more SaaS/cyber security due to the recent pullback.

No crying in the casino after all

You aren’t drawing me into a political discussion on a share forum, not on a Saturday, not ever.

Enjoy your weekend

Sounds like this is the big one with trump calling for regime change and the amount of military build up. I don’t have a dog in this political fight but war is never good for the innocent that get killed

Any guess on oil price Sunday night? Could be $85+ and an historic day for oil price gains

Give it 1-2 years meoryou - Starmer reshuffle/resignation, Milliband gone and a failing labour needing to secure votes - the tide will change

Ps. Did anyone see milliband on sky news last week? Absolutely embarrassing he is anywhere near the position he is in, clueless. Even the presenter was laughing at him.

Thanks happy missed that! Too busy eating my cornflakes

Https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/results-reporting-and-presentations/quarterly-results-and-webcast.html

From first review:

Positives:

- strong operational performance again

- buybacks stopped in favour of balance sheet (debt)

- capex 2026 lowered which should accelerate debt reduction

- strong downstream performance- best year since 2019

Negative

- weak trading (although volatility was low)

- huge $3.5bn write off in gas/low carbon. Throwing the trash out before COE comes in

This was always going to be a bit of a nothing burger, assume the market will like removal of buybacks and heavily question where the $3.5bn write down is coming from

A Dividend cut would send the share price into free fall.

The market hasn’t seen the full impact of cost reductions in results yet - expect these to start flowing through soon

I’d like a new CEO to have a bit of ambition and actually grow the company, not just cut people as they don’t understand how to grow a company the size of bp efficiently

We will see

I’d hope the praise goes to manifold more, but don’t get it twisted, MA is responsible for pressing go on the cost programs ongoing (aka head count Reductions)

Let’s see if the new CEO deems if further cuts are required

If he does it won’t be until Friday or Saturday evening in true don fashion

It’s entirely viable that the oil price movement this week is thanks to USD weakening. Don’t ignore FX impact on oil price movement

Barclays always make me laugh - this was the same analyst and IB team that had a £10 SP target during Looneys reign. Anyway here’s their latest take below…. And only two years behind the market in coming out and saying bp needs to strengthen balance sheet. I wish I was an analyst, seems so easy

BP should double its cost-savings target to between $8 billion to $10 billion through to 2030, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes. This compares to its prior cost-savings plan of up to $5 billion by end-2027 relative to 2023. In a bid to strengthen its balance sheet, the British energy major should de-prioritize share buybacks, Rainforth writes. The company is likely to cut its quarterly buyback to zero, the analyst says. BP maintained its quarterly buyback at $750 million in November.

The below post is incorrect

The share schemes available to all employees are standard Save as you earn (SAYE) schemes as allowed by the government and in place at most other FTSE companies. Usual gov tax and holding term rules apply which limit the attractiveness (vs a world index fund).

You can beat the market if you’re smart about it some years. In others you’re better off taking cash and self investing.

Personally I use both schemes 1) when sharesave buy in price is attractive 2) as part of my broader investment portfolio as a bet on oil price / turnaround. 3) as a ‘forced savings’ and hedge against redundancy / buyout

I believe other mgmt schemes exist… alas, I am seen as too young to be in such a lofty important position (please note the sarcasm)