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Better asking MBS than us ragtag bunch of misfits

Shell sitting on $38bn in cash as of Q2 w/ $10bn of debt. bp at $33bn and $21bn (From memory)

bp market cap today is $86bn, premium of 20% gives = $103bn buyout

Central bank rates coming back down.

There will be a sweet spot where bp valuation, financing rates and the cash/debt positons of both companies, make this incredibly value accretive for Shell.

Cannot see shell moving for bpbefore end of 2025. I think their CEO will want to see his plan through as he's new to the role.

We'll have problems if trump gets in as well as he'll open the taps boosting supply - I dont take any notice of the IBs and their oil price targets,

We'll see a pullback from BBs at $72 oil, but not by much - its still a healthy margin and the divi uplift p.a. is sustainable at $60 brent.

If they keep them going at the current clip, interesting to see how they fund quarter to quarter to hit the $14bn amount - a mixture of debt and cash I guess?

I very much agree, but I also invest in single equities to learn how the market works in specific industries. The lessons learnt in tech and O&G since covid have been invaluable and luckily I’m young enough to have plenty of time to apply them in the future.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

All part of a balanced portfolio

I question why people invest in cyclical stocks if they can’t handle a bit of negativity - never mind I’m sure someone will pick up your shares if you don’t want them.

Recommend people stick to index/ETFs if they can’t handle volatility

API Inventory Moves

Crude -7.4 million

Gasoline -300,000

Distillates -400,000

Cushing -800,000

SPR +1.8 million

I think its the trading algo's of the big boys personally, so correleated to oil price and sentiment that any movement downwards just gets amplified each time until they burn themselves (their logic) out. It's almost like a scale, when more pressure gets put on oil price we drop until the algo's load up the other side to reach equilibirum until the next major newsflow.

The above makes sense in my mind (not sure if thats a positive or not.)

Exactly, Brent down 5% on the day. Does anyone know how many days of >5% drop there has been in the last 10 years?

I'm not sure its a question of how low will this go, its at what point does it become so cheap a takeover is inevitable, sending shivers through the FTSE and the govt.

Market cap just dipped under £70bn - scary cheap on an earnings basis. Worrying times if I was the BoD.

Good to hear you enjoyed them meoryou, hope the holiday was fun.

For your next I can reccommend two more, one of which I've read and the other I'm working my way through.

1. The Trading Game - Gary Stevenson - info: a self written expose of Gary's time as a young trader, I watched his youtube a lot before this release and came away from the book thinking he's actually quite entitled and thinks he doesnt have to play by his employers rules. Good read nonetheless (if a little fantastical): https://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Trading-Game-A-Confession/dp/B0CJ9QWFY1/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2FEUR5CTB279P&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.mBCN8O4EuxMG-cVTf8KHTZ2ZSjcjD7HfcSav322SDiA36A0ieGmjw0UUfwYjDXPJ1h-F9VCIn2EAmdBsLzgNjTnyDm4q4byoS9vDscQJyua4tUhroxtoqYKYAcrLpDqNUpoM_a8--S3jm1DFMMuB9p0hyk6CyOBlIPIRE84ewcUgOnq2XTaC8xUc5kGsT76MEREn3x5k9ewhdlJs5QJu1lAX21GlgZWntPqQTuYVi88.N7GXkoVytmPQPVV1-0ZwGyRn22cM28-RaOaMrEsMl6g&dib_tag=se&keywords=the+trading+game+gary+stevenson&qid=1725283660&s=books&sprefix=the+trsding%2Cstripbooks%2C106&sr=1-1

2. This is how they tell me the world ends - Best book I've read (Currently reading) on cyber warfare and zero day exploits, frightening in lots of different ways but each chapter can be a little dense to get through so tend to only do one or two at a time: https://www.amazon.co.uk/This-They-Tell-World-Ends/dp/1526652536/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=

Crude -3.4 million (exp. -3 million)

Gasoline -1.86 million

Distillates -1.4 million

Cushing -486,000

SPR +700,000

Oil market is just incredibly bearish right now

Got out of this after last fundraise after being in since inception, absolute joke of an AIM share that exists only to enrich BoD. You're all being spun a yarn about the potential of HE1. The dilution will be forever coming, they've had >3 years to run a successful drill program and have consistently failed whilst the cronyism has allowed private placings to quadruple their cash on each raise. It stinks. Luckily I got out clean, but massive word of warning to those new to this company.

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/BP-Buys-Stake-in-Chinese-Sustainable-Fuel-Firm.html

Good comment Buffa, I'm generarlly less bearish than you and think we are just in a period of negative sentiment whipped up by media and some downwards China demand data. Saudi need $95 oil to balance their books, they are currently running a budget deficit, general consensus is US wont be able to match 2024 production in 2025 and the election could mean all sorts of changes trade-wise. Russia/Ukraine is heating up with the UKR incursion into Russia, Israel Iran still a mess despite Blinken's huge efforts. Consumer demand from most US earnings calls still strong, only a few flashing amber signals (which could be segment related). There's a reason Amzn moves up when the likes of Target and Walmart say they see no signs of demand concerns. US dollar will weaken but its been on a storming run.

I applaud you putting a timeline to your SP estimate however, not many are willing to do so.

-4.6m confirmed!

there's an awful lot of tightening but the us is a buyer at below $79 so this provides a base for the oil price in the short term. just seen how depleted the spr is vs. historical norms. this + record us production is what it has took to offset opec cuts and keep oil in the 75-85 range. no wonder the us is so active to keep the middle east peaceful. an oil price spike before an election and with such sp**** reserves would be very painful and expensive.

because of the record production and sp**** spr, i feel the world is waiting with baited breath to see how china shakes out over the next few months and if the govt. intervention has any impact.

When RSI is low I dont expect buybacks to show through other than provide some support when buying power is weak, however when its high this is where we'll see the most impact, as buybacks will continue at the same time large funds will move back into the stock. Not special to bp, this is how I treat buybacks irrespective of stock ticker.

Fully agree - Blinken has already showed his hands on friday by coming out and saying a deal is close. Then Hamas came out and said its not. His strategy is media grandstanding and I dont know how a few days visit from a US official is going to 'undo' whats been done in the region (by both sides).

I expect Hamas to walk away from the negotiation as we've already seen how stubborn Mr N. is and then god knows what will happen. I hope its the least destructive way possible but Iran will want their revenge. tit-for-tat.

Always best to keep in mind that analyst commentary doesnt have any checks and balances - they say what they want with little to no recourse or tracking. And I say this both for the HSBC downgrade and the ludicrous £10 barclays reccomendation. For the most part, ignore them.