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Swing and a miss happy,

Britain’s National Security and Investment (NSI) Act came into force in 2022, giving the government power to intervene in acquisitions on national security grounds in industries including energy.

UK governments have in the past told London-listed BP that they would block any takeover attempts by foreign entities given the company's strategic value, people familiar with the matter told Reuters. It is unclear whether the current government would take the same position.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/uaes-adnoc-recently-eyed-bp-takeover-target-sources-say-2024-04-11/

I think the only politically palpable move is for Shell to buy us, and I reckon there would be a backroom deal struck with the govt that they remain UK headquartered for 10-15 years & guarentee x billion UK investment into renewables. The govt would have a field day in laying out conditions for purchase... but maybe, just maybe Wael fancies it.

When Looney got cut I stated he'd reappear in the middle east earning more than he ever did at bp - looks like I wasn't far off.

In other O&G news, just took an L on my neste investment - biofuels markets look to be tanking from what I'm reading in the press (FT, Shell PR, Bloomberg) so got out, but my hands sure are burnt!

Is everyone not getting taxed to the hilt currently?

My local chelsea and fulham turned labour by just 150 seats, so did my northern hometown - ecstatic.

See ya Rishi

result already priced into SP however, bit of a non-event in the O&G SP world imo

Good report from UBS, toped up £8.8k this morning - oil is bullish and so am I. Shell remains near ATH, bp remains the value play.

Don't play in US oilers as I don't know enough about their business, but they must be creaming the cash atm

@Mark, nice estimate on the crude build - any lottery forecasts?

Seems the market doesn't believe the demand side of the equation yet - If it did we'd be £5+ at these levels.

at least OPEC is showing its in control of the market, lets hope they are more careful with the phrases they release so the oil price momentum continues

Said it before, oil price sentiment drives around 20% of the share price currently

I'm currently trading on this and this alone. Sentiment turned bearish so SP dropped, news stories of record jet demand, summer driving season indicate it's starting to turn bullish again - see the rather rapid climb back to 85$, a few week on week crude draws and we'll be back to £5+ and an easy trade.

Remains to be seen what OPEC will say at their next meeting (is it august?) but think they'll think twice about how they craft their comms after their previous statement sent prices down

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1050040/bp-tipped-to-see-growth-from-us-shale-business-1050040.html

BP PLC's (LSE:BP.) American shale business will be a large part of the group’s growth over the remainder of the decade, analysts at RBC today highlighted in a note.

RBC, which rates BP at ‘outperform’, believes that the oil majors investment plans are shifting away from ‘transition growth engines’ (effectively a pseudonym for ‘net zero’ projects) in favour of upstream business, albeit, RBC notes that this has yet to be formalised as a strategy by BP.

All divi info can be found here: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/shareholder-and-dividend-information/dividends.html

Forever and always!

I am but a lowly worker bee I'm afraid

Very true, a lot of commentators already stated the increased need for electric power which should hopefully bring upwards momentum.

I'm still waiting for MA to make his 'big bang' as CEO, $2bn in cash cost savings isn't ambitious enough - Anyone know if we have an investor day coming up? Hopefully he adds more clarity to his teased slowdown on renewables and rocket the SP back to where it should be.

I remain a bit more balanced, but confused to how we still struggle to mantain a £5 share price. when bp have promised to buy back a minimum of 14% of the company (vs. todays market cap), oil is stuck in a $75-85 range and OPEC have shown they effectively control the oil price.

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Markets-Have-Overreacted-to-OPECs-Plan-To-Phase-Out-Production-Cuts.html

Standard Chartered: the price undershooting was the consequence of markets being dominated by a combination of extreme macroeconomic pessimism; speculative shorts and over-enthusiastic algorithmic trading.

Standard Chartered: OPEC+ decisions will ultimately prove positive for oil prices.

Brent crude declined almost $8 from last week's high.

Bp-Shell JV - the regulators would have a field day

A move down in credit rating isnt always a bad thing - all about where this cash is being allocated too.

I am starting to question the longevity of buybacks however - $14bn over 2 years? Why wouldn't you uprate your divi with even half of that cash and boost your SP. Get the SP monkeys off your back in the first year of your job and secure those SP-related bonuses. We've bought back 16-18% of shares since COVID and the impact to the SP has been almost null. Why isn't the board questioning this?

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sp-lowers-bps-credit-outlook-stable-over-debt-levels-2024-06-03/

The agency downgraded the energy company's credit outlook to stable from positive while affirming its 'A-' long-term and 'A-2' short-term issuer credit ratings.

"BP's updated cash allocation strategy is less likely to result in meaningful further absolute debt reduction," S&P said in a statement.

The longer we stay in the £4s the longer the sharks will circle. I can't believe we're not being seriously looked at already, $120bn purchase price, sell off the renewables for $10bn, $30bn cash on balance sheet and the purchase price is $80bn before you look at enriching your downstream assets in high GDP markets, accessing a prolific GoM production base and US refining system and unlocking billions in cost savings and synergies (firing heads) if acquired by another major.

The only thing is if the UK govt has issued a hands-off warning, which every oil CEO will be very aware of.

See my knife edge comment from yesterday, hefty drop in POO and equities this morning.

holding strong at 460p buy price, been burnt before jumping in too quickly here