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That’s the one thanks meoryou!

Anyone see Exxon hit ATH today? Should send shivers through the bp board and get them asking themselves why isn’t bp doing the same

Hmm it might have been divi yield vs. bp share price come to think of it.

Cutting the divi by 50% killed the SP, slow walk back there but with a persistant $80+ oil price it seems like the board are hoping pure market fundamentals will cover up their questionable TSR policy of buybacks over everything. If $80+ persists the balance sheet has to get so strong they have no choice but to up divi >4% pa

Has anyone got the link that was posted recently that shows brent price vs. bp share price?

Don’t care about day to day movement, traders will be making a mint with upward volatility and this will flow through to results

Do we have a party or some sh**e?

The issue is people in the UK see wealth as anyone earning >£100k, when in reality its the hordes of family offices and multi-multi-millionaires we are happy to entertain with a 20% CGT rate. How can someone earning millions off assets and no productive work (ahem Rishi) get taxed at less than half the rate of someone earning £125,141??

Anyway back to oil - doesnt look like $90 will break but BofA has stated $95 oil is likely, for whatevers that worth

I can see labour rowing back on the recent Tory NI reductions, reintroducing the pension lifetime cap but leaving the dividend and CGT allowances alone (as they are already terrible vs. previously).

Giving that we are potentially 3 months away from an election at any one time its pretty harrowing that none of us can explain Labours fiscal policy today

US onshore drilling is already running at max capacity to offset OPEC+ production cuts. With oil at $89 guess who's winning?

Trump can say drill baby drill all he wants but he has little control in the world oil order with a domestic asset base that is already stretched. With Iran hotting up and sanctions likely to continue, the only tool the US has is further sanction reduction on Venezuela. OPEC+ is forcing the US to sweat the SPR and we haven't yet seen the true impact of this which will force prices higher.

Just in from the spectator, buckle up ladies and gents the ME is officially back in tatters

JUST IN: Iran’s state television reports that the supreme national security council has decided that a response to the strike on consulate in Damascus is required

Nothing but sunshine in London! Spring is here!

POO touching $88 now. Been waiting months for this up tick after jumping back in at 488/484, had to watch it go down to 445 but it now seems the supply tightness is hitting the demand picture head on just in time for q2 higher demand quarter vs q1.

Plan to sell around 520/525, I’m confident we’ll get there with OPEC+ now singing to the same tune

We get emails now, not envelopes ;)

I’m already maxing the sharematch and started in the lows of Covid when I first joined - the first tax free amount comes due end of Feb 2025! Nice little month on month treat when this kicks in!

We entered Q1 with brent at $77, its now at $87 - depends on your definition of quarterly gain.

Refer back to my previous post on not watching day to day movements, the 3 month price rise is strong and based on continuing bullish macro forces. If POO drifts in the 77-87 range all year I'll be a happy (and richer) man

Said it a million times before, don't get dragged into day to day movements if you're in an energy/utilities stock. We're so driven by macro forces that its wasted energy.

As long as I think the business remains undervalued, is generating healthy levels of cash, strengthening the balance sheet and continues to pay a competitive shareholder return for the sector I'm happy to hold, collect the divi and wait for the rise.

Macro factors I see are:

1. War is ongoing and disrupting energy supply chains

2. Inflation is coming down and supply remains tight, bullish for oil price

3. Saudi princes magic mushroom dreams of building ski resorts in the desert remain

4. US is now the worlds leading oil producer - if they slow production (e.g. political, operational reasons) then oil price booms

Genuinely an interesting development in the world of Russian O&G assets. I think the crux here is the payment is in roubles and Shell will have to eat any FX to get them back into USD. Also this has been sanctioned by the russian gov, so there genuinely isn't anything US/UK or the EU can do about the transaction itself. Shell will just turn around and say well this was a russian govt idea and we had nothing to do with it.

This seems to be much more a banking conundrum than an asset sale question - how will Shell get the roubles out of a Russian bank account? Will Putin allow them to transfer the funds out of Russia? Will western governments allow them to onshore the cash without heavily penalizing it? I highly doubt it.

Not sure what it means for bp-rosneft stake however, which is a sizable chunk bigger than a stake in an oilfield. Gazprom can eat a $1bn charge many times over, but can it eat a $12-$13bn charge to buyout bp at a time where putin needs cash for his maniac war? I'm not so sure.

Gingy* autocorrect

I’m afraid his brain won’t be getting enough blood now we are over £5

You have to admire Bluebells gumption - buy a tiny stake of O&G supermajor and push the PR machine hard, they are too small to effect change with the big boys in bp.

Always worth tracking: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/regulatory-news-updates-and-filings/trading-conditions-update.html

No comment! :D