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He’s been incredibly wrong 😂

Me thinks it’s Wael having a few lols in between meetings

Results bit of a non event like I said a few weeks ago. MA has stated a fundamental reset of strategy which we all should be happy for

You also said it would be £3 after Q3 results - short memory or is it something more serious?

Sold one of my holdings today - still holding a bunch in other accounts but 7% daily gain and bp's inability to hold any strength swayed my thinking

Where’s this rumour from? This board? 😂

Worth adding that if we dont see any FCA disclosure by end of day its a minimal stake:

"Without Delay" generally means as soon as reasonably practicable, and ideally no later than the end of the following business day after the transaction that triggered the notification obligation.

Under the Disclosure and Transparency Rules (DTRs), individuals or entities that acquire, increase, or decrease their holdings in a PLC's voting rights to reach, exceed, or fall below certain thresholds must notify the company and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

The key thresholds are: 3%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50%, and 75%.

These notifications aim to ensure transparency about significant ownership changes that could potentially influence the company's control.

Maybe a storm in a teacup if no FCA notification?

Shell down a % today and bp up 6% so assume this news has caused a 7% swing in share price.

Interesting times indeed, didnt expect this much of a reaction which tells me a lot about how the market views it - hardly ever a 7% day in O&G.

Hopefully it doesnt get ugly, but I can imagine strong discussions are being had, not ideal leading in Q4 results and a CMD...

I guess we’re all looking forward to analyst Q&A now - even more so the next shareholder meeting to see how the voting pans out

Don’t normally post on weekends but this is pretty sizeable news in my opinion. Why?

1) $70bn AUM of Elliot capital is not insignificant- there’ll never be an acquisition play but at this level they could pull a syndicate together with influential industry players who have the govt connections to pull it off

2) it starts the firing gun that bp is now ‘in-play’, severely undervalued and billions to be made via a restructuring of the business

3) undermines the board and CEOs position just ahead of Q4 results which don’t look to be great (segment wise) and before a crucial strategy update

I’m left here still wondering if us lot of reprobates can clearly see BP’s sleepwalking into this problem why didn’t the board do something? Simply pulling forward the strategy presentation to Q4 last year could have reset the tone about their capability.

From outside it seems like they’ve sleepwalked into this situation

Thanks for posting - interesting article - these 2 parts are particuarly damning but I guess why we're all invested:

First, consider BP’s oil and gas exploration business. The unit is expected to bring in around $29 billion of EBITDA in 2025, per Visible Alpha. Strip out $3 billion to exclude what analysts estimate comes from trading activities, which could fetch a higher valuation separately. Then place the upstream business, which produces 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, on a 3.5 times EBITDA multiple, per a Stifel-compiled average of European peers. Overall the unit would be worth $90 billion – only a little more than BP’s entire current market value.

Throw in just under $9 billion in renewables, as estimated by Bernstein, and a $2 billion drag from the corporate unit, and the sum of BP’s parts could amount to $193 billion, Breakingviews calculated. Strip out about $59 billion of net debt plus leases and other liabilities, and the equity would be worth $134 billion. That’s 57% above BP’s current share value.

What metric multiple are you basing off for 10-15x valuation? P/E? EV to Cashflow?

Something tells me this extremely weak takeover rumour is started by a minnow investor in an attempt to pump the SP.

Never experienced a trade war whilst being heavily invested in O&G - what are people’s thoughts on oil price impact? Seems pretty damaging to both the supply side and the demand side

Bp and shell are much much bigger than milliband - he is but a speck of dust in two massive global businesses. Let’s see where he is come the next cabinet reshuffle (18m away)

I hope the board do understand the strategic precipice they are on. I’m for the IEC strategy and think it makes sense in an uncertain world… but cutting the cash machine down *voluntarily* did not and still does not make any sense. Bp can absolutely continue to grow both O&G and the returns generating renewables businesses together, especially now it seems we understand what makes money and doesn’t make money. Establishing successful renewable business in favourable geographies early on will payback when the winds change in other slower markets (eg. Post trump). I’ve said before, Total are super impressive. I wish I knew what I knew during Covid as total would have been my bet to get shares on the cheap.

What worries me however is the lack of change in the exact board and exec team that crafted the strategy in 2020. The biggest test will be if they can swallow their hubris and reinstate BP’s oil production through to 2030, fill the hopper back up to what it was pre covid and we can all enjoy the share price gains together.

Agree meoryou - I dont want to put too much emphasis on this single strategy update but Feb 26th is existential. Get it right and the bulls will be out in force, largely offsetting a flat oil price picture. Get it wrong and we'll be bought, chopped up and the pieces sold within five years.

Just a thought - read an analyst note that cited bp may lower CapEx guidance if bp pulls back from the renewables investment. This would free up a few bn per year to lower debt, maintain buybacks or push the divident up... 2 out of 3 would be bullish for the SP.

Lets hope they dont use it as an excuse to maintain buybacks and support the divi or debt some more.

We're just following the brent price retreat back into the 70s. Brent down .25% today, bp down 0.4%, shell down 0.5%.

Tone has been set for Q4 results by the trading statement. I for-judge them to be 'meh'

Trumps also said he wants to refill the SPR by 300m barrels - which in my mind raises the price. US production system is tapped out. Its just noise from him.